Monte Hall Hoax

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Fife
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Fife » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:37 pm

The "always switch" strategy obtains in all games of n doors where n>2. All of them. Even a jilliony-jillion-googol doors.

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:40 pm

Fife wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:21 pm
The doors aren't reshuffled before the player makes his choice to stick or switch. The array is static.

You could come up with a game where the bag is constantly shaken, so to speak. No problema. But that's not the game being discussed.
Damn, dude; you did not waver. Here I was trying to prove there’s a god, which you believe, and you wouldn’t let me troll it.
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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:43 pm

Fife wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:37 pm
The "always switch" strategy obtains in all games of n doors where n>2. All of them. Even a jilliony-jillion-googol doors.
I am not certain the Monty Hall game counts as a n>2 game when you make your second guess.
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:52 pm

Fife wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:37 pm
The "always switch" strategy obtains in all games of n doors where n>2. All of them. Even a jilliony-jillion-googol doors.
If there was life on the original pick, that would prove there’s a god.
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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:15 pm

Here’s my God Lives logic:
The odds of a human being springing into existence are in the jilliony-jillion-googol range, meaning God did it, but that same kind of number lends itself to evolution theory.

However, as I’ve pointed out before: the odds against hemoglobin is greater than the number of atoms in the universe, which may be a jilliony-jillion-googol?
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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:26 pm

Statistics is a religion. :snooty:

Anyway, I think the solution to the Monty paradox is so fucking stupid that smart people don't think of it.

I choose a door. 1/3 odds.

Monty shows me a goat - my first door is still 1/3, but the new door is 2/3 chance of car.

Extend that reasoning - Monty opens another door. Maybe it is a goat, maybe it is a car - but either way I am absolutely, 100% certain what is behind the door I initially chose, not 33% certain.
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:27 pm

That was the most satisfying MM in years.

I was hoping this one or the “General Theory” one would catch. I even tweeked the General Theory to make it more provocative.
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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:30 pm

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:26 pm
Statistics is a religion. :snooty:

Anyway, I think the solution to the Monty paradox is so fucking stupid that smart people don't think of it.

I choose a door. 1/3 odds.

Monty shows me a goat - my first door is still 1/3, but the new door is 2/3 chance of car.

Extend that reasoning - Monty opens another door. Maybe it is a goat, maybe it is a car - but either way I am absolutely, 100% certain what is behind the door I initially chose, not 33% certain.
That’s good too; sew doubt with irrefutable logic.
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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:33 pm

Bruh, I think you are 100% right on the Monty Hall situation, and, what is more, I think you have the logic, math, and programming chops to prove it.

DB is right, disproving 30 years of Monty Hall bullshit could actually make you famous.
HAIL!

Her needs America so they won't just take his shit away like in some pussy non gun totting countries can happen.
-Hwen

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:35 pm

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:33 pm
Bruh, I think you are 100% right on the Monty Hall situation, and, what is more, I think you have the logic, math, and programming chops to prove it.

DB is right, disproving 30 years of Monty Hall bullshit could actually make you famous.
Proving there is a god would have done it too.
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