2020 election

[C-Mag]

[Fife]

[C-Mag]

[C-Mag]

Dem leader Biden got 85 people to show up in Iowa. Trump plays to 100,000, with 40 hour wait time in line.

Clearly the polls are accurate

[StCapps]

Dem leader Biden got 85 people to show up in Iowa. Trump plays to 100,000, with 40 hour wait time in line.

Clearly the polls are accurate

The only thing the Dem candidate vs.Trump polls show at this time is who is the most likely to beat Trump of the candidates available. Obviously this far out before the primary each candidate is going to an inflated chance of winning before the primary even really starts, that is to be expected. Those polls will not accurately show Trump's support, but they are okay at comparing the Dems to each other.

[pineapplemike]

LATEST: 2020 general election head-to-heads via Fox News poll:
Biden 49%, Trump 39%
Sanders 49%, Trump 40%
Harris 42%, Trump 41%
Warren 43%, Trump 41%
Buttigieg 41%, Trump 40%

[StCapps]

LATEST: 2020 general election head-to-heads via Fox News poll:
Biden 49%, Trump 39%
Sanders 49%, Trump 40%
Harris 42%, Trump 41%
Warren 43%, Trump 41%
Buttigieg 41%, Trump 40%

Biden and Sanders will do better against Trump than Harris, Warren and Buttigieg, that's the only takeaway from such polls at this point. Biden and Sanders would have to have bigger leads over Trump in head-to-head polls at this point for me to think they have a real shot, their numbers are going to go down as the primary progresses and once someone wins the nomination, then their numbers will go down even more.

[Ex-California]

Remember what the polls said in 2016?

[Speaker to Animals]

[StCapps]

Remember what the polls said in 2016?

From Qunnipiac in late April 2015:

In a general election matchup, Clinton gets 45 percent of American voters to 43 percent for Rubio. She leads other top Republicans:
45 - 40 percent over Christie;
46 - 42 percent over Paul;
47 - 42 percent over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee;
46 - 39 percent over Bush;
46 - 41 percent over Walker;
48 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

Similar results skewed in the favor of the Democrat before Trump was even in the race. Factor in the anti-Trump bias that was around 3 points off, and you get similar margins of separation between the Democrat and Republican.

The head-to-head polls don't tell you much of anything until both candidates for both parties have been through the nomination process, and even then when Trump is involved, they seem to be off by around 3 points. Also when there is an incumbent POTUS their numbers are less likely to fall in head-to-head polls from now until then, while the candidate running against them is more likely to have their numbers fall as they take arrows over the course of the nomination process as people learn more about them.