Common Sense 319 – A Recipe for Caesar

[C-Mag]

Uh, they are saying that now, but when that number came out I believe it was with controls. I'll check and get back to you.

Uh.. no.

I read the paper the day it came out. It was always 2.2 million as the upper estimate if the United States did nothing and something like 400k if the UK did nothing.

The paper goes on to note that you can't just lock down and then open shit up without a vaccine as well. There are two waves and all we have done, if we are going to "save the economy" before we get a vaccine, is delayed the fatalities.

We are in a shitty situation. Nobody is going to sacrifice 2.2 million lives for these fucking markets.

You are correct. Here's the paper https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the US than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states (Figure 1B) than seen across GB. The higher peak in mortality in GB
16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 Page 7 of 20

is due to the smaller size of the country and its older population compared with the US. In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

I'm not convinced a vaccine is our only option.

[heydaralon]

100,000 global deaths as of now. Lool this has still less lethal than the regular flu is globally. What a clownshow.


Lets live in a police state because I just saw some Krugman Chink runny nose nanny state model. Hahahahah

OMG how precious. I can't believe I still found a flu bro left even at this late hour.

You said they would be literally locking people in their houses and that I'd be in a FEMA camp by now. At no point was closing grocery stores even considered. Shit, they still have liquor stores open. You also said Sanders would win the Dem nom. Is it safe to say that you don't have a crystal ball?

I've been wrong on a lot lately too, but this is not the end of the world, or the end of America, or the end of the international capitalist system.

Again, use this to your advantage. You are a smart dude. You should try to get a work at home coding gig of some kind and invest in energy companies or airlines right now. Rather than looking at this at the end of the world, you could view this as the beginning of your financial independence homesteading project.

I am in a far more precarious spot than you based on my job and have less mental tools and skills at my disposal, and I'm not losing my head. You shouldn't lose yours either.

[Speaker to Animals]

100,000 global deaths as of now. Lool this has still less lethal than the regular flu is globally. What a clownshow.


Lets live in a police state because I just saw some Krugman Chink runny nose nanny state model. Hahahahah

OMG how precious. I can't believe I still found a flu bro left even at this late hour.

You said they would be literally locking people in their houses and that I'd be in a FEMA camp by now. At no point was closing grocery stores even considered. Shit, they still have liquor stores open. You also said Sanders would win the Dem nom. Is it safe to say that you don't have a crystal ball?

I've been wrong on a lot lately too, but this is not the end of the world, or the end of America, or the end of the international capitalist system.

Again, use this to your advantage. You are a smart dude. You should try to get a work at home coding gig of some kind and invest in energy companies or airlines right now. Rather than looking at this at the end of the world, you could view this as the beginning of your financial independence homesteading project.

I am in a far more precarious spot than you based on my job and have less mental tools and skills at my disposal, and I'm not losing my head. You shouldn't lose yours either.

No, I said I would lock you in FEMA camp if I could.

But if it does swing out of control, you better believe that shit will happen.

[Montegriffo]

What makes you think the CDC, WHO and NIH have done a good job with this Pandemic ?
The WHO was saying mid January, no human to human transmission

No they didn't. What they said is they had no clear evidence that there was human to human transmission.
That's how scientists and other experts work, they look for clear evidence and if they can't find it they say so. When they had evidence they changed their stance.
Again, this is what scientists do. They change their opinion based on the latest and best evidence.
They are not like priests or politicians who cling to their story despite all the evidence.
What would you prefer they do, guess?

[Speaker to Animals]

It's kind of difficult at this point to criticize TDS. In a Darwinian sense, TDS is a survival trait. Communities run by people with TDS had a better chance of taking the disease seriously and limiting deaths.

Basically, take all the stupid shit Trump was saying in early Feb. Then assume he was full of shit at the time (he was). Do the opposite and plan for the worse. That was the optimal survival trait for the pandemic.

