First of all, we're not neutral. We're in NATO, the general secretary of NATO is a Norwegian former prime minister. We're absolutely in it for the long run.StCapps wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:22 amY'all got the balance wrong Norway.
Russia ain't going to attack Norway because you got American BMD, and pissing the Americans off by not getting American BMD is much more likely to cause Russia to attack. Neutral Norway is a sign of weakness to the Russians, that could actually provoke an attack, siding with the US, not so much. Russia preys on soft targets, they don't attack hard targets, and your strategy is to be a softer target and piss off the ally who is the only one actually deterring the Russians, derp.
And not going too far with NATO is what we did during the Cold War too, with the purpose of not pushing the Soviet Union into a corner where they had to respond in force. The US has done similar things, like abandoning Project Pluto, joining the ABM-treaty and INF-treaty. Because no one wants a nuclear war.
Not being part of the NATO missile defense doesn't make us any more a softer target, as the missile defense can't do shit in Norway anyway. It just means we can spend more on defense that is actually able to resist an invasion, rather than relying on NATO dropping nukes on Russia when the Russians try to exploit grey areas.
There's a history of Russian neighbors who can't manage this balance; Georgia and Ukraine. When Georgia went too far with NATO cooperation, Russia invaded, knowing NATO wouldn't go to open war with Russia. Same with Ukraine. Neighboring countries to Russia can absolutely align themselves with NATO, or be part of NATO, like Norway. But they have to be extremely careful while doing so, and threatening Russian strategic deterrence will force their hand to react accordingly. And Russia will respond in a way where NATO have a way out of going to total nuclear war.
Norway joining the ballistic missile shield could lead to Russian annexation of Svalbard. They're already there, and it would be easy for them to send little green men and take it all over, hoping the US wouldn't respond. Or they could've ramped up sabotage of Norwegian infrastructure, while maintaining deniability. There's nothing stopping them from destroying most of Norwegian energy production, without actually sending troops in. And NATO is not going to war with Russia over some hydroplants falling apart for some mysterious reason.
The American high command is actually not that pissed off, for another reason; the NATO missile defense is purely political. It actually can't defend the US against a large scale exchange of nuclear weapons. The ones truly pissed off are Raytheon and Boeing, as they're the ones making money on a flawed concept. The US still have access to Norwegian airbases, intelligence services, and radars for observing Russian missile tests. These aspects are far more important than the useless umbrella that is only good for making the public THINK they're safe from nuclear weapons.