Trump's SCOTUS

[Xenophon]

I probably should have said "savvy."

Rushing to nominate signals that Trump believes he is likely to lose. It isn't an especially good look.

Trump will not wait; he is a businessman. He jumps at opportunities when given to him.

Good. It is his duty, after all, to nominate justices. But, I still think the politically savvy, if very cynical, move is to keep the nomination as a sort of season 1 cliffhanger.

I think the amount of "conservatives" who aren't going to vote for Trump if he doesn't wait to nominate a new justice is minuscule.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Trump will not wait; he is a businessman. He jumps at opportunities when given to him.

Good. It is his duty, after all, to nominate justices. But, I still think the politically savvy, if very cynical, move is to keep the nomination as a sort of season 1 cliffhanger.

I think the amount of "conservatives" who aren't going to vote for Trump if he doesn't wait to nominate a new justice is minuscule.

Maybe, but the amount of "liberals" that will vote for Trump is certainly zero either way, so any advantage is worth capitalizing on.

[Xenophon]

Good. It is his duty, after all, to nominate justices. But, I still think the politically savvy, if very cynical, move is to keep the nomination as a sort of season 1 cliffhanger.

I think the amount of "conservatives" who aren't going to vote for Trump if he doesn't wait to nominate a new justice is minuscule.

Maybe, but the amount of "liberals" that will vote for Trump is certainly zero either way, so any advantage is worth capitalizing on.

Trump wins if the left can't excite their voting base (i.e. women, young people, minorities). Blacks have typically low voter turnout, as do young people. Obama pandered to them in a way they believed, so he got two terms. Joe Biden plays Despacito on his phone to convince the Hispanics to vote for him.

I'm not thinking the lumpenproletariat will be coming out to vote this year.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

I think the amount of "conservatives" who aren't going to vote for Trump if he doesn't wait to nominate a new justice is minuscule.

Maybe, but the amount of "liberals" that will vote for Trump is certainly zero either way, so any advantage is worth capitalizing on.

Trump wins if the left can't excite their voting base (i.e. women, young people, minorities). Blacks have typically low voter turnout, as do young people. Obama pandered to them in a way they believed, so he got two terms. Joe Biden plays Despacito on his phone to convince the Hispanics to vote for him.

I'm not thinking the lumpenproletariat will be coming out to vote this year.

Well, if you don't think that 2020 has shown a voting population of youths and minorities that are already sufficiently engaged against Trump, then I shudder to think what high lumpenwhatsit engagement looks like.

[Xenophon]

Maybe, but the amount of "liberals" that will vote for Trump is certainly zero either way, so any advantage is worth capitalizing on.

Trump wins if the left can't excite their voting base (i.e. women, young people, minorities). Blacks have typically low voter turnout, as do young people. Obama pandered to them in a way they believed, so he got two terms. Joe Biden plays Despacito on his phone to convince the Hispanics to vote for him.

I'm not thinking the lumpenproletariat will be coming out to vote this year.

Well, if you don't think that 2020 has shown a voting population of youths and minorities that are already sufficiently engaged against Trump, then I shudder to think what high lumpenwhatsit engagement looks like.

Activism and actually showing up at the polls are two different things. Young people will go out and protest, but when it comes time to show up and actually vote, they don't show up in force.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Trump wins if the left can't excite their voting base (i.e. women, young people, minorities). Blacks have typically low voter turnout, as do young people. Obama pandered to them in a way they believed, so he got two terms. Joe Biden plays Despacito on his phone to convince the Hispanics to vote for him.

I'm not thinking the lumpenproletariat will be coming out to vote this year.

Well, if you don't think that 2020 has shown a voting population of youths and minorities that are already sufficiently engaged against Trump, then I shudder to think what high lumpenwhatsit engagement looks like.

Activism and actually showing up at the polls are two different things. Young people will go out and protest, but when it comes time to show up and actually vote, they don't show up in force.

Perhaps. Still, that suggests Trump will win either way, so if you are right, it makes no difference if Trump rushes the nomination now or waits until after November.

I think there are quite a few conservative voters that only voted for Trump in 2016 because of the Scalia vacancy, and that those voters will only vote for Trump again if their is an another imminent nomination, and that if 2016 is a model, Trump can't really afford to lose any of his first term voters.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Just to be clear, this is an argument against interest.

I very much want Trump to make a nomination, fill the bench, and then lose the 2020 race.

[Xenophon]

With the Left already wargaming a scenario where Trump wins on election night, only to be defeated by Biden as Gandalf returns with absentee ballots to save the day, I think it's a prudent move to go ahead and fill the court.

[The Conservative]

Just to be clear, this is an argument against interest.

I very much want Trump to make a nomination, fill the bench, and then lose the 2020 race.

I'm not sure he will lose. As somoene said before, I can run faster scared than you angry. Which basically means the DNC is angry, the RNC is scared... I think the people of the RNC will consolodate better in fear of what Biden and ultimately Harris/AOC/etc may do...

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

With the Left already wargaming a scenario where Trump wins on election night, only to be defeated by Biden as Gandalf returns with absentee ballots to save the day, I think it's a prudent move to go ahead and fill the court.

I think it is absolutely critical that the seat is filled, and that a serious, non-partisan jurist will likely find that the post election-night ballots that come in for Biden are valid votes.

I also have no reason to believe Trump will pick an un-serious, partisan jurist, given the two picks he has already had - so, yeah, absolutely, fill the seat.