Bought my first house

[Smitty-48]

furthermore, massive retaliation is not American doctrine anymore

America has also shifted to a theater counterforce doctrine

so even if America did retaliate, it's not going to be against Moscow, the American response will also be limited in theater

so MAD is neither here nor there, in the Black Sea

[DBTrek]

thing about MAD being in effect over the pole, that actually becomes a shield for theater counterforce options

X nukes in theater does not result in Y massively retaliating, because MAD is precluding massive retaliation

once you inject non deterrent tactical nuclear weapons into the mix, MAD over the pole actually enables that option

you come in under the cover of MAD, using it as an enabler in of itself

Sure, the single use of a tactical nuke my not set off a hailstorm of nuclear retaliation.
...or it might, if you did something really fucked up like use it on the Kremlin or D.C., who knows?

But in your example with using it in the ocean to wipe out a Naval force - yeah ... probably won't lead directly to a larger nuclear retaliation.

It will, however, almost assuredly lead to some kind of retaliation - and not from the target of the attack alone. The rest of the world isn't likely to look favorably or act kindly toward the first nation that decides "a little nukes here and there is ok". The diplomatic and financial repercussions that followed such an act would likely outweigh any immediate benefit gained by using the nuke, don't you think?

[Smitty-48]

in essence, theater thermonuclear counterforce is nuclear proxy war

America & Russia never exchange directly

they simply nuke each others proxies in theater

as neither America nor Russia is assured to be destroyed by that, MAD is not a given

[DBTrek]

in essence, theater thermonuclear counterforce is nuclear proxy war

America & Russia never exchange directly

they simply nuke each others proxies in theater

as neither America nor Russia is assured to be destroyed by that, MAD is not a given

Nash Equilibrium, my dude.
Non-escalating tactical nukes only work if the exchanging parties are confident that it remains in their opponent's interest to avoid escalation. But somewhere along the timeline of this war of theoretical limited nuclear exchange one of the players will be LOSING. How will the other participants remain convinced that the losing player won't step up their nuclear response in an effort to win?

[Smitty-48]

I am not saying interpolar MAD is weak

I'm saying interpolar MAD is so strong, it allows you to fight nuclear wars in theater

you can nuclear war in the Black Sea or China Seas, and strategic MAD will keep that contained in theater

that is what makes it viable, strategic MAD makes tactical counterforce into an option

[Smitty-48]

in essence, theater thermonuclear counterforce is nuclear proxy war

America & Russia never exchange directly

they simply nuke each others proxies in theater

as neither America nor Russia is assured to be destroyed by that, MAD is not a given

Nash Equilibrium, my dude.
Non-escalating tactical nukes only work if the exchanging parties are confident that it remains in their opponent's interest to avoid escalation. But somewhere along the timeline of this war of theoretical limited nuclear exchange one of the players will be LOSING. How will the other participants remain convinced that the losing player won't step up their nuclear response in an effort to win?

both sides know there is no way to win over the pole

you've got SSBN's, they've got SSBN's, going interpolar is suicidal

but losing in theater is not the end of the world, it's like America lost in Vietnam, so what ?

risking a loss in theater does not preclude going to war in the first place

[DBTrek]

I am not saying interpolar MAD is weak

I'm saying interpolar MAD is so strong, it allows you to fight nuclear wars in theater

you can nuclear war in the Black Sea or China Seas, and strategic MAD will keep that contained in theater

that is what makes it viable, strategic MAD makes tactical counterforce into an option

If the warring parties agree to the premise, sure.
Or if you accurately assume that your opponent implicitly understands the scope of your use of force and will only respond in kind.

But if you miscalculate, and your opponent freaks the fuck out and starts launching ICBM's as soon as that first Black Sea mushroom cloud appears - well... then you done fucked up!

[Martin Hash]

Convincing if rational actors were involved; but we're talking about Covidians & Wokers. Putin is the sanest guy in the room.

[Smitty-48]

I am not saying interpolar MAD is weak

I'm saying interpolar MAD is so strong, it allows you to fight nuclear wars in theater

you can nuclear war in the Black Sea or China Seas, and strategic MAD will keep that contained in theater

that is what makes it viable, strategic MAD makes tactical counterforce into an option

If the warring parties agree to the premise, sure.
Or if you accurately assume that your opponent implicitly understands the scope of your use of force and will only respond in kind.

But if you miscalculate, and your opponent freaks the fuck out and starts launching ICBM's as soon as that first Black Sea mushroom cloud appears - well... then you done fucked up!

we live under the specter of miscalculation at all times anyways

we are at 15 minutes notice to launch on warning, they are at 15 minutes notice launch on warning

there is nothing saying you can't have a miscalculation without a theater war in progress

so both sides are aware of the miscalculation paradigm, it's not preventing them from preparing to fight and win theater wars

[DBTrek]

Convincing if rational actors were involved; but we're talking about Covidians & Wokers. Putin is the sanest guy in the room.

Reminds me of my foray into Austrian economics. Makes perfect sense when market participants are informed of how economic systems work, and are acting in their rational best interests. Add a couple million economically illiterate Americans to the markets, buying, selling, and chasing stocks in seemingly random and unpredictable patterns - and suddenly shit stops making sense. It's not that the economic models or theories are wrong. It's the fact you have a bunch of economic illiterates throwing tons of chaos and noise into the system, and the models can't account for their action.