2020 General Election Predictions

[TheOneX]

So I decided to take a mathematical approach to this. I went through and looked at the difference in the polling in 2016 to the actual per state, based on 270towin.com data. I assumed that the difference would be the same in 2020 as 2016. Then I applied that difference to the current polling numbers, and this is the map the process came up with.



p.s. I should note that if you give Trump a 1% incumbent boost, Florida flips resulting in a Trump 288 to 250 victory.

[Haumana]

Is anybody else watching Robert Barnes and his "What are the odds" podcast? He lays money on political races so has an interesting perspective.

[The Conservative]

So I decided to take a mathematical approach to this. I went through and looked at the difference in the polling in 2016 to the actual per state, based on 270towin.com data. I assumed that the difference would be the same in 2020 as 2016. Then I applied that difference to the current polling numbers, and this is the map the process came up with.



p.s. I should note that if you give Trump a 1% incumbent boost, Florida flips resulting in a Trump 288 to 250 victory.

Mathematical would work only if the Leftists were on focal in their thinking.

[Martin Hash]

I don’t gamble. Wake me when the election’s over. (Next Feb perhaps?)

[C-Mag]

So I decided to take a mathematical approach to this. I went through and looked at the difference in the polling in 2016 to the actual per state, based on 270towin.com data. I assumed that the difference would be the same in 2020 as 2016. Then I applied that difference to the current polling numbers, and this is the map the process came up with.



p.s. I should note that if you give Trump a 1% incumbent boost, Florida flips resulting in a Trump 288 to 250 victory.

I like the approach

[TheOneX]

So I decided to take a mathematical approach to this. I went through and looked at the difference in the polling in 2016 to the actual per state, based on 270towin.com data. I assumed that the difference would be the same in 2020 as 2016. Then I applied that difference to the current polling numbers, and this is the map the process came up with.



p.s. I should note that if you give Trump a 1% incumbent boost, Florida flips resulting in a Trump 288 to 250 victory.

I like the approach

Yeah, it shows that the race may be closer than some think. At the same time, I think Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona could all go Trump.

[C-Mag]

I like the approach

Yeah, it shows that the race may be closer than some think. At the same time, I think Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona could all go Trump.

I based my Trump landslide on Trafalgar Group polling, which was accurate in 2016, and the enthusiasm gap.
Trafalgar predicts Trump will win approx 75 of the 100 toss up state electoral votes. Trafalgar have Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Florida safely in the Trump camp.

I threw in Oregon, because it was closer than people thought in '16 and the people of that state gotta hate, what the Commies have put them through this year.

[TheOneX]

I like the approach

Yeah, it shows that the race may be closer than some think. At the same time, I think Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Arizona could all go Trump.

I based my Trump landslide on Trafalgar Group polling, which was accurate in 2016, and the enthusiasm gap.
Trafalgar predicts Trump will win approx 75 of the 100 toss up state electoral votes. Trafalgar have Nevada, Arizona, Michigan and Florida safely in the Trump camp.

I threw in Oregon, because it was closer than people thought in '16 and the people of that state gotta hate, what the Commies have put them through this year.

Yeah, Oregon is my darkhorse for going Trump, but I'm not betting on it to switch. I also wouldn't be surprised if Maine went Trump. Still, I think both are still more likely to go Biden than Trump. I also think Nevada, Arizona, and Michigan are likely to go Trump, and Florida is all but guaranteed for Trump. It also sounds like voter registration numbers in these states are favoring R. So I think there is a lot pointing to the polls being even more wrong than last time. Like I said, an extra 1% towards Trump gains him Florida, but to go further an extra 2% gets him Michigan and Arizona. Nevada was a really close race last time, but you have to adjust the polls a lot to get them over the Trump line, so who knows.

[SilverEagle]

I hope you guys are right. God help us if Trump loses.

[C-Mag]

I hope you guys are right. God help us if Trump loses.

Oh, if Trump loses the revenge on any American known to support Trump, even if just on social media, is going to be ugly.