Poking the Bear Again

[Smitty-48]

That tracks.

But.... I think the Crimea is the U.S.S.R.'s Florida.

It is Russia's Cuba - it ain't actually Russian.

We might still have the resolve to get them to back down there. HARD Maybe.

Crimea is back to being Russia now, they have fully annexed it in every way

Ukraine is never getting it back, because Ukraine would be totally destroyed in any attempt to do so

Russian Cuba is actually Romania, directly across the water, that's where Obama put the missiles

[Smitty-48]

see the thing is, Aegis Ashore is a direct port of the shipborne system onto land

the system is the Lockheed Martin Mk.41 VLS

it can launch ABMs, but it can also launch offensive cruise missiles

cruise missiles at sea did not violate INF 87'

cruise missiles on land was a blatant violation of the treaty which set this whole confrontation into motion

what Obama did is the same thing Khrushchev did in Cuba for all intents & purposes

[Smitty-48]

bear in mind how difficult it is to detect & track cruise missiles

it's not like an ICBM where the Russians would have early warning

the cruise missiles could hit Moscow from Romania and the Russians wouldn't see them coming

so Aegis Ashore is a de facto nuclear first strike enabled weapon

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

That tracks.

But.... I think the Crimea is the U.S.S.R.'s Florida.

It is Russia's Cuba - it ain't actually Russian.

We might still have the resolve to get them to back down there. HARD Maybe.

Crimea is back to being Russia now, they have fully annexed it in every way

Ukraine is never getting it back, because Ukraine would be totally destroyed in any attempt to do so

Russian Cuba is actually Romania, directly across the water, that's where Obama put the missiles

True enough.

I guess Crimea ain't quite Cuba, but it ain't quite Florida.... don't know exactly what it is, but I know I'd like a strong NATO that believes in US resolve either way.

[Smitty-48]

That tracks.

But.... I think the Crimea is the U.S.S.R.'s Florida.

It is Russia's Cuba - it ain't actually Russian.

We might still have the resolve to get them to back down there. HARD Maybe.

Crimea is back to being Russia now, they have fully annexed it in every way

Ukraine is never getting it back, because Ukraine would be totally destroyed in any attempt to do so

Russian Cuba is actually Romania, directly across the water, that's where Obama put the missiles

True enough.

I guess Crimea ain't quite Cuba, but it ain't quite Florida.... don't know exactly what it is, but I know I'd like a strong NATO that believes in US resolve either way.

Crimea is Russian territory once again, both de jure & de facto, an attack on Crimea is an attack on Russia

it's the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet, same as Norfolk is HQ for the 2nd US Fleet

even before they annexed it 2014 they would have gone to war for it

at this point it is a fortress with tactical nuclear weapons backing up 28,000 ground troops

[Smitty-48]

estimates are that the Russians are moving 70,000 troops to Krasnodar & Crimea right now

that's 20% of the entire Russian military

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

"Russian territory" is more vague than it seems.

I mean, Crimea is obviously more under Russian control now than it was in 2013.... but it isn't exactly part of *capital R* Russia.

They kind of 'went to war' for it.... but they didn't go hot nuclear war for it, and I don't know if they would have.

I don't know. Do you think we should have done less than send a couple of Destroyers to the Black Sea, or more? Assuming projecting force is ideal, but nuclear war ain't.

[Smitty-48]

"Russian territory" is more vague than it seems.

I mean, Crimea is obviously more under Russian control now than it was in 2013.... but it isn't exactly part of *capital R* Russia.

They kind of 'went to war' for it.... but they didn't go hot nuclear war for it, and I don't know if they would have.

I don't know. Do you think we should have done less than send a couple of Destroyers to the Black Sea, or more? Assuming projecting force is ideal, but nuclear war ain't.

Crimea is part of Russia with a capital R now

they have totally deposed the Ukrainians, Crimea is officially a Russian Oblast with a Russian government

they have more military forces in Crimea than in any other region of Russia per capita

they have imported Russians into Crimea, they are moving people in

they are building a new link across the Kerch strait severing it totally from Ukraine

they are spending billions in Crimea making it Russian again

in terms of nuclear war ?

as I always say, that would come by way of miscalculation, misapprehension and/or mistake

in terms of what I think America should do, America should stop engaging in half measures

either back down, or go all the way, no ambiguity

if we are to be in this confrontation with Russia, then resolve is paramount

half measures is the thing which will cause the miscalculation, misapprehension and/or mistakes

I don't think America needs to defend Ukraine

but once committed to doing so, then it needs to be peace through strength, full court press

don't get caught in no man's land between, that's how Cuban Missile Crisis' happen

the Cuban Missile Crisis was caused by ambiguity, grey area miscalculation

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Without doing any real research, I'd say we had more official troops in, say, South Korea than any Koreans' had.... and imposed a model of our government - but it was never US 'territory' in a capital U, U.S.A. nation-state sense. That aside -

I'm comfortable with more rather than less. I think we do need to defend the Ukraine - part of the alliance deal. But short of nuclear war, I don't really have skin in the game, so I'll personally hold on more saber rattling.

[Smitty-48]

Without doing any real research, I'd say we had more official troops in, say, South Korea than any Koreans' had.... and imposed a model of our government - but it was never US 'territory' in a capital U, U.S.A. nation-state sense. That aside -

I'm comfortable with more rather than less. I think we do need to defend the Ukraine - part of the alliance deal. But short of nuclear war, I don't really have skin in the game, so I'll personally hold on more saber rattling.

Crimea was part of the Russian Empire, then the Soviet Union, it's far more Russian than Hawaii is American

Crimea is majority Russian population and always has been, it was Russia when America was still part of England

asserting American forces in Korea as being proxy for Russian forces in Crimea is a deeply mistaken assumption

thinking that Crimea is "not really Russia" is exactly the sort of miscalculation which would start a nuclear war