Hard to argue against survival. LOL


Even now, you probably should assume that, at some point, the ability is quite limited for people like Fauci to keep Trump from doing to the rest of America what he did to NYC. You should prepare for the worst. The idea that Trump can successfully navigate this crisis is laughable, really.

[Montegriffo]

It's kind of difficult at this point to criticize TDS. In a Darwinian sense, TDS is a survival trait. Communities run by people with TDS had a better chance of taking the disease seriously and limiting deaths.

Basically, take all the stupid shit Trump was saying in early Feb. Then assume he was full of shit at the time (he was). Do the opposite and plan for the worse. That was the optimal survival trait for the pandemic.

Hard to argue against survival. LOL


Even now, you probably should assume that, at some point, the ability is quite limited for people like Fauci to keep Trump from doing to the rest of America what he did to NYC. You should prepare for the worst. The idea that Trump can successfully navigate this crisis is laughable, really.

Hard to see how he can recover from his poor handling of the crisis in time for the November elections. As of a couple of days ago the US had around 26% of the world's confirmed cases despite having only about 4% of the world's population.
The US is also leading the world in Coronavirus deaths.
Meanwhile, Trump is still saying it will all be over soon and things will be back to normal after Easter.

[SuburbanFarmer]

It's kind of difficult at this point to criticize TDS. In a Darwinian sense, TDS is a survival trait. Communities run by people with TDS had a better chance of taking the disease seriously and limiting deaths.

Basically, take all the stupid shit Trump was saying in early Feb. Then assume he was full of shit at the time (he was). Do the opposite and plan for the worse. That was the optimal survival trait for the pandemic.

Hard to argue against survival. LOL


Even now, you probably should assume that, at some point, the ability is quite limited for people like Fauci to keep Trump from doing to the rest of America what he did to NYC. You should prepare for the worst. The idea that Trump can successfully navigate this crisis is laughable, really.

Hard to see how he can recover from his poor handling of the crisis in time for the November elections. As of a couple of days ago the US had around 26% of the world's confirmed cases despite having only about 4% of the world's population.
The US is also leading the world in Coronavirus deaths.
Meanwhile, Trump is still saying it will all be over soon and things will be back to normal after Easter.

We're number ONE!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Montegriffo]

It's kind of difficult at this point to criticize TDS. In a Darwinian sense, TDS is a survival trait. Communities run by people with TDS had a better chance of taking the disease seriously and limiting deaths.

Basically, take all the stupid shit Trump was saying in early Feb. Then assume he was full of shit at the time (he was). Do the opposite and plan for the worse. That was the optimal survival trait for the pandemic.

Hard to argue against survival. LOL


Even now, you probably should assume that, at some point, the ability is quite limited for people like Fauci to keep Trump from doing to the rest of America what he did to NYC. You should prepare for the worst. The idea that Trump can successfully navigate this crisis is laughable, really.

Hard to see how he can recover from his poor handling of the crisis in time for the November elections. As of a couple of days ago the US had around 26% of the world's confirmed cases despite having only about 4% of the world's population.
The US is also leading the world in Coronavirus deaths.
Meanwhile, Trump is still saying it will all be over soon and things will be back to normal after Easter.

We're number ONE!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

New York on its own would be the 5th worst affected if it were a country.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Hard to see how he can recover from his poor handling of the crisis in time for the November elections. As of a couple of days ago the US had around 26% of the world's confirmed cases despite having only about 4% of the world's population.
The US is also leading the world in Coronavirus deaths.
Meanwhile, Trump is still saying it will all be over soon and things will be back to normal after Easter.

We're number ONE!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

New York on its own would be the 5th worst affected if it were a country.

My tears could surely flood the harbor.

[Hanarchy Montanarchy]

Yeah, experts change their stance with better information. 2.2 mil was a worst case scenario based on information at the time. With better information, and careful application of preventative measures, the number comes down. Sounds like a relative win.

Negative. The 2.2 Million deaths included preventative measures like social distancing.

LOL. No it didn't. Am I the only one who read the paper??

It was literally the upper end estimate if the United States did nothing at all.

That is how I read it.