2020 election

[StCapps]

They are not fucked. The nomination, first of all, is still wide open. There is no telling where this will lead.

Secondly, the general election is not a done deal either. Trump burned his base in December. The left is energized to replace him while his own supporters are demoralized by his own dipshit decisions.

Trump's base isn't going anywhere..

That's exactly correct. Enough of Trump's base is NOT GOING ANYWHERE on election day.

Trump barely fucking won that election. In some of those rust belt states he won by only a few thousand votes, dude.

Now he's an incumbent though, that makes him far more formidable, especially with the Dems going even further left in 2020 than they did in 2016. Doubling down on derp isn't a winning strategy.

[Speaker to Animals]

Trump's base isn't going anywhere..

That's exactly correct. Enough of Trump's base is NOT GOING ANYWHERE on election day.

Trump barely fucking won that election. In some of those rust belt states he won by only a few thousand votes, dude.

Now he's an incumbent though, that makes him far more formidable, especially with the Dems going even further left in 2020 than they did in 2016. Doubling down on derp isn't a winning strategy.

Obama was an incumbent and won 2012 with only 51% of the vote. Florida and Pennsylvania, had Romney taken them, would have turned the election in Romney's favor. That's essentially how Trump won in 2016.

Trump is somewhat unlikely to win Florida in 2020. It is very unlikely he will win Pennsylvania. He won Pennsylvania, not just because of the economic nationalism turning the working class out for him, but because Pennsylvania is an overwhelmingly white state. It's 81% white.

He had the white vote cornered and he fucking lost that completely in December.

He only won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes. I would wager that, unless something changes drastically with Trump's shitty performance between now and general election, more than 44k of his Pennsylvania voters are just going to stay home. In fact, I think a lot of those voters hardly even vote because they considered it fucking hopeless until Trump gave them hope for a time.

Meanwhile, if you think the democrats are not going to mobilize the fuck out of their electorate, you really are fucking kool aide-crazy.

[pineapplemike]

Why You Love Mayor Pete - Opinion
By David Brooks
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/opin ... -2020.html

Why are people so in love with the mayor of South Bend, Ind., who almost nobody had heard of until he did a CNN town hall on March 10?

It’s important to remember that when Democrats vote next year, they’ll not only be choosing a policy alternative to Donald Trump, they’ll also be making a statement about what kind of country they want America to be.

The Trump era has been all about dissolving moral norms and waging vicious attacks. This has been an era of culture war, class warfare and identity politics. It’s been an era in which call-out culture, reality TV melodrama and tribal grandstanding have overshadowed policymaking and the challenges of actually governing.

The Buttigieg surge suggests that there are a lot of Democrats who want to say goodbye to all that. They don’t want to fight fire and divisiveness with more fire and divisiveness. They don’t want to fight white identity politics with another kind of identity politics.
...
First, he is young and represents the rising generation, but he is also an older person’s idea of what a young person should be. He’d be the first millennial president, but Buttigieg doesn’t fit any of the stereotypes that have been affixed to America’s young people.
...
Second, he is gay and personifies the progress made by the L.G.B.T.Q. movement, but he doesn't do so in a way that feels threatening or transgressive to social conservatives. He has conservative family values; it’s just that his spouse is a husband, not a wife.

identity politics

[Smitty-48]

identity politics

So was Nixon v. Humphrey.

Nothing has changed since 1968.

The Great Society v. The Great Silent Majority.

The Hardhats v. The Hippies.

[Smitty-48]

Vietnam broke the country.

Identity politics is still all about Vietnam.

Simple as that.

The same two camps are fighting about it still, they've simply indoctrinated the Millennials to carry it on.

[Smitty-48]

I'm feeling Vietnam nostalgia.

Tiger Stripe Recondo Snake Eaters.

It was mission impossible, but it was still the most bad ass US military ever.

Up until Hamburger Hill that it is.

After Hamburger Hill; that's still what everybody is fighting about now.

[Smitty-48]

Turns out Kennedy and Johnson were actually right about everything.

America surrendering Indochina to the Communists was devastating for America.

Cracked the republic in two and its been at war with itself ever since.

[Martin Hash]

Here’s the Hash narrative:

“The Virtual Civil War began on December 21, 1991, the day the Soviet Union collapsed, because after that nobody was pushing back against the Marxists.” - me

[Smitty-48]

Here’s the Hash narrative:

“The Virtual Civil War began on December 21, 1991, the day the Soviet Union collapsed, because after that nobody was pushing back against the Marxists.” - me

The Cold War truce had already collapsed at Hill 937 in the A Shau Valley.

The New Dealers and the Reagan Democrats were already and still at war about Vietnam in 1991

The collapse of the Soviet Union resulted in a series of Vietnam proxy wars to try to exorcise the Vietnam demon, but it backfired and simply retrenched the Vietnam demon for decades to come.

[Martin Hash]

It’s not Republicans vs. JFK Democrats anymore, it’s liberty vs. Marxism