Norway says no to NATO missile shield

[Smitty-48]

United States Marines.

Boots on the ground.

In Norway.

In May. 2019.

[Smitty-48]

And it's like, Norway is one of the countries in Europe which really does need America.

The Russians are not going to fuck with France, they're not going to fuck with Italy.

Norway however, is a country they could fuck with, and would fuck with, if America wasn't standing guard.

[TheReal_ND]

I mean you are either in or you aren't. Politics are fake and gay. You can try to one up the big dog by being a passive aggressive bitch if you want but a healthy empire would not put up with that. But this isn't a healthy empire. We aren't a healthy people. New times are coming and I want the people responsible for poisoning the well to pay before it's all over.

[Smitty-48]

The Russians could literally just show up and park an oil platform on Norway's fields.

What's Norway gonna do? Send their four frigates out to fight the VMF? No.

The Russians could install a Russian friendly government in Norway by hook or by crook.

What's the EU gonna do? Go to war with Russia for Norway? No.

America is the only thing standing between Russia and Norway being Russia's little prison bitch in the cells.

[Smitty-48]

It's not fucking Canada.

The Russians will never march into Ottawa.

Without America however, the Russians could be in Oslo in less than a week.

Doesn't matter how good the Norwegian troops are

The Russians are an artillery army, they'd blast them all to shit.

Norway would be taken down as quickly as the Russians rolled over Georgia

Most of the Norwegian troops wouldn't even get a chance to fight before the Norwegian government capitulated to save the fine china.

[StCapps]

Norway is so dumb. Norway is really dumb, for real.

[Smitty-48]

The biggest threat is hybrid war.

The so called Silk Glove invasion.

The Russians just creep in, slowly but surely.

Undermining the government, pushing the borders back, parking on Norwegian resources and stealing them.

Defying the Norwegians to do something about it.

What would Norway do?

You know it, they'd be in Washington begging for help the moment the Russians started to pick on them.

And being the Russians, they would start picking on Norway the moment it wasn't protected by America.

[Otern]

That said, I think it's fair if Norway wants to cut themselves out to leave them to their own devices.

But that's not what Norway is saying, they're not pulling out of NATO, they're not going it alone, it's just a big fuck you America, while they're still expecting America to send the Marines and secure the seas for them.

Not really. Most norwegians don't want permanent american bases in Norway. A Russian land invasion from the North is not a realistic prospect since the fall of the Soviet Union. Worst case scenario now, is the Russkies going for an amphibious assault near Trondheim, cutting off the North, and doing their best to hold the ground until NATO push them back. And NATO will want to push them back, since a Russian controlled Norway would be way worse for NATO than Norway not joining the fucking useless missile defense program anyway. Even if we weren't part of NATO, NATO would push the Russians back, just as they'd do it for Sweden.

The Nordic countries are pretty much a buffer between NATO and Russia anyway, and it's in both NATO and Russia's interests that neither side controls that buffer too much. It's why Sweden and Finland stay out of NATO, and why Norway have had a pretty restricted policy on what kind of maneuvers and bases to allow in its country.

If a NATO country is invaded, we will send troops, as we've done every time NATO asked for something. But missile shield is just a step too far, for absolutely no benefit to Norway. The American presence in Norway is probably more to the benefit of the US, than it is to Norway nowadays, but at least it has some benefit to Norway.

The real Russian threat to Norway, is Svalbard. But Svalbard is safe as long as we abide by the Svalbard treaty, and don't allow militarization of Svalbard. Russia has no reason to go for Svalbard, as long as it remains demilitarized. And the US and Norway has no reason to militarize Svalbard, as long as there's no reason for Russia to go for Svalbard.

If Svalbard was annexed by Russia, it would be bad for Norway, but even worse for the US and Russia. The US can't allow Russia to get total control over the North pole, and would have to respond. While Russia wouldn't be able to deal with that response with conventional forces.

[Otern]

Norway is currently not really a target. Why would they want to become one?

Canada is fucked because they are in between America and Russia, and America built most of our missile fields fairly close to the Canadian border. There are lots of good reasons for them to want missile defense systems installed.

I don't see why Scandinavia should give a shit unless Russia plans to capture Scandinavia, which seems implausible with Russia's currently imploding demographics.

Best strategy now is just to let Russia run its course. In fifty years, they won't have the human capital to keep up with us anyway.

There's no point in expansion if you can't get your fucking demographics out of the red.

Glad you understand.

Russian expansion wouldn't be about getting land or economic resources though. So there is a risk for Russian interference in Norway. If Russia were to invade parts of Norway, it would be to secure their strategic deterrence. This was also a very important aspect of why they had to get Crimea in 2014.

So, it's basically in Norway's interests to both be supporting the US, and at the same time not threaten Russian nuclear deterrence so much they'll be forced to reclaim it. Balancing this knife edge is not as simple as many like to say. I think only Turkey is in a more difficult position in NATO, as they have to balance even more knife edges to not get totally fucked by either side.

[StCapps]

Y'all got the balance wrong Norway.

Russia ain't going to attack Norway because you got American BMD, and pissing the Americans off by not getting American BMD is much more likely to cause Russia to attack. Neutral Norway is a sign of weakness to the Russians, that could actually provoke an attack, siding with the US, not so much. Russia preys on soft targets, they don't attack hard targets, and your strategy is to be a softer target and piss off the ally who is the only one actually deterring the Russians, derp.