Meanwhile in Ukraine

[Smitty-48]

this is getting so deep into the weeds

there is no reference point

Turkey blockading the Bosporus

while Russia is backs against a wall in a shooting war for all the marbles ?

uncharted waters

no idea

[Smitty-48]

again tho

five days into this

and it is completely uncharted

that is a de facto indication that the Hegemony itself has collapsed

Hegemony is predictable

when you have no idea what is going to happen ?

there is no Hegemony in effect at that point

[The Conservative]

again tho

five days into this

and it is completely uncharted

that is a de facto indication that the Hegemony itself has collapsed

Hegemony is predictable

when you have no idea what is going to happen ?

there is no Hegemony in effect at that point

Bullshit. Stop being so melodramatic and washy.

You supposedly we're military, use that brain you supposedly have and figure out the next steps.

This isn't rocket science this is the base foundation of man. Taking territory for the needs of another.

Putin is attempting to take Ukraine because it is of strategic import to him, oil transport and food, both something the Ukraine known for.

Putin invaded under the pretense of doing the right thing and instead of stopping where he should have he overplayed his hand and went for the throat. He decided to go for Kiev and take back Ukraine for Russia. they lost it during the Iron Curtain fall, what would happen if he got it back for Russia. Putin would be a hero to the old guard.

Putin thought the Ukranian president was soft, that he wouldn't put up a fight. Except he has, he resent laws under emergency acts and gave civilians weapons.

On top of that Great Britain and other countries since the beginning of the Biden admin have been giving Ukraine weapons for a “just in case measure.”

Because of this, Putin's hope of a few day war has cost him tens of billions, and over-extended fuel chain and more losses than he had hoped.

What are his next steps?

Well he pulled out the nuclear threat card in hope to make the enemy stand down. So far they have called his bluff.

Iran, amazingly decided to get involved and protect the oceans from Russia’s fleet on the water.

So what happens now?

Putin has multiple choices, each are going to cost him hundreds of billions in the long run.

1. Continue the course, bring more troops in, properly strengthen the resource convoys and make Ukraine bleed for every inch of the street they want to keep.

2. Escalate and bring in airplanes to drop bombs, do a WWII tactic, and scorch earth Kiev and the surrounding areas. Drop pamphlets between bombings saying it's useless to resist. Blast speakers say the same thing on tanks as they stroll down the roads. Psychological warfare.

If this doesn't work after a few weeks, go through with your promise, drop a nuke on Chernobyl and say the next will be on Kiev if there is no surrender in 24 hours. If Ukraine doesn't surrender, the bomb is dropped and the world realizes that Russia is now a nuclear-powered version of Nazi Germany... And we are no longer in a cold war.

3. Back down and backing out now will mean he is seen as a weak and incompetent leader, which will mean more problems at home.

[Smitty-48]

Bullshit. Stop being so melodramatic and washy.

You supposedly we're military,

lol

you are the guy who claimed you were selected as a sniper right out of basic training

so pardon me while I don't put any stock in your military bona fides /shrugs

[Smitty-48]

in actual fact, it's not even a military issue

the Pax Americana was not a military Hegemony

the Soviets were the military Hegemon, a giant army fueled by oil and not much else

hence why the couldn't break out of George Kennan's Containment

the American Hegemony, the Pax Americana, was a financial Hegemony

King Dollar ruled the waves

so the collapse of the American Hegemony is all about debt

the lender of last resort nation is the Global Hegemon,

a debtor nation, like Britain before America, cannot sustain Hegemony

[Smitty-48]

this is not to say that China, nor the EU, nor anybody else is the Global Hegemon neither

because everybody is deep in debt, including China now

so there is no lender of last resort nation

there is no Hegemon

that is how this is like 1939

in the Depression, there was no Hegemon then neither, after Wall Street collapsed

[Smitty-48]

don't forget

the Washington Treaty doesn't actually stipulate that a NATO member has to contribute anything specific

even if Article V is invoked, it doesn't stipulate what any member has to contribute

so like America is the only country to ever Invoke Article V, for Afghanistan

what did NATO actually provide ?

not that much

so just invoking Article V has already been proven to be underwhelming in terms of effects

the public is vastly overrating Article V as being something that is actually preventing anything

[Martin Hash]

Are you talking about the Washington Consensus?

[Smitty-48]

back in 1939, Britain & France were the NATO of the day

the Entente Cordiale

so first they couldn't contain Hitler without invoking Entente Article V

then when Hitler invaded Poland on 1 September 1939

Britain & France invoked Entente Article V

and nothing happened

it was a big nothing burger

I would expect the same thing now, if anybody in NATO tries to invoke it

[Smitty-48]

Are you talking about the Washington Consensus?

no

the actual North Atlantic Treaty is called the Washington Treaty

NATO Article V is the fifth article of the Washington Treaty