Meanwhile in Ukraine

[C-Mag]

the Ukrainians aren't going to accept being landlocked

if Kiev doesn't fall, they'll counter attack

That doesn't really sound like a defeated Russia.

If Russia was defeated, why would Kiev's fall be an open ended question at this point ?
If Russia was defeated why would Ukraine have to counterattack to get to the Black Sea ?

I'm not sure you know what defeat means.

you can win many battles and still lose the war

ask America

you can lose many battles and still win a war

ask the Vietnamese

I'm not sure you know what strategy means

since all you can understand are tactics

and the bigger picture totally eludes you

The bigger picture like Ukraines supply lines getting longer ?
Five train stations destroyed in the last 24 hours. How will Ukraine continue to fight if they cannot get the logistics they need, in the quantities they need against Russia ? Russia now controls all of Ukraines ports on the Black Sea.

I'm more than happy to debate you, but I'd like to see some specifics from you. I can point to specific Strategic and Tactical events going on in Ukraine, can you ?

Then there are conditions moving forward. How long will the west send equipment to Ukraine, will that equipment get to the front lines, if it does, will Ukrainian or international mercenaries be able to employ it effectively ?

Russia's food supply is safe and producing. Ukraine is not producing any food. It's hard enough to supply an army in the field, now support an entire population that is resisting an invader and they have to import almost all their food and resources. Now you have train stations being taken out because they were being used to ship war equipment. Then you have a global food shortage happening and massive inflation. How long can the West afford to support Ukraine's defense. How's all this play out down the road ?

As a Grand Strategist schooling me, you should be able to answer these questions easily and with specifics.

[SuburbanFarmer]

wrong

Russia is selling less gas to Europe

and America is selling more

than prior to the war

and going forward

the pipeline that did an end run around Ukraine was canceled

and Europe wants to greatly reduce it's dependency on Russian energy

that's an obvious net loss for Russia

and a net gain for America

zerohedge doesn't tell you that

but that's the reality

How much LNG do you think we’re going to ship across the Atlantic when Europe doesn’t even have compatible offload points.

Russia is selling less gas because it’s fucking spring. By winter, the EU will be stocked up on rubles and the US will be in a crater it hasn’t seen since WW2.

Now that the energy trade monopoly is broken, collapse is inevitable.

how much gas is Russia going to sell with all those sanctions and their pipelines running through Ukraine?

less than before the war

America on the other hand will sell more than before the war

that's a net loss

everyone is still using dollars

even Russia

Russia wanting the EU to pay in rubles

is not the game changer you think it is

you can keep predicting the end of the dollar as the world reserve currency all you want

but the dollar is actually increasing it's market share

and the the rubles market share is shrinking

You haven’t been paying attention. There are no sanctions on Russian gas/energy. The EU realized they were slitting their own throats and backed off.

Then Putin demanded payment in rubles and they caved.

This is no longer a western-driven world. He won.

[C-Mag]

It's too soon to say anyone won.

I just want this to end before we have open war between the US and Russia.

NATO members failed to maintain solidarity on oil, it signals the West is less determined to ensure full Ukrainian sovereignty than the MSM tells us.

Ignoring Mr Putins control over European energy in this war is just stupid.

[C-Mag]

Ukraine needs almost 10,000 tons of food daily from abroad, according to a briefing document.

That's 500 Semi Trucks a day, or 100 rail cars and it has to be distributed across a nation torn with war with road damage and roadblocks everywhere, and their transportation infrastructure is not that good outside of cities. This does not include the fuel required to maintain constant resupply.

Now that rail facilities are starting to get hit, and no food production at home, food is going to become more of an issue.

[The Conservative]

It's too soon to say anyone won.

I just want this to end before we have open war between the US and Russia.

NATO members failed to maintain solidarity on oil, it signals the West is less determined to ensure full Ukrainian sovereignty than the MSM tells us.

