Monte Hall Hoax

[Fife]

How does the card trick work if I don't know which cards are red and which are black before I flip them?
If I do know - whence the probabilities? I am certain to get the card I want.

All of the Monty Hall explanations rely on Monty's knowledge of the car/goat arrangement and that the rules force him to reveal data on the location of the car.

It's not a card trick, it's a simulation. Have you ever read a poker book or chess book with practice problems? It like that, you have to abstract yourself. Give practicing as a 4D observer a try to study what happens. Keynesians just love experiments and data - I believe in you!

[DBTrek]

It’s lonely not being famous.

I bet disproving multiple fields of mathematics on the Monty Hall problem would make you famous.
Maybe even get you one of those "Beautiful Mind" type movies down the road.


I'm not a mathematician, so arguing with me won't bring you fame.
But if you can prove that all these mathematical minds operating in different fields have calculated the Monty Hall problem incorrectly - that would be global news. Fame meter would be sure to go up.

[Martin Hash]

Hmmm... Let’s see, all I have to do to be famous is get famous: being the world’s only blah, blah, blah isn’t enough; having the world’s only blah, blah, blah isn’t enough; achieving the world’s only blah, blah, blah isn’t enough. Damn, I need to transracial it all up in here.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

How does the card trick work if I don't know which cards are red and which are black before I flip them?
If I do know - whence the probabilities? I am certain to get the card I want.

All of the Monty Hall explanations rely on Monty's knowledge of the car/goat arrangement and that the rules force him to reveal data on the location of the car.

It's not a card trick, it's a simulation. Have you ever read a poker book or chess book with practice problems? It like that, you have to abstract yourself. Give practicing as a 4D observer a try to study what happens. Keynesians just love experiments and data - I believe in you!

Well, since we can't actually do the experiment, it still sounds like a magic trick.

[Martin Hash]

You do the experiment every time you pick between 2 things. Just play a video on loop in the background of everything that happened before.

[Fife]

How does the card trick work if I don't know which cards are red and which are black before I flip them?
If I do know - whence the probabilities? I am certain to get the card I want.

All of the Monty Hall explanations rely on Monty's knowledge of the car/goat arrangement and that the rules force him to reveal data on the location of the car.

It's not a card trick, it's a simulation. Have you ever read a poker book or chess book with practice problems? It like that, you have to abstract yourself. Give practicing as a 4D observer a try to study what happens. Keynesians just love experiments and data - I believe in you!

Well, since we can't actually do the experiment, it still sounds like a magic trick.

A *Bourgeois* Trick!

Lol OK man

You can do the experiment any number of ways, get friends to help out to protect the integrity of the randomness of the player's initial pick (the only random act in the game when played with an always switch or always stay strategy) as needed.

Use your imagination - be skeptical! Think critically! Don't take my word for anything, Lord knows.

[Martin Hash]

Let’s go back to DB’s 100 doors: by his logic, you should switch when Monte opens a door, but wait, we’re not done; Monte opens another door and asks if you want to switch again; but wait, there’s more: fucking Monte does it 98 times, virtually guaranteeing the very last time you switch, the 100th door is a car. Fucking A! Who would of thought flipping heads 99 times in a row to get the right answer was mathematically proven?!

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Someone who is good at math can check this, but the way I figure it, the whole thing rests on the undesirability of goats.

If I want a goat, I have a 2/3rds chance of winning no matter which door I initially pick.

Following the logic of the Monty Hall problem, that means my first choice is 2/3rds chance of winning, and the remaining doors have a combined 4/3rds chance of holding a goat.

Now, how does the math work out when Monty opens one of the goat doors? 66% chance sticks to my first choice, and now there is a 133% chance that switching gets me the loosing car?

That don't seem right.

[Fife]

Also always remind yourself that just because you are presented 2 choices, that doesn't imply a 50/50 probability of 2 possible outcomes.

If I provide you sufficient information to know - using only observed facts and logical reasoning - that one choice involves a 2/3 chance of an awesome blow job and the other involves a 1/3 chance of getting your johnson cut off by a nihilist, you ain't going to leave that decision up to a coin flip.

Probabilities update constantly under given constraints.

[Martin Hash]

Also always remind yourself that just because you are presented 2 choices, that doesn't imply a 50/50 probability of 2 possible outcomes.

If I provide you sufficient information to know - using only observed facts and logical reasoning - that one choice involves a 2/3 chance of an awesome blow job and the other involves a 1/3 chance of getting your johnson cut off by a nihilist, you ain't going to leave that decision up to a coin flip.

Probabilities update constantly under given constraints.

This is the same calculus Antifa uses: chances of getting a free big screen vs. chances of being convicted: big screen for the win.