Speaker to Animals wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 12:18 pm
There's nothing like this in history to look at for guidance. This isn't really a proxy war; it's basically right at their doorstep. The Russian elites do not consider Ukraine a separate nation. They don't like having a hostile nation between them and Crimea like that. It's really bad for them.
But with this civil war going on, the Ukrainians were threatening to join NATO to gain leverage. They weren't seriously going to get into NATO, I don't think. Nobody serious can argue that NATO can in anyway defend Ukraine from attack. Putin already proved that when he attacked.
Yet it's dragging on and Putin still has not even secured major objectives anywhere. I don't doubt the Russians can eventually just overpower the Ukrainian regulars and finally capture the entire territory. That's just step one, though. That was supposed to be completed in a few days. Then they proceed to counter-insurgency while they setup their new regime. I would argue that, if they can't even reach Kyiv without getting their asses handed to them like this, then the forthcoming insurgency is going to be absolutely fucking legendary.
Kyiv has the deepest and most complex subway system in the world. That city is fucking massive and it's almost like it was designed for this insurgency. If Putin's propaganda about "Nazi militias" is even half right, then all those Nazi guys are going to link up with the remaining regulars to create an insurgency, and that insurgency is going to be fucking rocket-fueled by the best kit Europeans and Americans can trickle in there over the Polish border.
Meanwhile, you are getting fighters crossing over the Polish border right now. I am old enough to remember the Soviet Union and when those were Bloc countries. I'd imagine there are some older cats and even some dudes my age that still hold a grudge and have not much going on with this pandemic economy. Some of them have military experience. Most of those guys in places like Poland, Ukraine, Hungary, etc., are really hard. You don't fuck with them if you don't have to. They are great people, but realize shit like we are seeing here is very much in their nature. And all those guys are converging on Ukraine right now.
The boogie man came out and the Ukrainians trapped him outside of Kyiv. He's nothing and now the whole global order is in question. Think about the ramifications. The United States has been fighting nonstop for two decades. Is there anybody close to us right now in effectiveness? That could be a problem. That's all the more reason to escalate. China has more reason to escalate too.
And Putin can't leave. Nobody over there seems to want to off him. Even if they did, nobody over here seems to have the courage to be willing to give the Russians *something* so that they can go home. I don't see any good outcome here. Even if this particular conflict ends without further escalation outside the Ukrainian borders, these sanctions will harden the Russian people against the rest of us like never before. They didn't just target the oligarchs. They completely destroyed the Russian people too.
Don't forget the Europeans need Russian natural gas this Winter.