Ignoring Mr Putins control over European energy in this war is just stupid.

Russia is in a better position now than it was before. The thing is, it has won the war with Ukraine, people are still funding Ukraine to keep it fighting though to bleed Russia in the long run, like how the US did with Afghanistan. I think this is a strategic move on the end of the "Global Elite" so they can rebuild their infrastructure and separate their needs/requirements of an individual pipeline/resource such as the pipeline that has gone through Ukraine.

Although it has gotten everything it wanted through Ukraine, I don't think Russia won the long war with the rest of the world. As I said before, Russia doesn't exist, it is an outside wrapper that is presented to the rest of the world. It is still the USSR underneath the facade. It has spies everywhere, it has power brokers, etc.

The UN and EU will play the game with Russia for a few years, to appease "The Bear" but Russia has overplayed its hand I believe, for the long con/game. It put all chips into India and China as a support system. China is not in a great position, and if Trump or some form of Anti-Globalist President comes into play, China, Russia, and India (which really is a third wheel in these dealings) will be hurt to the point that one or more countries could collapse from the whiplash.

America has its own issues, debt is controlled by China in some cases, so if China feels the pinch, it will call for its debt to be paid. The US paying it off will cause an inflation hit that will hurt in the short term, but if we are smart and can ride that pain wave, we will be a hell of a lot stronger in the long run if we can get our own finances under control. This can be nullified though if the US calls in the debt from the rest of the world itself, which before COVID was around 6.1 Trillion dollars. More than enough to cover any debt that the US may need to pay China back...

We would not want to call in all the debt, for doing so would ultimately weaken the US dollar because it would not be the "globalist dollar" anymore because it would not be held by many countries, but there is a caveat here in where we may just be able to wipe out a chunk of that debt from China in one swoop. China owes the US 1.1 Trillion in payments... Scratch my back, I scratch yours?

As for India and Russia, India can't get away from its own caste system, and this is one of its biggest downfalls. As "free" as they want to be, they aren't because if you are born in a specific caste or name, you are instantly shunned by many. That's not an opinion, it still happens.

Russia, well it's playing well above its metaphorical belt, it never recovered from the "collapse" but it is attempting to gain some sort of power back, by them pushing through Ukraine and other satellite states that are near its border is the way to do it. By playing the game of "conquest". The UN is accepting it because they don't want to play "poke the Bear" with a country that has nukes, they are afraid of how unstable Putin really is.

There are a dozen other small issues that come into play, but to go through them all would require a novella.

[Haumana]

because the Russians are not performing anywhere near well enough to take Ukraine

let alone hold it

Mariupol Schmariupol

the Russians have taken nothing of significance

and have paid a steep price for it

Orly? Based on what besides your opinion? Who said that their aim is to take all of Ukraine? Who would want to take Kiev? Whomever gets that is the ultimate loser. It would be akin to having to take on LA or San Fran in a lopped off California. Eastern Ukraine is now Russia forever. Odessa is the last puzzle piece to fall in place and control of the Black Sea is no small feat. Ukraine is looking to be landlocked and thus invaluable to NATO.

Russia's own soldiers have said as much

the plan was for Kiev to fall inside of a week

the Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators and sue for peace

if all they wanted was eastern Ukraine, they could have done that without the ridiculous invasion plan they executed at the start of the war

it could have been done without paying anywhere near the cost they've paid

the Russians can't hold the Black Sea, even if they take Odessa, that just increases the difficulty of defending the southern lines

the Ukrainians aren't going to accept being landlocked

if Kiev doesn't fall, they'll counter attack

the longer Russia leaves western Ukraine in tact

the more the calculus turns in Ukraine's favor

as they arm up with aid from the west

as Russia weakens themselves militarily

and if Russia takes the whole thing

that will be like swallowing a porcupine

no matter how the war goes at the tactical level from here on out

Russia loses

it's just a matter of how badly they lose

even if they "win", they lose

"winning" would be the worst of all world's for Russia

the occupation will drain the ever living fuck out of them

and tie up their whole military in the process


y'all keep tunnel visioning on the tactical

and ignoring the strategic

anything you think Russia is gaining out of this

is heavily outweighed by the cost to gain it

No it wasn't. You don't take 40k +- soldiers to take over a city of 3+ million, Strategic Master.. Ever. It was a fixing operation to draw Ukraine to defend the possibility while the real operation was happening in the east. Every time that they have taken a city it has been done with a 3 to 1 ratio, at minimum.

