Supply Chain Shortages and Inflation

[The Conservative]

Report: FROM INSTAPUNDIT READER, FARMER, AND AGRONOMIST BART HALL: “PSA for anyone who eats in the US or Canada. This year’s wheat harvest is shaping up as dreadful. Durum, used for pasta and bread flour, looks to be the worst in at least 60 years. Soft White Winter wheat, used for pastry flour, and Hard Red Winter [all-purpose] are facing the worst harvests since the 1988 drought. This is a good time to stock up and hoard, since the news is not widely known. Pasta keeps just about forever and a doubling in price is not inconceivable. Same with assorted flours if you bake at home, except flours should be stored in a freezer to prevent damage from Indian Meal Moth and other bugs. Bread also freezes quite well, and will do just fine for at least a year, probably two. Canola oil is also likely to see a price jump, as the crops across Alberta and Saskatchewan have also been clobbered. It also keeps well for years.”

I buy bulk flour, I get 125 lbs of flour twice a year.

50 lbs of Bread flour.
50 lbs of Gen Purpose Flour
25 lbs of Semolina Flour

My wife a huge baker, and I make pasta. So for me, I'll just buy bulk like I do every six to eight months and smile as I watch everyone else panic...

[C-Mag]

The problem I have with this is even if it was a bad year, there is still likely to be plenty for everyone if people just cut back slightly, maybe use corn or rice instead, on how much they consume, but only if people do not panic buy it all first. Like last year, the biggest reason there was a shortage in toilet paper wasn't that there was too little toilet paper, it was people panic buying all of the toilet paper. If people just bought toilet paper at the normal rate there never would have been any issue.

There will be panic buying, there will be hoarding, it's human nature, you see it every hurricane or winter storm that hits. While the cost of food in the US has been extremely cheap, and in historical terms is, food is going up across the board. For middle class people and above, it will only be annoyance, that's not what matters. What matters is how it affects the poor, not just here, but globally. And it will. The Arab Spring was initiated by higher food costs, and we aint seen nothing yet.

[C-Mag]

1972 MIT prediction of the collapse of society is on track to happen by 2040
Economic growth will halt in a decade, food will become scarce and human population will decline

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... veals.html

By their model we are at peak food production right now, it's all down hill from here. This is a Bronze Age Collapse prediction.

[TheOneX]

1972 MIT prediction of the collapse of society is on track to happen by 2040
Economic growth will halt in a decade, food will become scarce and human population will decline

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... veals.html

By their model we are at peak food production right now, it's all down hill from here. This is a Bronze Age Collapse prediction.

Unless there is drastic climate change in a short period of time, the amount of food we can produce is not going anywhere.

[The Conservative]

1972 MIT prediction of the collapse of society is on track to happen by 2040
Economic growth will halt in a decade, food will become scarce and human population will decline

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... veals.html

By their model we are at peak food production right now, it's all down hill from here. This is a Bronze Age Collapse prediction.

Unless there is drastic climate change in a short period of time, the amount of food we can produce is not going anywhere.

The US food production isn't the issue I think, it's the stuff we can't get/grow here for whatever reason. We have in so many ways outsourced our food production as well.

[C-Mag]

The biggest problem I see in food production is we've built a very fragile system that relies on long supply lines, and a massive communication network. In South Africa, we are about to see what happens when that system is suddenly destroyed over the course of 72 hours.

Like South Africa, we are dominated by a population who doesn't know how to do anything real. Skills matter.

[TheOneX]

1972 MIT prediction of the collapse of society is on track to happen by 2040
Economic growth will halt in a decade, food will become scarce and human population will decline

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech ... veals.html

By their model we are at peak food production right now, it's all down hill from here. This is a Bronze Age Collapse prediction.

Unless there is drastic climate change in a short period of time, the amount of food we can produce is not going anywhere.

The US food production isn't the issue I think, it's the stuff we can't get/grow here for whatever reason. We have in so many ways outsourced our food production as well.

So no more bananas and mangos, not a big deal.

[The Conservative]

Unless there is drastic climate change in a short period of time, the amount of food we can produce is not going anywhere.

The US food production isn't the issue I think, it's the stuff we can't get/grow here for whatever reason. We have in so many ways outsourced our food production as well.

So no more bananas and mangos, not a big deal.

A lot of middle eastern spices, Asian herbs,etc... I would love to say the US would be all set, but honestly, unless the US diversifies it's growing profile, we will lose a lot of things we see year round.

[C-Mag]

A lot of middle eastern spices, Asian herbs,etc... I would love to say the US would be all set, but honestly, unless the US diversifies it's growing profile, we will lose a lot of things we see year round.

That's actually normal, and we need to embrace it. One thing Americans need a bunch of is doing without.

When I was a kid in the 70s, you couldn't get fruit year round. It was kind of a big deal when you got the first oranges of the season finally shipped to your backwater town.

[TheOneX]

The US food production isn't the issue I think, it's the stuff we can't get/grow here for whatever reason. We have in so many ways outsourced our food production as well.

So no more bananas and mangos, not a big deal.

A lot of middle eastern spices, Asian herbs,etc... I would love to say the US would be all set, but honestly, unless the US diversifies it's growing profile, we will lose a lot of things we see year round.

Those are all luxury items. We have plenty of corn, wheat, beans, beef, chicken, and pork. As long as we have all of that we will be good, just might have a bit less variety.