Poking the Bear Again

[SuburbanFarmer]

It sounds like he’s expected to retake Crimea for them from Russia?

maybe even bigger than that,

an Orange Revolution in Belarus against Lukashenka

Turkey attacking the Russians by proxy in the South Caucasus

while the Ukrainians launch an all out offensive on the Donbass

backed by NATO forces in Romania & the Black Sea

...and in the end, a few trillion spent, possible world-ending exchange, and no actual gain of any kind. Brilliant.

[Smitty-48]

It sounds like he’s expected to retake Crimea for them from Russia?

maybe even bigger than that,

an Orange Revolution in Belarus against Lukashenka

Turkey attacking the Russians by proxy in the South Caucasus

while the Ukrainians launch an all out offensive on the Donbass

backed by NATO forces in Romania & the Black Sea

...and in the end, a few trillion spent, possible world-ending exchange, and no actual gain of any kind. Brilliant.

again, the Russia hoax is not rational

Russia being ginned up as if they are the Soviets

"an assault on American democracy itself" existential threat

[SuburbanFarmer]

maybe even bigger than that,

an Orange Revolution in Belarus against Lukashenka

Turkey attacking the Russians by proxy in the South Caucasus

while the Ukrainians launch an all out offensive on the Donbass

backed by NATO forces in Romania & the Black Sea

...and in the end, a few trillion spent, possible world-ending exchange, and no actual gain of any kind. Brilliant.

again, the Russia hoax is not rational

Russia being ginned up as if they are the Soviets

"an assault on American democracy itself" existential threat

This is the result of a few hundred senile boomers clinging to power far too long. Boomers continue their generational campaign to ruin the world.

Most Useless Generation.

[Smitty-48]

...and in the end, a few trillion spent, possible world-ending exchange, and no actual gain of any kind. Brilliant.

again, the Russia hoax is not rational

Russia being ginned up as if they are the Soviets

"an assault on American democracy itself" existential threat

This is the result of a few hundred senile boomers clinging to power far too long. Boomers continue their generational campaign to ruin the world.

Most Useless Generation.

this is the looniest American government I have ever seen

"Trump is an agent of the Kremlin !"

"Worst Insurrection since the Civil War !"

"American democracy itself is in peril !"

this is hotter than the Red Scare, this is nuts

[Smitty-48]

anyways, playing the Russian side

I snap mobilize, shift from Eastern District to Western District, bringing all my formations up to full strength

I invade Belarus with 1st Guards Tank Army from Odintsovo

I encircle the Ukrainians in the Donbass with 20th Guards Motor Rifle Army from Voronezh

I launch out of Transistria into Moldova against NATO in Romania

I then brandish my tactical nuclear weapons to hold the ground

brink of World War Three, buckle up

[Smitty-48]

you can see the traffic jam in the Suez right now

playing the Russian side, I can make that happen on a grand scale

send my SSN's to Panama, Gibraltar, Suez, Hormuz & Malacca

close the choke points with torpedo smart mines

commercial sea traffic grinds to a halt

I meanwhile have my Northern Sea Route open, and I have more oil than Saudi Arabia, so no worries

[Smitty-48]

this where MAD becomes a shield from behind which Ivan can strike with impunity

again, playing the Russian side :

because of MAD, you cannot attack me directly, you cannot retaliate against Russia

meanwhile, I don't have to attack you directly

you are totally reliant on commercial sea traffic, while I am not

so I don't go at you directly, I go at the merchant shipping in the choke points

I don't even acknowledge that it is me doing it, if accused, I publicly claim that is just another Russia hoax

[Smitty-48]

now I might have a problem with Beijing for shutting the SLOC's down

except torpedo smart mines are smart

they are programmed to attack some ships while ignoring others

so I can set my mines to only let Chinese shipping pass, while holding NATO shipping in a traffic jam

[SuburbanFarmer]

now I might have a problem with Beijing for shutting the SLOC's down

except torpedo smart mines are smart

they are programmed to attack some ships while ignoring others

so I can set my mines to only let Chinese shipping pass, while holding NATO shipping in a traffic jam

Not viable unless you’re in a state of war. Cargo ships blowing up means war.

[Smitty-48]

now I might have a problem with Beijing for shutting the SLOC's down

except torpedo smart mines are smart

they are programmed to attack some ships while ignoring others

so I can set my mines to only let Chinese shipping pass, while holding NATO shipping in a traffic jam

Not viable unless you’re in a state of war. Cargo ships blowing up means war.

indeed, but it's a limited war Russia could win

bear in mind what attack submarines do most of the time

they are gathering acoustic intelligence, recording the signatures of specific ships

these are then stored for later use

so it's not an all out attack, it's just certain ships getting sunk here and there

it is also covert & deniable, ships are sinking, but who is sinking them is not clear