Irreducible Complexity

[Martin Hash]

Evolution has become a religion ensconced in the trappings of science. Even though there are glaring inconsistencies, it’s adherents vociferously defend every hill and dismiss anyone who dares question the orthodoxy as a heretic. One need not be a theist to reject some of the tenets of evolution, but those who believe in God did provide the concept of Irreducible Complexity that pushes back against the established narrative taught uncritically in public schools.

Irreducible Complexity is the idea that some things in nature are too complex to have evolved because no less complex system would function. It’s not a new concept: the Watchmakers allegory was used for centuries to prove God’s existence, citing the eye as an example of Irreducible Complexity; with modern cites of the Bombardier beetle’s defense mechanism, cilium motion, flagella, the immune system, and blood-clotting cascade. Unfortunately this strategy to disembowel evolution has been undermined by lack of mathematical certainty. Proponents claim computer simulations show that evolution is possible no matter how complex, then they cross their arms and consider the issue closed. However, that same smug computer simulation example is easily turned against them: due to the von Neumann architecture inherent in ribosomes, the cell’s protein manufacturing organelle, it can be easily calculated that the odds of hemoglobin existing, though theoretically possible, is more than 20 to the 146th power, meaning the odds against it evolving is equal to the number of atoms in the universe: essentially a kill-shot on evolution.

[Fife]

20^146 is a truly impressive number, in expressing the odds against something existing that is known to be extant and ubiquitous in vertebrates. I'm honestly curious how that number is calculated. I tried google but I am probably not asking the question correctly.

IIRC, the number of atoms in the known universe is estimated to be in the neighborhood of 10^80. For the peanut gallery, that's a shitload of atoms, a 10 followed by 80 zeros many.

Now, 2 x 10^146 is 2 x 10^66 more than that. I think.

IOW, if you could make an identical copy of our known universe, you would have to do that 2 x 10^66 times.

That's a 10 with 66 trailing zeros. One would have to copy our universe all over that many times, twice. All the atoms in all of those universes added together would give 20^146.

If I can find support for that number vis-a-vis hemoglobin existing in an evolutionary system, that would indeed set evolution back a step or two.

[Martin Hash]

The ribosome operates like a traditional computer with CPU, ROM, RAM, and IO. RNA, the equivalent of a program, encodes an Octal instruction set that selects 1 of 20 amino acids to go out in a linear chain, called a protein. The hemoglobin protein's physical shape determines how it captures oxygen molecules and how and where it releases them in the bloodstream. There is only 1 configuration that works, so the protein has to have its amino acids in the exact order to fold properly. Hemoglobin uses 2 chains of proteins of 141 & 146 amino acids: that's way over the number of atoms in the universe. There are some degenerative hemoglobin proteins, like the disease Thalassemia, but they can't capture oxygen even though the amino acid chains are just as long.

[Fife]

Scientific notation correction: I believe 20^146 is 2.0 x 10^147, not 2 x 10^146. That is illustrative of how really large apparently small adjustments are when dealing with exponents. The difference in those two numbers is a 10 followed by 147 zeros.

A Googolplex is essentially incompressible, as its 10^Googol, or 1 followed by 10^100 zeros. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Googolplex

Even more mindblowing is that, as finite integers go, it's amazingly a pretty small number in the scheme of things.

[Fife]

The ribosome operates like a traditional computer with CPU, ROM, RAM, and IO. RNA, the equivalent of a program, encodes an Octal instruction set that selects 1 of 20 amino acids to go out in a linear chain, called a protein. The hemoglobin protein's physical shape determines how it captures oxygen molecules and how and where it releases them in the bloodstream. There is only 1 configuration that works, so the protein has to have its amino acids in the exact order to fold properly. Hemoglobin uses 2 chains of proteins of 141 & 146 amino acids: that's way over the number of atoms in the universe. There are some degenerative hemoglobin proteins, like the disease Thalassemia, but they can't capture oxygen even though the amino acid chains are just as long.

Roger that. No matter what, it's an astounding number and hemoglobin is an astounding structure.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Should we assume that fewer than 10^80 invertebrates existed throughout the 300m years leading up to vertebrate life, and that there could never have been an invertebrate with hemoglobin, and that no vertebrate could have existed without it?

When dealing with big numbers, it’s best to remember that there are always bigger numbers out there. And not all other possibilities have to be eliminated before the solution arises.

[Martin Hash]

The number of mammals that ever existed is 10^20.
The number of bacteria that have ever existed is 10^50.

[SuburbanFarmer]

The number of mammals that ever existed is 10^20.
The number of bacteria that have ever existed is 10^50.

Could be low, given periods of explosive change like the Cambrian. I’m curious how that number could even be calculated.

[Martin Hash]

R U trying to make the argument that there’s a scenario that gets up to 20^146?

[Martin Hash]

The design & operation of DNA makes total sense to me as an engineer & computer scientist, but it makes no sense to a gambler.