SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

[Montegriffo]

If you are going to rant and rave about how we should have acted more like South Korea without understanding the reasons it was not possible, at best you are just noise and at worse you are advocating policies that will cost lives.
South Korea was able to contain the spread because it had sufficient testing capacity, adequate supplies of PPE, a surveillance society which allowed for better tracking and a compliant society prepared to do what they were told.
Most other nations did not have these conditions in place and to make matters worse some had leaders who downplayed the seriousness of the bug and did very little in the early stages to contain it.
South Korea had the infrastructure in place and acted very quickly while most of the rest of the world just watched what was happening in China and focused on the fact that it was mostly harmless to anyone who was not elderly or who didn't have a pre-existing condition.

[StCapps]

If you are going to rant and rave about how we should have acted more like South Korea without understanding the reasons it was not possible, at best you are just noise and at worse you are advocating policies that will cost lives.

I'm not doing that, I understand the reasons it was possible and am merely point out that many of those reasons are easily replicated by other nations, while you pretend there is nothing to learn from SK, only something to learn from Italy and China

The infrastructure gap is closing Monte, America will soon pass them in per capita testing, and they already have greater medical capacity

Surveillance and counterproductive government crackdowns are not the secret sauce that made everything else work, there is plenty to be learned from their example, you are just taking all the wrong lessons from their example

The wide scale testing and isolation of the sick and vulnerable combined with adequate medical capacity, was the secret sauce

That isn't hard to copy, once that gap has been closed

[Manwithnoname]

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04- ... fmredir=sm

If the number sits under one for a period of time things will be relaxed until it begins climbing back close to it. When it sits above one it would be madness to relax anything, and tougher rules might have to come into play if it shows no sign of falling

Blowing your wad when all it is doing is kicking the can down the road, that means you won't have it when you need it, so be careful what you wish for

Lockdowns aren't anything more than a short term mitigation strategy and should be timed to mitigate the peak accordingly, because acting like they are long term solution until a vaccine is found is not realistic

Doing it for more than a month or two during the highs does more damage than the damage it is mitigating

This is going to be a long war, and tunnel visioning on short term measures and ignoring the long term damage done is going to lead to reduced ability to address the issue in the long term, and do more damage overall

Obviously none of this is ideal, and the choice is between wrecking the economy or digging mass graves. And it’s no point worrying about what the second spike will look like when the first one is still out of control

[StCapps]

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04- ... fmredir=sm

If the number sits under one for a period of time things will be relaxed until it begins climbing back close to it. When it sits above one it would be madness to relax anything, and tougher rules might have to come into play if it shows no sign of falling

Blowing your wad when all it is doing is kicking the can down the road, that means you won't have it when you need it, so be careful what you wish for

Lockdowns aren't anything more than a short term mitigation strategy and should be timed to mitigate the peak accordingly, because acting like they are long term solution until a vaccine is found is not realistic

Doing it for more than a month or two during the highs does more damage than the damage it is mitigating

This is going to be a long war, and tunnel visioning on short term measures and ignoring the long term damage done is going to lead to reduced ability to address the issue in the long term, and do more damage overall

Obviously none of this is ideal, and the choice is between wrecking the economy or digging mass graves. And it’s no point worrying about what the second spike will look like when the first one is still out of control

False dichotomy

There is also a worst of all worlds and best of all worlds option, and a range of options in between, none of which are ideal either, but still vastly preferable to overkill by destroying the economy, and/or maximizing the viral death total

The more you destroy the economy, the more lives that are saved and the more economy is saved, the more lives are destroyed, are simply not true

You can reduce hospitalizations and death while doing less economic damage than those with the most draconian government crackdows, at the same time, if you do it right, SK knows

Italy and China are the closest to the worst of both worlds, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are the closest to the best of all worlds

Those nations who are closer to the South Korean model are doing the best job of the bunch, and those closer to the Chinese model are doing the worst of the bunch, I really don't think that's a coincidence, yet so many are advocating following the China/Italy model, it makes no sense

[Montegriffo]

If you are going to rant and rave about how we should have acted more like South Korea without understanding the reasons it was not possible, at best you are just noise and at worse you are advocating policies that will cost lives.

I'm not doing that, I understand the reasons it was possible and am merely point out that many of those reasons are easily replicated by other nations, while you pretend there is nothing to learn from SK, only something to learn from Italy and China

The infrastructure gap is closing Monte, America will soon pass them in per capita testing, and they already have greater medical capacity

Surveillance and counterproductive government crackdowns are not the secret sauce that made everything else work, there is plenty to be learned from there example, you are just taking all the wrong lessons from their example

The wide scale testing and isolation of the sick and vulnerable combined with adequate medical capacity, was the secret sauce, and that isn't hard to copy, once that gap has been closed

See, you are still completely misunderstanding why SK has been able to contain the spread of the virus.
It's no good having the testing capacity once the virus has already spread widely in the population. SK contained it early on and as a result has had fewer cases and less drastic economic consequences.
To learn from South Korea you have to understand why they have been more successful.
The main reason is preparedness. They learnt from previous outbreaks and acted so they would not be caught out by being unprepared again.
This is the lesson to be learnt from South Korea but it's too late for this particular virus, hopefully we will learn it in time for the next one.

[StCapps]

If you are going to rant and rave about how we should have acted more like South Korea without understanding the reasons it was not possible, at best you are just noise and at worse you are advocating policies that will cost lives.

