SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

[StCapps]

Fact is, any strategy that involves leaving mass isolation without a vaccine deployed requires the burden of proof. Proof. Not conjecture. You need data and evidence. This is basic risk analysis.

Instead I see a lot of Mammon worshippers crying rivers over the economy and advocating all sorts of stupid shit that doesn't even make any mathematical sense. Then they demand everybody prove these strategies will fail. Ridiculous.

Fact is, any strategy that involves destroying the economy requires the burden of proof. Proof. Not conjecture. You need data and evidence. This is basic risk analysis, ignoring either half the equation is not basic risk analysis, it's stupidity.

Already proven. You don't understand math. R0 in Italy and Spain began to fall below 1.0. LOL

Not proven. You are ignoring half the equation to tunnel vision on the other half, that is not risk analysis, it's blind faith in government intervention to fix the problem

You keep ignoring half the equation, while pretending those who weigh both sides are really just tunnel visioning on the half you're ignoring

[Speaker to Animals]

Fact is, any strategy that involves destroying the economy requires the burden of proof. Proof. Not conjecture. You need data and evidence. This is basic risk analysis, ignoring either half the equation is not basic risk analysis, it's stupidity.

Already proven. You don't understand math. R0 in Italy and Spain began to fall below 1.0. LOL

Not proven. You are ignoring half the equation to tunnel vision on the other half, that is not risk analysis, it's blind faith in government intervention to fix the problem

You keep ignoring half the equation, while pretending those weigh both sides are really just tunnel visioning on the half you're ignoring

Uh.. yeah.. proven.

They saw near-Black Death levels of fatalities in closed cases, and their entire nations faced collapsed from it, and so they imposed draconian isolation measures, which led to the R0 falling below 1.0 and a decline in cases/deaths. That's proof. Same thing happened in Wuhan.

The only proven remedy we have right now is isolation. Literally, the only thing we have proven to work you want to end because you worship markets.




Never forget that Jesus took a bullwhip to people like you and earlier than that sent you forced marching through endless desert for twenty years.

[StCapps]

Yo Mr. Math, what is the metric you are using to determine when to lift government imposed restrictions at some point in the future? Why do we need to wait for the vaccine before any restrictions whatsoever are lifted?

It is proven to work in the short term, not the long term, and the vaccine won't be developed in the short term, so another strategy is required

If there was a vaccine coming in August, you'd be right, but one isn't coming by then and the economic damage of shutting huge portions of the economy down for a year or more is very likely to be worse for human life than the virus itself.

[Speaker to Animals]

Yo Mr. Math, what is the metric you are using to determine when to lift government imposed restrictions at some point in the future? Why do we need to wait for the vaccine before any restrictions whatsoever are lifted?

It is proven to work in the short term, not the long term, and the vaccine won't be developed in the short term, so another strategy is required

The people who leave isolation for non-essential jobs should be immune, either because they fucked up and got sick, or because they were vaccinated. In the meantime, we deploy antibody tests. Anybody who has sufficient antibody counts to qualify as probably immune should be sent out to work.

Meanwhile we fast track the vaccine to the point where we take risks with lives such that the risk is lower than what we face from the pandemic if we proceed more slowly. The ideal is multiple vaccines deployed in less than a year. People will sign up to test this. Most of us realize the world is in jeopardy and are willing to do our part. The problem is not that we want to avoid risk to human life altogether, but that we don't throw lives away because we are God damned morons who don't understand exponential growth and because we think money and markets are God.

Most of us also are smart enough to realize the economy is already fucked no matter what we do and we are unwilling to murder two million Americans just to save something we know is fucking gone already.

[StCapps]

Yo Mr. Math, what is the metric you are using to determine when to lift government imposed restrictions at some point in the future? Why do we need to wait for the vaccine before any restrictions whatsoever are lifted?

It is proven to work in the short term, not the long term, and the vaccine won't be developed in the short term, so another strategy is required

The people who leave isolation for non-essential jobs should be immune, either because they fucked up and got sick, or because they were vaccinated. In the meantime, we deploy antibody tests. Anybody who has sufficient antibody counts to qualify as probably immune should be sent out to work.

Meanwhile we fast track the vaccine to the point where we take risks with lives such that the risk is lower than what we face from the pandemic if we proceed more slowly. The ideal is multiple vaccines deployed in less than a year. People will sign up to test this. Most of us realize the world is in jeopardy and are willing to do our part.

Most of also are smart enough to realize the economy is already fucked no matter what we do and we are unwilling to murder two million Americans just to save something we know if fucking gone already.

No one thinks two million Americans are going to die anymore, those numbers have been revised downward significantly based on new data. All the biggest death estimates have, and that trend is continuing, not going in the other direction with the more data that comes in.

The economy is fucked no matter what, but keeping it closed for longer leads to it being more fucked up, and that has a real impact on people's lives, that you are completely ignoring

Anti-body test are a great idea, but you still haven't answered when the metrics will show you that it's time to begin openings thing back up.

[Speaker to Animals]

No one thinks two million Americans are going to die anymore [snip]

No fucking shit. Because we imposed isolation measures, genius.

[StCapps]

No one thinks two million Americans are going to die anymore [snip]

No fucking shit. Because we imposed isolation measures, genius.

No, because those estimates were based on a small sample size and now the data shows something very different, though still based on a small sample size, but a bigger sample size than the previous projections

[Xenophon]

No one thinks two million Americans are going to die anymore [snip]

No fucking shit. Because we imposed isolation measures, genius.

No, because those estimates were based on a small sample size and now the data shows something very different

Also, the previous models estimating 2 million deaths had supposedly taken social isolation measures into account.

[Speaker to Animals]

No one thinks two million Americans are going to die anymore [snip]

No fucking shit. Because we imposed isolation measures, genius.

No, because those estimates were based on a small sample size and now the data shows something very different

Uh.. yeah. You are talking out of ignorance again. Learn to math. I am not going to play these silly games with you.

[Speaker to Animals]

No fucking shit. Because we imposed isolation measures, genius.

No, because those estimates were based on a small sample size and now the data shows something very different

Also, the previous estimate of 2 million deaths had supposedly taken social isolation measures into account.

No, they did not. I read the fucking paper from the Imperial College of London. It was the upper count of deaths if we did nothing in the US.