Keep rooting for the Nazis tho! I guess

[C-Mag]

No it wasn't. You don't take 40k +- soldiers to take over a city of 3+ million, Strategic Master.. Ever. It was a fixing operation to draw Ukraine to defend the possibility while the real operation was happening in the east. Every time that they have taken a city it has been done with a 3 to 1 ratio, at minimum.

Keep rooting for the Nazis tho! I guess

From what I can tell, Putin did something very Machiavellian and brutal. He used Russian reservists as canon fodder to advance on Kiev. Basically putting them out there to distract and pin down Ukrainian forces.

Some of these Russians captured said they didn't even know they were invading, they were doing drills in Russia, next thing they know they are in Ukraine without proper supplies. Putin just spent those fucking lives as a feint. That's brutal. Then he's been using lots of Mercenaries, Chechyen's, Syrians, Georgians.

[Haumana]

No it wasn't. You don't take 40k +- soldiers to take over a city of 3+ million, Strategic Master.. Ever. It was a fixing operation to draw Ukraine to defend the possibility while the real operation was happening in the east. Every time that they have taken a city it has been done with a 3 to 1 ratio, at minimum.

Keep rooting for the Nazis tho! I guess

From what I can tell, Putin did something very Machiavellian and brutal. He used Russian reservists as canon fodder to advance on Kiev. Basically putting them out there to distract and pin down Ukrainian forces.

Some of these Russians captured said they didn't even know they were invading, they were doing drills in Russia, next thing they know they are in Ukraine without proper supplies. Putin just spent those fucking lives as a feint. That's brutal. Then he's been using lots of Mercenaries, Chechyen's, Syrians, Georgians.

Yeah I heard all that and saw videos. But that only bolsters the reality that the intent was never to take Kiev.

I don't think I would qualify Chechens as Mercenaries though. Kadyrov just got a promotion in the Russian army.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Ukraine needs almost 10,000 tons of food daily from abroad, according to a briefing document.

That's 500 Semi Trucks a day, or 100 rail cars and it has to be distributed across a nation torn with war with road damage and roadblocks everywhere, and their transportation infrastructure is not that good outside of cities. This does not include the fuel required to maintain constant resupply.

Now that rail facilities are starting to get hit, and no food production at home, food is going to become more of an issue.

Bro, that’s 2 freight trains for a nation of 43m. They’re still growing plenty of food. We import 10x that in Canadian beaver pelts

[C-Mag]

Ukraine needs almost 10,000 tons of food daily from abroad, according to a briefing document.

That's 500 Semi Trucks a day, or 100 rail cars and it has to be distributed across a nation torn with war with road damage and roadblocks everywhere, and their transportation infrastructure is not that good outside of cities. This does not include the fuel required to maintain constant resupply.

Now that rail facilities are starting to get hit, and no food production at home, food is going to become more of an issue.

Bro, that’s 2 freight trains for a nation of 43m. They’re still growing plenty of food. We import 10x that in Canadian beaver pelts

I'm looking at the entire global situation and how it impacts Ukraine's ability to stop Russia and push the Orcs back inside their borders. When look at nations barely being able to feed their population right now, and add in Ukraine is trying to do all this and push back the Orcs, it's a heavy lift to do it all. Especially when the folks supporting you have their own very real problems.

Hell, I could be wrong. Maybe the Russian invasion is just Transitory