Poking the Bear Again

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

again, I would characterize this as escalation dominance in action

the Russians are trying to force the Europeans to back down in the Donbass

none the less, this is not for exercise, these forces are on a war footing

and the Biden Administration is engaging in a slow but steady counter escalation, tit for tat

I know a dude that was a kid when the Soviet Union was breaking down in the Ukraine. I'd say we should do everything we can to project the force that we can in that theater.... short of a hot nuclear war.

Problem is - I don't have a good idea of what is possible short of that.

[Smitty-48]

I know a dude that was a kid when the Soviet Union was breaking down in the Ukraine. I'd say we should do everything we can to project the force that we can in that theater.... short of a hot nuclear war.

Problem is - I don't have a good idea of what is possible short of that.

it really comes down to a big game of chicken

both sides engage in brinkmanship on the assumption that the other side will back down

most of the time, somebody backs down

at the same time, this is not exercise, this is head to head loaded for bear

right now, you got France & Germany wanting to back down

then you have the Biden Administration, the British, and Poland, all being much more aggressive

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Why the fuck do France and Germany not have our back?

Pardon my Franch.

[Smitty-48]

again, I would say that Poland intervening in Belarus is the larger issue

that's the thing that scares the Kremlin the most, Velvet Revolutions

the Kremlin has a stronger hand in relation to the Ukrainians, so they are playing to their strengths

the Ukrainians are unlikely to attack, but really the Donbass is just a proxy, the escalation is theatre wide

[Smitty-48]

Why the fuck do France and Germany not have our back?

Pardon my Franch.

France & Germany would go to war if Article V is invoked

in terms of Ukraine they say this is a dangerous game, the Russians aren't bluffing, so it's a very bad idea to escalate

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Why the fuck do France and Germany not have our back?

Pardon my Franch.

France & Germany would go to war if Article V is invoked

in terms of Ukraine they say this is a dangerous game, the Russians aren't bluffing, so it's a very bad idea to escalate

Why do you think the Russians aren't bluffing?

Seems to me that they would back down in the Crimea if they believed we were serious about our.... let's say - pre-Obama dedication to NATO 'red lines.'

[Smitty-48]

I would guess that the French & Germans also probably doubt the competence & resolve of the Biden Administration

I would surmise that they think this Administration could get themselves into trouble here

they're seeing what we're seeing, which is that this Administration is a delusional loose cannon government

[Smitty-48]

Why the fuck do France and Germany not have our back?

Pardon my Franch.

France & Germany would go to war if Article V is invoked

in terms of Ukraine they say this is a dangerous game, the Russians aren't bluffing, so it's a very bad idea to escalate

Why do you think the Russians aren't bluffing?

Seems to me that they would back down in the Crimea if they believed we were serious about our.... let's say - pre-Obama dedication to NATO 'red lines.'

in my opinion, Russians will definitely fight World War Three for Crimea, that's like Russian Florida

but in this case Crimea is not even threatened

they are none the less staged right up to the brink of war with Ukraine in the Donbass

[Smitty-48]

Crimea is the only Russian naval base which is ice free year round

it hard to overstate how strategically vital it is to them

Sevastopol is equivalent to Norfolk Virginia

any direct threat to Crimea will have us at DEFCON 2 pretty fucking quick

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

That tracks.

But.... I think the Crimea is the U.S.S.R.'s Florida.

It is Russia's Cuba - it ain't actually Russian.

We might still have the resolve to get them to back down there. HARD Maybe.