SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

[Smitty-48]

The bug is inherently disruptive at the strategic level

There is no steady state, there is no quick fix, there is no comfort zone, the bug will run amok

I'm just braced and paced for it to be much more complex and persistent than anybody is thinking right now

The war will go one for much longer than they think and not be solved by anything short of a vaccine

Totally agree

Other than that general maxim, wars last longer and are much tougher than people expect, I got nothing

I don't really even have an opinion, except on general warfighting concepts of operations

All I really have to report to the internet, is what I am doing, myself personally

I can riff on that, anything else is waste of energy, because I don't know anything else right now, for certain

[StCapps]

I can riff on that, anything else is waste of energy, because I don't know anything else right now, for certain

I don't know anything else for certain either, but I don't see it as a waste of energy to speculate on the little data that is available, with the small sample size caveat, though I get why you don't see the use in it.

Our mileage on that varies

[Smitty-48]

It's like people think that if they test positive, that means they are immune now

But what if they had no symptoms because the bug was not attacking them ?

If the bug passed through you as a carrier, but never attacked, how many antibodies did that give you ?

Also, people don't understand that everybody's antibodies are unique, like a fingerprint

So one person could have immunity, the other could drop dead from a second wave

[StCapps]

It's like people think that if they test positive, that means they are immune now

But what if they had no symptoms because the bug was not attacking them ?

If the bug passed through you as a carrier, but never attacked, how many antibodies did that give you ?

Also, people don't understand that everybody's antibodies are unique, like a fingerprint

So one person could have immunity, the other could drop dead from a second wave

This is why proper anti-body testing will help lift a little of the fog of war on this, I look forward to making the small sample size a little bit bigger when they figure that out and start deploying it en masse, and lifting a little of that fog as a result

These are uncertainties that it will be very helpful to clear up to some degree, if possible

[Smitty-48]

These are uncertainties that it will be very helpful to clear up to some degree, if possible

I just don't buy the optimistic scenarios, wishful thinking is a helluva drug

This bug is much weirder and more complex than the one that they have advertised in the media & halls of power

They are never going to say "we don't know" so they fill the void with happy talk

So I'm not listening to the media-gov at all, I just look at the weapons effects of the bug

The novel nature of it, allowing it to run amok, it has even incited schizophrenia by attacking the brain

This bug is new, they don't know much at all about how it does what it does, so no actual cause for optimism

[StCapps]

These are uncertainties that it will be very helpful to clear up to some degree, if possible

I just don't buy the optimistic scenarios, wishful thinking is a helluva drug

This bug is much weirder and complex than the one that they have advertised in the media & halls of power

They are never going to say "we don't know" so they fill the void with happy talk

So I'm not listening to media-gov at all, I just look at the weapons effects of the bug

It's novel nature, allowing it to run amok, it has even incited schizophrenia by attacking the brain

This bug is new, they don't know much at all about how it does what it does, so no actual cause for optimism

Thing about this level of uncertainty though, it could work in either direction, it might be nowhere near as bad as we think or it might be so much worse than we think, or anywhere in between

Hope for the best, Brace for the worst

The media and halls of power will of course pretend that they are certain, even when they aren't

That is a given, some will over hype it, some will under hype it

Wishful thinking can manifest in thinking it's worse than it is and it can manifest into thinking it it's better than it is, especially with media fueled by TDS and Trump going the optimistic route

Confirmation bias is a helluva drug

[Smitty-48]

Hope for the best, Brace for the worst

I do neither, I just put one foot in front of the other, one day at a tine

I don't try to outsmart the bug, I just stay in my compound

Don't get cute with a biological weapon

[StCapps]

Hope for the best, Brace for the worst

I do neither, I just put one foot in front of the other, one day at a tine

I don't try to outsmart the bug, I just stay in my compound

One can live in the now, hope for the best, and brace for the worst, simultaneously

The caveat being that bracing for the worst doesn't include doomsday prepping because if it really is doom, then there is nothing to prep for

That's how I prefer to roll, Multi-tasking ftw, so long as it doesn't disrupt focus on what really matters

[Manwithnoname]

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04- ... fmredir=sm

If the number sits under one for a period of time things will be relaxed until it begins climbing back close to it. When it sits above one it would be madness to relax anything, and tougher rules might have to come into play if it shows no sign of falling

[StCapps]

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04- ... fmredir=sm

If the number sits under one for a period of time things will be relaxed until it begins climbing back close to it. When it sits above one it would be madness to relax anything, and tougher rules might have to come into play if it shows no sign of falling

Blowing your wad when all it is doing is kicking the can down the road, that means you won't have it when you need it, so be careful what you wish for

Lockdowns aren't anything more than a short term mitigation strategy and should be timed to mitigate the peak accordingly, because acting like they are long term solution until a vaccine is found is not realistic

Doing it for more than a month or two during the highs does more damage than the damage it is mitigating

This is going to be a long war, and tunnel visioning on short term measures and ignoring the long term damage done is going to lead to reduced ability to address the issue in the long term, and do more damage overall