Monte Hall Hoax

[DBTrek]

So far you all still think you’re smarter than me...

It’s just a statistical illusion: the odds are 50/50 once one of the goats is revealed.

Sorry, I didn't see this.

You're right on both counts. I think I am smarter than you and the odds are 50/50 on the second choice.

Only if a second choice is made.
If the initial choice with the initial odds is maintained, goat-revealing trickery changes nothing.
If you had a 99% chance of picking the wrong door the first time, Monty showing you the other 98 wrong doors hasn't retroactively improved the odds on that first guess.

Now you have a chance to make a 50/50 guess.
But your first guess was still 99% likely wrong.
So you want to stick with that, or move to the door that only has a 50% of being wrong?

[DBTrek]

You guys think: how can this unfamous guy possibly be right when all these famous people think otherwise?

No.
I'm thinking even mathematicians have been wrong on this one.
But, I'm also thinking that several different fields of mathematics have tested the problem, and they all disagree with you.

[Martin Hash]

Dude, I’ve presented my logic: 3 arguments, in fact. I have more degrees, I have more licenses, I have more experience, I have more books, I have more financial success; however, I am NOT famous, and that’s all that matters.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

So far you all still think you’re smarter than me...

It’s just a statistical illusion: the odds are 50/50 once one of the goats is revealed.

Sorry, I didn't see this.

You're right on both counts. I think I am smarter than you and the odds are 50/50 on the second choice.

Only if a second choice is made.
If the initial choice with the initial odds is maintained, goat-revealing trickery changes nothing.
If you had a 99% chance of picking the wrong door the first time, Monty showing you the other 98 wrong doors hasn't retroactively improved the odds on that first guess.

Now you have a chance to make a 50/50 guess.
But your first guess was still 99% likely wrong.
So you want to stick with that, or move to the door that only has a 50% of being wrong?

Choosing the same door twice is still making a second choice. Yes, my first guess was 99% percent wrong, but now that the ratio of goats to cars has changed, my second choice is 50/50 regardless of which door I choose.

The initial odds aren't maintained on the second choice, because there are fewer goats. It is not like my first guess locks a goat/car ration onto a specific door no matter how many goats Monty eliminates from the game.

[DBTrek]

Choosing the same door twice is still making a second choice. Yes, my first guess was 99% percent wrong, but now that the ratio of goats to cars has changed, my second choice is 50/50 regardless of which door I choose.

The initial odds aren't maintained on the second choice, because there are fewer goats. It is not like my first guess locks a goat/car ration onto a specific door no matter how many goats Monty eliminates from the game.

Well, the proponents of simple solutions, conditional probability, Bayes' Theorem, direct calculation, strategic dominance, quantum mechanics, and N-door theory all say you're wrong.

But Hash says you're right.

So ... 50/50 I guess.

[Martin Hash]

Choosing the same door twice is still making a second choice. Yes, my first guess was 99% percent wrong, but now that the ratio of goats to cars has changed, my second choice is 50/50 regardless of which door I choose.

The initial odds aren't maintained on the second choice, because there are fewer goats. It is not like my first guess locks a goat/car ration onto a specific door no matter how many goats Monty eliminates from the game.

Well, the proponents of simple solutions, conditional probability, Bayes' Theorem, direct calculation, strategic dominance, quantum mechanics, and N-door theory all say you're wrong.

But Hash says you're right.

So ... 50/50 I guess.

All of those use math, which is an abstraction; I presented 3 logical arguments which are not.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Choosing the same door twice is still making a second choice. Yes, my first guess was 99% percent wrong, but now that the ratio of goats to cars has changed, my second choice is 50/50 regardless of which door I choose.

The initial odds aren't maintained on the second choice, because there are fewer goats. It is not like my first guess locks a goat/car ration onto a specific door no matter how many goats Monty eliminates from the game.

Well, the proponents of simple solutions, conditional probability, Bayes' Theorem, direct calculation, strategic dominance, quantum mechanics, and N-door theory all say you're wrong.

But Hash says you're right.

So ... 50/50 I guess.

It is very possible that I don't understand the mechanism that attaches the first guess' odds to the first door despite subsequent guesses with different odds, so it appears to my weak and frantic chimp mind as magic. But, until it can be explained - looks a lot like magic.

[Fife]

In Soviet Russia, goat picks you!



Marxism takes hold because people want to believe that bourgeois math is a "capitalist" illusion.

National Socialism takes hold because people want to believe that bourgeois math is a Jewish illusion.

What if math is just math? Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Remember the rules, including:

Monty is NOT guessing. He knows where the car is at all times in every game.

Monty MUST reveal a goat before giving you the option to stick or switch. He always has at least one goat available for the revelation.

You always prefer a car to a goat.

No need to struggle against objective reality. I'll take DB's action in the proposed IRL game. In fact, everyone can try it for themselves, no charts or funny coding required. Take 2 red cards and 1 black card and run a few practice rounds. Run as many as you please, and as you chose to switch every time watch your winning percentage converge to .6667 the more you play. Try it when always sticking, and watch your winning percentage converge to .3333. If you have to convince yourself at that point that someone has tricked you from behind your sofa, well you're all set for the next Party rally. :TwistedEvil:

[Martin Hash]

It’s lonely not being famous.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

How does the card trick work if I don't know which cards are red and which are black before I flip them?
If I do know - whence the probabilities? I am certain to get the card I want.

All of the Monty Hall explanations rely on Monty's knowledge of the car/goat arrangement and that the rules force him to reveal data on the location of the car.