Meanwhile in Iraq & Syria

[Speaker to Animals]

The people who really pushed Trump across the finish line, mainly the white working class in the rust belt, voted for what Steve Bannon represents. But Trump is siding with the globalists. Trump terribly misjudges who actually put him there and who can vote him out (or help get him out by not voting).

Trump wants this detente between the globalists and nationalists, but that's not possible. It's one or the other. These two governing philosophies are mutually incompatible. I understand why he puts trust in family first, but that's a mistake in this case.

[heydaralon]

There is an institutionalized thinking in our politicians, advisers, and military, that veers toward intervening in questionable conflicts.

I agree with Bacevich when he calls this "Blaming Leviathan", because America's imperial hubris and associated Empire of Liberty does not actually come from on high, it's deeply ingrained in the culture, since the Revolution in fact, "NeoCons" is a cop out, the "NeoCons" didn't invent this shit, America has been intervening in the Middle East, since the Barbary Pirates had to be Regime Changed, who knew?

How much more involved do you think the United States will get?

It's not going to be Vietnam if that's what you're thinking, at the same time, you'll be nibbling around the margins, firing a few TLAM's from time to time, Special Forces Foreign Internal Defense operations, that sort of thing, but I'm not sensing any appetite for full on internvention, it's going to take a full generation or two to get over the Iraq War hump, you will go big with boots on the ground again someday, but it's still gonna be awhile methinks, at this juncture, even your Imperial Hubris as been sufficiently chastened as to keep you on the periphery, sort of sailing around offshore in the aircraft carriers, loathe to get off the boat in fear of another "quagmire".

That will wear off though, always does, but right now you're still spooked enough to remain somewhat circumspect about it as an electorate, both Red Team and Blue Team, so there's no mandate to go big from either camp.

Vietnam started out with like 1500 advisors on the ground. I think Carter got the ball rolling on Afghanistan by arming a few hundred of the mujaheddin. I hope you are right. These things do tend to snowball though.

[Smitty-48]

If you're worried about where America's next Vietnam will be coming from, I wouldn't tunnel vision on the Levant, the Levant is kind of "been there, done that, got burned", and so they're unlikely to try to go that route again, I'd say Africa and Central America are the more likely candidates for creeping intervention, it's never the place you are focussing on in real time, in the fifties, Indochina was creeping towards you via "ZOMG Laos!", but at the time it was considered a "French Problem" (even though America was funding the entire war), but while this was all starting to creep, you were actually tunnel visioned on Korea, so it's usually not the place you are worrying about in the now, where you are actually going to be quagmiring in the future.

[Speaker to Animals]

Next Vietnam might be Mexico.

[kybkh]

The media response to this strike can not be forgotten. Their stripes are laid bare for all to see. Left, Right, Independent no one can deny the absurd agenda of CNN and MSNBC. Fox is in a weird place right now.

So much can be glean by their glee.

[Smitty-48]

Like, if MC MIC is looking for good prospects for future creeping intervention, I'm actually looking at you African Sahel and Latin American Drug Cartels.

The Levant is kind of "expended downrange" at this point, you have mix this shit up to keep it fresh.

[Speaker to Animals]

Mexico seems most likely to me. Easy to get drawn into that mess, and the escalation would be easier.

[heydaralon]

If you're worried about where America's next Vietnam will be coming from, I wouldn't tunnel vision on the Levant, the Levant is kind of "been there, done that, got burned", and so they're unlikely to try to go that route again, I'd say Africa and Central America are the more likely candidates for creeping intervention, it's never the place you are focussing on in real time, in the fifties, Indochina was creeping towards you via "ZOMG Laos!", but at the time it was considered a "French Problem" (even though America was funding the entire war), but while this was all starting to creep, you were actually tunnel visioned on Korea, so it's usually not the place you are worrying about in the now, where you are actually going to be quagmiring in the future.

We have been massively escalating our presence in Africa. We have a base in Djibouti but there are probably many others I don't know about. I read a Nick Turse book years ago where he talked about a pivot to Africa, but its hard to think of a good place to plant a flag. We are already doing stuff in the horn, but by your been there done that train of thought, we wouldn't mess with Somalians again. Aside from their location and Al Shabaab, there isn't much alluring in that country. Much of West Africa is still France's backyard, and they are weirdly interventionist in some ways. I guess if Africa is where the next shitstorm forms my bet would be Nigeria. A lot of oil, Boko Haram, all the makings of a great movie.

[heydaralon]

Mexico seems most likely to me. Easy to get drawn into that mess, and the escalation would be easier.

Its weird that we haven't already. If you look at the fucking mass beheading videos that the cartels make, it rivals ISIS in brutality. I've seen pictures where Mexican highways are strewn with body parts with signs that say stuff like: To Zetas Greetings from Sinaloa (paraphrasing).

[Smitty-48]

Mexico seems most likely to me. Easy to get drawn into that mess, and the escalation would be easier.

Its weird that we haven't already.

They've got it in their back pockets right now, all in good time, you have to let this shit simmer for awhile, you squeeze one theater until it is completely dry and everyone is totally sick of it, but you have your future theatre of operations lined up in the bullpen, that's where the Latin American Drug Cartels are right now, once everybody is literally puking up desert camo because they are gagging on the ME, that's when you switch it up and go to the Jungle War in Latin America, so long as it is a new theatre of operations with a new camo pattern, everything is fresh and new again.