Meanwhile in Ukraine

[TheOneX]

this war is irrational even by the Kremlin's stated objectives

they wanted to keep Ukraine in their "Sphere of Influence" ?

they have blown that up, Ukraine will never stop fighting until they free of it now

they wanted to defang Ukraine ?

the opposite will occur, Ukraine will become a massively armed anti-Russian fortress now

they wanted to challenge Washington ?

they've made it so Washington will be able to stomp on them from a great height for decades to come

they've just put themselves back into the box they were trapped in as the Soviets

I think it is all about oil and gas. Russia is a lot like Venezuela at this point, an economy and government propped up by black gold. The only way to keep Russia unified and relevant is to keep the black gold flowing, and they see Ukraine as both a potential threat to that and a potential source of more gas and oil.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Narrative failing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DautreuilJoa ... 9541909504

[C-Mag]

Narrative failing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DautreuilJoa ... 9541909504

I Love It

[Smitty-48]

Narrative failing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/DautreuilJoa ... 9541909504

whether he likes it or not, he is in a frozen conflict with Russia

so the war would come to Arkansas by MIRVs in a Missile Crisis gone wrong

[Smitty-48]

I think it is all about oil and gas. Russia is a lot like Venezuela at this point, an economy and government propped up by black gold. The only way to keep Russia unified and relevant is to keep the black gold flowing, and they see Ukraine as both a potential threat to that and a potential source of more gas and oil.

the Russian economy is in free fall, the currency is collapsing back to Soviet era rubles

so they are completely bust and the oil & gas is not going to cover the bill

meanwhile Ukraine is getting billions in aid from around the world

Ukraine could end up in a dominant position over Russia by the end of this

[Smitty-48]

maybe this would have made strategic sense if it had gone the way the Kremlin clearly hoped it would

Crimea all over again, just on a larger scale, they get this done fait accompli

but once Ukraine mobilized to total war for national survival

and Russia switched to being the Soviets waging total war of annihilation

this became a strategic catastrophe for the Russians on a grand scale

not only do I doubt that they can win the war in Ukraine

Russia itself could collapse in the face of this

this makes the Soviet war in Afghanistan look like a cakewalk

and that war brought the Soviet Union to its knees

[Smitty-48]

you have to factor in the density of this objective

Ukraine the size of Texas, with 50% more population

so it's a lot of cities

and cities eat armies

and Kiev is the size of Chicago

Kharkiv is the size of Philadelphia

the Russians don't even have enough troops to take just those two cities

if they have to fight for these cities, that will break the Russians

and bombarding a city beforehand actually makes it easier to defend, harder for the attacker

the Russian war plan just doesn't work, 200,000 troops is nowhere near enough troops to get this done

on this trajectory, the Russians are going to end up in a stalemate at best

and that will be a loss for them, because they will not be in control of the supply lines to Ukraine

and military aid will be flowing to Ukraine, Ukraine will be getting stronger as Russia gets weaker

[TheOneX]

maybe this would have made strategic sense if it had gone the way the Kremlin clearly hoped it would

Crimea all over again, just on a larger scale, they get this done fait accompli

but once Ukraine mobilized to total war for national survival

and Russia switched to being the Soviets waging total war of annihilation

this became a strategic catastrophe for the Russians on a grand scale

not only do I doubt that they can win the war in Ukraine

Russia itself could collapse in the face of this

this makes the Soviet war in Afghanistan look like a cakewalk

and that war brought the Soviet Union to its knees

Yes, that is more or less what I think may have happened. They thought it would be much easier than it turned out to be, but they were committed at that point and couldn't just back out, at least not without great cost to Putin's career and legacy.

Of course this is all speculation, but it is the only scenario that makes sense to me.

[Smitty-48]

maybe this would have made strategic sense if it had gone the way the Kremlin clearly hoped it would

Crimea all over again, just on a larger scale, they get this done fait accompli

but once Ukraine mobilized to total war for national survival

and Russia switched to being the Soviets waging total war of annihilation

this became a strategic catastrophe for the Russians on a grand scale

not only do I doubt that they can win the war in Ukraine

Russia itself could collapse in the face of this

this makes the Soviet war in Afghanistan look like a cakewalk

and that war brought the Soviet Union to its knees

Yes, that is more or less what I think may have happened. They thought it would be much easier than it turned out to be, but they were committed at that point and couldn't just back out, at least not without great cost to Putin's career and legacy.

Of course this is all speculation, but it is the only scenario that makes sense to me.

don't forget, an army is 75% support troops, only 25% infantry

to take all these cities in Ukraine, they need infantrymen

right now, with 200,000 troops total, they have 50,000 infantry at most

that's not even enough to take Kharkiv never mind Kiev

they are trapped in Ukraine now, they don't control any of the territory that they have "taken" so far

the Russians are now outnumbered and surrounded in a hornets nest

hanging on by their finger nails with what air power they can muster

[Smitty-48]

just for comparison

Second Battle of Fallujah ?

that was a division of 13,500 troops to take Fallujah

and those American troops were way better than the Russian conscripts

and those Iraqi forces were poorly equipped Fedayeen

and Fallujah was a city of 200,000

now you're taking about taking Kharkiv, a city of 1.5 million ?

Kiev a city of 3 million ?

against highly motivated NATO armed Ukrainians ?

I don't see how the Russians can do it

the only way is if the Ukrainians surrender

and the Ukrainians are going the opposite of that now, they are fighting to the last man at all objectives

the Russians are looking at one Stalingrad after the next here

I can see them impaling themselves on this now