President Holds Assad and Russia Responsible

[kybkh]

Official statement from Fat Sara. Missiles incoming.

[Arc Light]

Looks as if Ivan is sallying forth.

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-n ... uff-2018-4

I've heard the Brits are sending their subs. Not sure how many they have that are deployable.

[kybkh]

Is this conversation being had somewhere else? Aren’t we a tad surprised that even after RU says it will attack launch sites, Drumpf is actually gonna do it?

[Smitty-48]

Doesn't seem to be much activity in the Barents nor the Bering, so the Russians don't seem to be gearing up for war. There is an exercise going on in the Barents, including a ballistic missile submarine, but it's five ships total, two surface, three subs, can hardly call that a surge to readiness of any significance.

Bottom line, you'll know if/when they are serious, because there will be so much naval activity, they won't be able to hide it from OSINT. If the Russians really believed that a war was plausibly imminent, they would be putting a heck of a lot more than couple ships here and there to sea, they'd be coming out of there like a hornets nest and dispersing.

[Smitty-48]

Russian Western District is conducting a Spetsnaz exercise in the Gulf of Finland, but there's no sign that 1st Guards Tank Army has come out of barracks, so that's not gearing up for war neither, if they thought war was imminent, 1st Guards Tank would be on the move, probably into staging areas in Belarus.

[Smitty-48]

Pretty quiet on the OSINT front actually, just seems like Trump related media hype, whatever the Russians are saying about what they're going to do about it in Syria, there's no major military moves backing that up, if there was, it would be too big to conceal from the internet.

If there's media saying the Russians are doing this and the Russians are doing that, but they don't have any numbers, formations, or locations, that's just media fapping, if they can tell you how many, which units, and where, then that's more credible.

Like the Russian naval flotilla at Tartus which is putting to sea right now? That's one frigate, two diesel subs, two cargo ships, two landing ships, and two patrol boats, that ain't much of a battle fleet, if they were going to do something which they thought could escalate on them, they'd be putting a heck of a lot more than that to sea.

Seems more like they're just moving them out of the way so they don't get hit with anything launched at the Syrians.

[Arc Light]

Thanks for the perspective, Smitty. Looks like I let myself get ahead of the story.

[kybkh]

Pretty quiet on the OSINT front actually, just seems like Trump related media hype, whatever the Russians are saying about what they're going to do about it in Syria, there's no major military moves backing that up, if there was, it would be too big to conceal from the internet.

If there's media saying the Russians are doing this and the Russians are doing that, but they don't have any numbers, formations, or locations, that's just media fapping, if they can tell you how many, which units, and where, then that's more credible.

Like the Russian naval flotilla at Tartus which is putting to sea right now? That's one frigate, two diesel subs, two cargo ships, two landing ships, and two patrol boats, that ain't much of a battle fleet, if they were going to do something which they thought could escalate on them, they'd be putting a heck of a lot more than that to sea.

Seems more like they're just moving them out of the way so they don't get hit with anything launched at the Syrians.

Last time Obama was making these overtures there was way more hardware floating in the area.

What do you make of China chirping up an saying they got Russia's back, full stop?

Sometimes I really believe that the whole Russiagate was a IC ploy to pull the ultimate good cop bad cop routine on Putin with Trump's consent.

Trump being Mongo, the IC being the cucks behind the piano trying to get at Russia.

[Smitty-48]

Well, speaking of China, that's actually where the much bigger naval confrontation is going down, off Hainan Island, the PLAN is conducting a big exercise with their carrier group, and the USS Roosevelt strike group sailed through, that's the biggest concentration of naval power at sea right now.

[Smitty-48]

Thanks for the perspective, Smitty. Looks like I let myself get ahead of the story.

Not saying it couldn't happen, I leave room for misapprehension, miscalculation and/or mistake, as always, but there's no tell tale signs that either the Russians or NATO are gearing up for something big.