I'm not doing that, I understand the reasons it was possible and am merely point out that many of those reasons are easily replicated by other nations, while you pretend there is nothing to learn from SK, only something to learn from Italy and China

The infrastructure gap is closing Monte, America will soon pass them in per capita testing, and they already have greater medical capacity

Surveillance and counterproductive government crackdowns are not the secret sauce that made everything else work, there is plenty to be learned from there example, you are just taking all the wrong lessons from their example

The wide scale testing and isolation of the sick and vulnerable combined with adequate medical capacity, was the secret sauce, and that isn't hard to copy, once that gap has been closed

See, you are still completely misunderstanding why SK has been able to contain the spread of the virus.

Projection

[Manwithnoname]

Blowing your wad when all it is doing is kicking the can down the road, that means you won't have it when you need it, so be careful what you wish for

Lockdowns aren't anything more than a short term mitigation strategy and should be timed to mitigate the peak accordingly, because acting like they are long term solution until a vaccine is found is not realistic

Doing it for more than a month or two during the highs does more damage than the damage it is mitigating

This is going to be a long war, and tunnel visioning on short term measures and ignoring the long term damage done is going to lead to reduced ability to address the issue in the long term, and do more damage overall

Obviously none of this is ideal, and the choice is between wrecking the economy or digging mass graves. And it’s no point worrying about what the second spike will look like when the first one is still out of control

False dichotomy

There is also a worst of all worlds and best of all worlds option, and a range of options in between, none of which are ideal either, but still vastly preferable to destroying the economy, and/or maximizing the viral death total

The more you destroy the economy, the more lives that are saved and the more economy is saved the more lives are destroyed, is simply not true

I agree with that. A lot of the measures made no sense and I get the feeling they were suggested by overworked committees and then rubber stamped by lawmakers who probably didn’t do more than flick through the list.
Nobody knows how this is really going to play out, and it has hit incredibly fast. Mistakes were and will be made. Some countries will panic at the nose diving economy and relax things too soon bringing all manner of hurt on themselves, others will err on the caution and do decades of economic damage. There will be a lucky few that get the mix right, but I’d suspect that will be more luck than skill.
There is no right or wrong right now because there is no rule book for this. Only history will be able to judge that

[StCapps]

If you are going to rant and rave about how we should have acted more like South Korea without understanding the reasons it was not possible, at best you are just noise and at worse you are advocating policies that will cost lives.

I'm not doing that, I understand the reasons it was possible and am merely point out that many of those reasons are easily replicated by other nations, while you pretend there is nothing to learn from SK, only something to learn from Italy and China

The infrastructure gap is closing Monte, America will soon pass them in per capita testing, and they already have greater medical capacity

Surveillance and counterproductive government crackdowns are not the secret sauce that made everything else work, there is plenty to be learned from there example, you are just taking all the wrong lessons from their example

The wide scale testing and isolation of the sick and vulnerable combined with adequate medical capacity, was the secret sauce, and that isn't hard to copy, once that gap has been closed

See, you are still completely misunderstanding why SK has been able to contain the spread of the virus.
It's no good having the testing capacity once the virus has already spread widely in the population. SK contained it early on and as a result has had fewer cases and less drastic economic consequences.
To learn from South Korea you have to understand why they have been more successful.
The main reason is preparedness. They learnt from previous outbreaks and acted so they would not be caught out by being unprepared again.
This is the lesson to be learnt from South Korea but it's too late for this particular virus, hopefully we will learn it in time for the next one.

Once the peak is over, and the viral spread begins to move a low point in the summer, widespread testing will be there in some nations, including America, and they will be more prepared for the next wave, so staying lockdown at that point will not be optimal

Of course if the second wave is far more lethal the first, that capacity may not be enough, but staying in lockdown long before the peak of the second wave is going to help very little with that, and the economic damage will be massive, so that's a terrible tradeoff. If the virus is near as deadly or less deadly, in that second wave, then the capacity will be more than enough to pivot to the SK model.

I understand why SK was successful, the only good points you are making in that regard, I already agree with

You simply refuse to admit that not destroying the economy as much as they could have was a big part of their success and will pay dividends down the road when a second wave hits them, and/or you refuse to believe it is possible for any other major nation to follow suit at some point and see positive results by doing so as well.

[Montegriffo]

You simply refuse to admit that not destroying the economy as much as they could have was a big part of their success and will pay dividends down the road when a second wave hits them, and/or you refuse to believe it is possible for any other major nation to follow suit at some point and see positive results by doing so as well.

You have that completely backwards.
Not damaging the economy as badly was a result of their early success in containing the virus not the reason they were successful.
Protecting the economy and allowing the virus to spread is simply putting money above lives.
The reason we have had to shut down our economies more than SK is because of our failure to contain. Due to a lack of testing capacity early on, a shortage of PPE and delays in shutting down.
Add to that a bunch of partisan morons who thought it was all a Democrat hoax to bring down Trump and you can see why the US is one of the worst effected developed nations.

[StCapps]

You simply refuse to admit that not destroying the economy as much as they could have was a big part of their success and will pay dividends down the road when a second wave hits them, and/or you refuse to believe it is possible for any other major nation to follow suit at some point and see positive results by doing so as well.

You have that completely backwards.
Not damaging the economy as badly was a result of their early success in containing the virus not the reason they were successful.

Nah it's both, the combination is the reason for the success, best of both worlds, not a lame false dichotomy