2020 General Election Predictions

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

You think those are the places Critical Race Theory takes root? The people working under the joint chiefs?

I get it. You think Trump will appoint us out of bad CRT. I think that is silly, motivated reasoning, and that federal agencies having a couple of wasted days listening to a diversity seminar isn't really the problem.

Vote for Trump if you think his Exec. appointments will strike a blow against CRT, but thinking that this is so convincing to anyone who loves America and liberty that there is no plausible way Trump can lose the national election unless it is stolen by commies, looks to me like a transparent cognitive bias at work.

It is worth noting that the 'my-side' cognitive bias seems to operate more strongly in better educated people with higher IQ. Probably explains why I am uniquely immune to that particular failing.

[Martin Hash]

So your IQ is off the charts?

I don’t know what you do for a living but it must not be science-based.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I think you misread the statement.

Having a higher IQ correlates with a stronger 'my-side' bias. My ignorance is my shield against this particular cognitive failure.

[Martin Hash]

I think you misread the statement.

Having a higher IQ correlates with a stronger 'my-side' bias. My ignorance is my shield against this particular cognitive failure.

Dude, I made the logical connection...

[Martin Hash]

Here's the deal: nobody's going to dismiss my judgment by saying I'm too smart, or too educated, or too experienced, or too rich, or too accomplished, or too anything. I do KNOW BETTER than you, I just don't try and force my beliefs on you. However, if you insist on insulting my judgment, I'm going to resort to the "Mutterfukker" defense. I've determined it's the most effective weapon I have against cretins.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I'm just saying that you are arguing that Trump is the last, and only defense against the end of America as we know it, and that a Biden victory is impossible unless it is stolen by a conspiracy of communists.

While I am arguing that Biden is a meh candidate that America will survive, and that Trump is not all that great, but America will survive four more years of him as well, and that both candidates have a legitimate chance of winning.

Which argument looks more distorted by cognitive bias - specifically the cognitive bias we know, with some certainty, effects smarter, better informed people?

The idea that this election is the razors edge upon which liberty is balanced, and that Trump is the only human on earth with the ability to save it, is pretty extraordinary - but as the boards honorary representative of the sheeple, I more or less believe whatever I last heard from the MSM, so I could certainly be wrong, and that extraordinary claim could be true.

[The Conservative]

I'm just saying that you are arguing that Trump is the last, and only defense against the end of America as we know it, and that a Biden victory is impossible unless it is stolen by a conspiracy of communists.

While I am arguing that Biden is a meh candidate that America will survive, and that Trump is not all that great, but America will survive four more years of him as well, and that both candidates have a legitimate chance of winning.

Which argument looks more distorted by cognitive bias - specifically the cognitive bias we know, with some certainty, effects smarter, better informed people?

The idea that this election is the razors edge upon which liberty is balanced, and that Trump is the only human on earth with the ability to save it, is pretty extraordinary - but as the boards honorary representative of the sheeple, I more or less believe whatever I last heard from the MSM, so I could certainly be wrong, and that extraordinary claim could be true.

Biden is a non-entity in this equation. It's Harris you got to worry about.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Biden is a non-entity in this equation. It's Harris you got to worry about.

As Pence pointed out in the VP debate, Harris has strong Law and Order credentials. I'm not too worried.

[Martin Hash]

As the boards honorary representative of the sheeple, I more or less believe whatever I last heard from the MSM

You'll listen to Journalism majors with an axe to grind and suspect motives, but you won't listen to the world's only-ever blah, blah, blah that runs a political board and has a half dozen political books. Sounds insulting.

I've mentioned this before but it bears repeating: I know of several people who know me personally, who have been over to my house for dinner, who've seen my degrees, my licenses, my books, my travel photos... But still voted for their tribe. When I asked who, they couldn't remember the person's name, and of course knew nothing about them. Remember, I ran "nonpartisan," so I wasn't even on the competing team. It's not like I don't have direct experience with this shit.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

As the boards honorary representative of the sheeple, I more or less believe whatever I last heard from the MSM

You'll listen to Journalism majors with an axe to grind and suspect motives, but you won't listen to the world's only-ever blah, blah, blah that runs a political board and has a half dozen political books. Sounds insulting.

I've mentioned this before but it bears repeating: I know of several people who know me personally, who have been over to my house for dinner, who've seen my degrees, my licenses, my books, my travel photos... But still voted for their tribe. When I asked who, they couldn't remember the person's name, and of course knew nothing about them. Remember, I ran "nonpartisan," so I wasn't even on the competing team. It's not like I don't have direct experience with this shit.

I listen to you a lot - at least as much as a Women's Studies/Journalism major at Slate - and think you are 100% right that people fumble local elections all the time. You're also a candidate I would happily vote for if you lived in my district.

I just think you are out in the weeds on Trump.