You can see from this case that the r0 value in the equation here really is at least 4.0.
You can tell from the Diamond Princess as well. It is spreading fast on that ship.
If this happens, I hope you guys set aside enough supply to hunker down for a while so we can safely shit post at each other.
Where are you right now, @Monte? UK or France? That farm in France might be your best location to hunker down. Your friend will need to start planting in four weeks. Maybe you can offer to help. Having a huge piece of land to walk around would be amazing compared to being locked down in a condo.

I am not sure how much of this raw data released by PRC is accurate or even trustworthy, but it’s looking like the mortality rate could be much, much lower because the infection rate is much, much higher, with most people not really that sick. If you get the complications, however, it looks like 20%. But there is no way to know unless more non-Chinese get infected and the West gets enough reliable data.