Let's Riff on the next Tech/Social Revolution

[C-Mag]

The much of the confusion in the stats lies in the difference between the Labor Participation rate, what % of people are working,a dn unemployment, what % of people who want to work are working. This graphic point out the anomaly that when Unemployment is low the LFP should be going up not down. Our dependent population is growing.

Here's something I've been hoping for the last 3 Presidents to fix. Sadly I'm disappointed every time.

Our 'Official' Stats are almost worthless. I think JFK was the first one to start to tinker with the unemployment stats. Every president at least through BHO has modified the way stats are calculated, pushing us farther and farther into fantasy land. The full Labor Participation Rate is the only real stat to use. Subtract it from 100 and you get a better idea of the Unemployment rate than if you go by the Official Unemployment Rate.

[doc_loliday]

People want it to gauge the rate of how many people have good, white collar, well paying, middle class jobs. Unemployment statistics don't reflect that. It shows how many people over 16 who are working or looking for work. Period. It gives you a very fuzzy image of the macro employment situation in the country. It doesn't say anything about the discouraged unemployed, the phantom unemployed, or the underemployed. If you don't expect it to do any of those things, you won't be fooled.

[brewster]

In case anyone had any doubts about the link between SSDI and unemployment.

[Speaker to Animals]

They just wont' even acknowledge it, dude. They know they have no alternative so they just refuse to acknowledge the facts.

Does UBI chafe against our traditional work ethic? Yep. What's the alternative? Are we going to put an increasing percentage of our citizens on disability and welfare? Because that alternative sucks more..

I am all ears in case people want to present different ideas. We still have a pretty long time to work it out. It's not like we need UBI tomorrow. It's a good idea to start discussing it. Adam Smith didn't sit on his ideas for most of his life because the need for a new economic system was too far removed from his current year.

[SuburbanFarmer]

There are a number of "solutions," I suppose. I'll take the Zen approach of doing nothing over a UBI any old day, just because UBI is easy for me to scrap.

First, what is the legal authority for UBI? Seems like a simply academic discussion unless there is some IRL legitimate way to implement such a program.

Second, the Luddite reflexive position regarding automation is contrary to history and observable human behavior. Automation creates more products, not more leisure time. As much as starry-eyed dreamers have loved to wax poetic about grown ups sitting around singing folk songs all day for centuries, it turns out people would rather have pick-up trucks, cheeseburgers, clean drinking water, computers, iPhones, and medication.

Third, is working a moral burden? (what's wrong with requiring people to work for their supper rather than raiding your fridge?) And is an unconditional income something that able-bodied people morally deserve?

I think the threat of moral injury is the greatest risk. Economically, I don't know that much would change, at the bottom line. But I don't see taking Generation Z and turning it into a nation of video gamers 24/7 is doing them much of a favor. (Also, want to see what REAL income inequality looks like? Just wait until there is a default UBI.)

H/T, I missed that discussion. I see two main things we need to do to improve the situation.

I think the answers start need to start at home. Parents need to instill a work ethic and a drive to work in their children. Gen-X and the Boomers did a pretty shitty job of this and it's biting us in the ass.

Second, we have to change the discussion on how this country values skill, knowledge and education. Today, after a 50 year onslaught of valuing only higher education as metric of intelligence and skill is killing us. Victor Davis Hanson and Mike Rowe have been in the lead on this subject. We need to value all workers, and recognize the skill and intelligence required to do trades is often every bit demanding as a Phd -ologist.

Your first point is the same old moral argument nonsense that StA loves to push. We didn't suddenly have a cultural moral breakdown that created our problems. People are responding to incentives, as they always have and should.

You can see this in the article - if it's cheaper to stay home, then they will. This is rational behavior, not slaving 40 hours away from home for no benefit.

I fully agree with your second point though - we have demonized trade work in this country, and it's appalling. You can thank the media for a part in this, and a dogmatic hangover from the Boomers.

[DBTrek]

You still haven't explained how your UBI system handles unchecked population growth, increased immigration, and corporate flight.

Really, I find it sad that this is even an acceptable topic of conversation for grown men in 2017. "Poor me, the future job marketplace is uncertain, the government needs to be my parent now". Not to mention this ludicrous and inflammatory assertion that we have to implement UBI because so many frauds are already fleecing the system. The absolute poverty of thinking on the UBI side of the argument can only be described as staggering.

[doc_loliday]

I don't think anybody denies the link between disability and unemployment. I used to talk about it on the DCF regularly. As for alternatives, alternatives have been proposed. There are jobs available, at every level of ability, they just require people to seek them. So, we should encourage education and training, point out the jobs that are available, while discouraging bad career choices that lead to the situation we have now. Why not put trades back in the schools? Why not point the unemployed to the free courses they can take for trades? Point out that college is free to the poor. Then also discourage them from getting pointless degrees.

[DBTrek]

Not to mention audit and halt the growth of fraudulent disability claims.

When you have a problem you don't triple down on it, you solve it.

[Speaker to Animals]

You still haven't explained how your UBI system handles unchecked population growth, increased immigration, and corporate flight.

Really, I find it sad that this is even an acceptable topic of conversation for grown men in 2017. "Poor me, the future job marketplace is uncertain, the government needs to be my parent now". Not to mention this ludicrous and inflammatory assertion that we have to implement UBI because so many frauds are already fleecing the system. The absolute poverty of thinking on the UBI side of the argument can only be described as staggering.

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Unchecked population growth: DOES NOT EXIST and HAS NOT EXISTED FOR A CENTURY NOW.

Corporate flight: Easy. You abolish all confiscatory taxes and instead levy a flat consumption tax. Corporations no longer have to pay income taxes (which was the main cause of their flight in the first place). Remove the costs of health care and retirement from corporate responsibility as well. We should pay for that collectively through consumption taxes. Meanwhile, we abolish minimum wage laws and allow people to work for however much they can negotiate. They already have a UBI, so there is no need for all that garbage now. No need for unions either. Make everything right to work once we go to a UBI.

As far as the rest of the crap you posted, this isn't about us. We are talking about something to transition into many decades hence. We don't even have a sufficiently advanced economy in the US to transition to a UBI. Look at the math. We are talking about the future, genius.

[brewster]

Unchecked population growth: DOES NOT EXIST and HAS NOT EXISTED FOR A CENTURY NOW.

Dunnos about a century, but certainly not a 1st world problem anymore. Still is in spots around the world.

Corporate flight: Easy. You abolish all confiscatory taxes and instead levy a flat consumption tax. Corporations no longer have to pay income taxes (which was the main cause of their flight in the first place). Remove the costs of health care and retirement from corporate responsibility as well. We should pay for that collectively through consumption taxes. Meanwhile, we abolish minimum wage laws and allow people to work for however much they can negotiate. They already have a UBI, so there is no need for all that garbage now. No need for unions either. Make everything right to work once we go to a UBI.

My problem with VAT is it's regressive, and does nothing about the increasing concentration of wealth since they can't possibly spend what they're taking in. Yes, no need for minimum wage with a UBI.