2020 General Election Predictions

[Xenophon]

I don't think I have been clear.

This election cycle has been dominated by discussions of how each candidate is doing with their base. I haven't seen a lot of information on how people who aren't dedicated partisans respond to Biden.

Based on that, I don't see why people are convinced he will do poorly in debates.

From what I can tell, lefty circles are very demoralized by Biden. These are people who will still vote for Biden to try and throw out Trump, but they are by no means energized.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I don't think I have been clear.

This election cycle has been dominated by discussions of how each candidate is doing with their base. I haven't seen a lot of information on how people who aren't dedicated partisans respond to Biden.

Based on that, I don't see why people are convinced he will do poorly in debates.

From what I can tell, lefty circles are very demoralized by Biden. These are people who will still vote for Biden to try and throw out Trump, but they are by no means energized.

Very true. But that might be a policy-based and not a gaffe based lack of energy. The left really thought this was their opportunity to have a radical presidential candidate, and Biden ain't that - which is another reason I am curious how centrists will respond to his debating.

[Martin Hash]

It seems unlikely he'll participate in debates. They'll probably pass on to Kamala or just not do them.

And nobody's going to change their mind. The polls are lying sacks of shit, it's a done deal for Trump already: he needs 13% Blacks, he's got as high as 30. He needs 29% of Hispanic vote, he's regularly at 40. If non-college White turnout increases by only 2%, he wins in a landside no matter what.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

If polls are lying sacks of shit, I don't see how you can present those numbers with any certainty.

[C-Mag]

Eric Weinsten betting on Trump


Weinstein, who lives in Portland, says many people he talks to are voting Trump.
Think about who Weinsteins peer group of friends are. He taught at the most liberal college in the US for years.

Oregon is in play.

[Martin Hash]

If polls are lying sacks of shit, I don't see how you can present those numbers with any certainty.

The “needs” is what he got in 2016. I don’t know what the specific minority support is but the “high as” level has a lot of cushion. This is a very systematic way of analyzing the vote.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I really don't know.

I am just toying with the post-2016 theory that partisan certainty that their candidate will win is inversely proportional to that candidates actual chances.

[Martin Hash]

I really don't know.

I am just toying with the post-2016 theory that partisan certainty that their candidate will win is inversely proportional to that candidates actual chances.

I was a Dem, in Portland, and I steadfastly predicted Trump. Lying fucking polls then too.

[GloryofGreece]

End of the Republic 4.0

1.0 = Articles of Confederation

2.0 = Constitution

3.0 = WW1-2

4.0 = 1965

5.0 20211

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I really don't know.

I am just toying with the post-2016 theory that partisan certainty that their candidate will win is inversely proportional to that candidates actual chances.

I was a Dem, in Portland, and I steadfastly predicted Trump. Lying fucking polls then too.

I wouldn't have described you as a Hillary partisan in 2016, so you probably had better insight than other Dems.

I would describe you as a Trump partisan now.