Meanwhile in Iraq & Syria

[heydaralon]

Here is the pirate video:


I don't know what to make of those pirates' ethnicity, as many of them look like they are from the Indian subcontinent

[Smitty-48]

The Poles have a paramilitary "Home Army" which is now 100,000 strong, it's like the Ukrainian Azov Battalion, except, it's an Azov Corps.

This is not something which the Polish Ministry of Defense has even mandated, this is just Poles forming their own citizens militia, to fight a rear guard action against the Russians if necessary, but make no mistake, by citizens miltia standards, they are well trained and equipped, they are so well trained and equipped, they're starting to make their own government nervous.

[heydaralon]

The Poles have a paramilitary "Home Army" which is now 100,000 strong, that's like the Ukrainian Azov Battalion, except, it's an Azov Corps.

How do you think this Ukraine thing is going to end? Is it going to be like an East Timor situation or am Israel/Palestine situation?

[Smitty-48]

The Poles have a paramilitary "Home Army" which is now 100,000 strong, that's like the Ukrainian Azov Battalion, except, it's an Azov Corps.

How do you think this Ukraine thing is going to end? Is it going to be like an East Timor situation or am Israel/Palestine situation?

In the Donbass? Russian Peace with Honor, they're looking for an exit strategy, but one which doesn't involve being seen to run away. Basically they are holding out for the best deal they can get from Kiev, some sort of autonomous governance in the east, a guarantee not to join NATO, capitulate on the Crimea annexation, that sort of thing.

The Russians went beyond Crimea, in order to seize another bargaining chip, so that Crimea it not on the table in the final negotiation, "we'll pull out of Donbass and stop messing with you, if you cede Crimea as fait accompli"

[heydaralon]

So you think they will get to keep in the long run?

[Smitty-48]

So you think they will get to keep in the long run?

Crimea? Depends really, if it became a big pain in the ass for them, they would probably put it on the table for some sort of quid pro quo, so long as they got to keep their military basing rights.

[Okeefenokee]

Russia isn't giving up the black sea. Not gonna happen.

[Smitty-48]

Russia isn't giving up the black sea. Not gonna happen.

Crimea doesn't necessarily hold the Black Sea for them, if anything, NATO is now expanding into the Black Sea even more, in response to the Russian agression in Crimea. NATO has used it as a rubric, to accelerate NATO expansion into the AO.

Crimea in of itself, doesn't really improve their position, it's not like the Ukrainians actually tried to throw them out of Crimea, nor were they likely to, so the status quo never changed, the Russians have not acquired new bases in the Black Sea, they have the same bases they had before, NATO on the other hand, has moved into the Black Sea in a big way now, so really, in terms of detering NATO, the whole Crimea thing has actually had the opposite effect.

Mind you, I think this is what the Kremlin wanted all along, because their whole raison d'etre, is defending the Rodina from a NATO menace at the gates, if they don't got that, they're whole agenda is a bust, so seizing Crimea was more of a deliberate provocation.

[ssu]

So you think they will get to keep in the long run?

Crimea? Depends really, if it became a big pain in the ass for them, they would probably put it on the table for some sort of quid pro quo, so long as they got to keep their military basing rights.

Crimea cannot ever such a big pain in the ass that they would give it back, Smitty.

Crimea is the best thing ever that Putin has made. No matter what happens, no matter if it gets shown that indeed Putin started the Second Chechen War by blowing up the apartment buildings or how many billions he has stolen for himself, the taking back of Crimea is something that puts him on the side of the good Russian rulers in the eyes of Russians.

The ground of Mother Russia isn't something they will give away for convenience.

[Smitty-48]

So you think they will get to keep in the long run?

Crimea? Depends really, if it became a big pain in the ass for them, they would probably put it on the table for some sort of quid pro quo, so long as they got to keep their military basing rights.

Crimea cannot ever such a big pain in the ass that they would give it back, Smitty.

Nonsense, in case you missed it, the Russians gave all of Eastern Europe back, the idea that there are no circumstances in which the Russians would be forced to hand territory back, is ludicrous, they're the biggest territory handing backers of all time.

Russia is a total basket case, by the time all is said and done, they could be coming back to the Ukrainians on their knees begging for change, the Russian Hegenomy collapses into disorder, at regular intervals.

Your MO of course is to ceaslessly try to spin Putin as being some sort of strategic genius and Russia as this rising powerhouse, when Putin is as about a big a genius as Hugo Chavez was, and Russia is about as stable as Venezuela.

Contrary to your bullshit narrative, Putin taking Crimea was not some bold move planned by brilliant Machiavellian scheming, it was done out of sheer desperation, because the oil price was tanking and with it the Russian economic boom, so Putin reacted in a panic and went into Crimea as a distraction from the fact, that like Venezuela, without $125 a barrel oil, Putin's big plans for Russia, have now all gone down the tubes, thanks to Saudi Arabia, the same folks who brought you Russia's last total collapse, otherwise known as the end of the Cold War.

Russia's prospects go on a cycle with the oil booms and busts, when oil booms to over $100 a barrel, the Russians are making big plans, when oil busts back down to $20 a barrel, whoops, back to being a glorified Third World Country, to wit, Russia; a giant Venezuela, with nukes.