SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

[Smitty-48]

America is closing in on South Korean levels of per capita testing as we speak, and their medical capacity isn't going to be overwhelmed in the first wave

America could totally switch to the South Korean model in short order after this thing peaks, if they are smart

I'm not expecting that anytime soon, I'm hunkered down indefinitely

Like if they lift the restrictions now I think the death rate will shoot up and then they will abort

That isn't happening in South Korea, the restrictions can be eased once testing and medical capacity reach South Korea's current levels as of right now, at the very least

The death rate will not spike to the point of needing to go with the Italian or Chinese model if that happens, though it will rise a little from where it would be if they continue to employ the Italian strategy, but the economic damage won't be anywhere near as severe which is more than worth that trade off, at least based on the data thus far

Following the model of countries handling this the worst instead of the countries handling this the best, is not a good pitch

The only good excuses to do that is that countries not going with the South Koran model aren't as prepared as they are right now, but once that gap is closed, the only good excuse to go with the Italian model is gone

Says who ?

[StCapps]

I'm not expecting that anytime soon, I'm hunkered down indefinitely

Like if they lift the restrictions now I think the death rate will shoot up and then they will abort

That isn't happening in South Korea, the restrictions can be eased once testing and medical capacity reach South Korea's current levels as of right now, at the very least

The death rate will not spike to the point of needing to go with the Italian or Chinese model if that happens, though it will rise a little from where it would be if they continue to employ the Italian strategy, but the economic damage won't be anywhere near as severe which is more than worth that trade off, at least based on the data thus far

Following the model of countries handling this the worst instead of the countries handling this the best, is not a good pitch

The only good excuses to do that is that countries not going with the South Koran model aren't as prepared as they are right now, but once that gap is closed, the only good excuse to go with the Italian model is gone

Says who ?

Says me, and the current data I'm looking at

South Korea even at their peak didn't go with the Italian model and didn't see a huge spike in death rates, and post peak that is even more so the case. What they are doing is working way better than what Italy, China, The US and Canada are doing, and they aren't doing anywhere near the economic damage on top of it, best of both worlds

[Smitty-48]

That isn't happening in South Korea, the restrictions can be eased once testing and medical capacity reach South Korea's current levels as of right now, at the very least

The death rate will not spike to the point of needing to go with the Italian or Chinese model if that happens, though it will rise a little from where it would be if they continue to employ the Italian strategy, but the economic damage won't be anywhere near as severe which is more than worth that trade off, at least based on the data thus far

Following the model of countries handling this the worst instead of the countries handling this the best, is not a good pitch

The only good excuses to do that is that countries not going with the South Koran model aren't as prepared as they are right now, but once that gap is closed, the only good excuse to go with the Italian model is gone

Says who ?

Says me, and the current data I'm looking at

South Korea even at their peak didn't go with the Italian model and didn't see a huge spike in death rates, and post peak that is even more so the case. What they are doing is working way better than what Italy, China, The US and Canada are doing, and they aren't doing anywhere near the economic damage on top of it, best of both worlds

Whoop dee doo

Neither Canada nor America are anything like South Korea

I'm not expecting either to become South Korea like anytime soon /shrugs

[StCapps]

Says who ?

Says me, and the current data I'm looking at

South Korea even at their peak didn't go with the Italian model and didn't see a huge spike in death rates, and post peak that is even more so the case. What they are doing is working way better than what Italy, China, The US and Canada are doing, and they aren't doing anywhere near the economic damage on top of it, best of both worlds

Whoop dee do

Neither Canada nor America are anything like South Korea and I'm not expecting them become South Korea like anytime soon /shrugs

In terms of testing capacity and medical capacity, relative to the death rates, they ain't that far off

Like I say, America will soon have done more testing per capita than South Korea, and their medical capacity will not be exceeded by the first wave, so the curve has been flattened enough that by the time the peak passes, testing capacity will be at or exceeding South Korean levels, as will there medical capacity

All the major obstacles in implementing the South Korean strategy are looking like they will be gone by the end of April

[Smitty-48]

Says me, and the current data I'm looking at

South Korea even at their peak didn't go with the Italian model and didn't see a huge spike in death rates, and post peak that is even more so the case. What they are doing is working way better than what Italy, China, The US and Canada are doing, and they aren't doing anywhere near the economic damage on top of it, best of both worlds

Whoop dee do

Neither Canada nor America are anything like South Korea and I'm not expecting them become South Korea like anytime soon /shrugs

In terms of testing capacity and medical capacity, relative to the death rates, they ain't that far off

Like I say, America will soon have done more testing per capita than South Korea, and their medical capacity will not be exceeded by the first wave

Medical capacity not exceeded is neither here nor there to the economy,

COVID is still going to be scary enough to keep most of it crippled at depression levels, until there is a vaccine

[Smitty-48]

Like I don't think the markets are done crashing yet, this seems like a big stimulus suckers rally right now

[StCapps]

COVID is still going to be scary enough to keep most of it crippled at depression levels, until there is a vaccine

True but the government piling on with counterproductive central planning exacerbates that issue, and after the peak has passed, they can afford to incrementally ease up on the draconian government mandated shutdowns and stop doing more damage than necessary, especially during the summer

Pivoting to the South Korean model is the way to go

[Smitty-48]

COVID is still going to be scary enough to keep most of it crippled at depression levels, until there is a vaccine

True but the government piling on with counterproductive central planning exacerbates that issue, blah, blah, blah

Your expectations of how wars work seem unrealistic to me

The government didn't fight World War Two very well neither, that's why it took so long

Vietnam also did not go so well, what were you expecting ? Ron Paultopia ?

[StCapps]

COVID is still going to be scary enough to keep most of it crippled at depression levels, until there is a vaccine

True but the government piling on with counterproductive central planning exacerbates that issue, blah, blah, blah

Your expectations of how wars work seem unrealistic to me

The government didn't fight World War Two very well neither, that's why it took so long

Vietnam also did not go so well, what were you expecting ? Ron Paultopia ?

I am not stating my expectations, I am stating the optimal strategy to fight the war, based on those who are fighting the war the best as we speak

[Smitty-48]

True but the government piling on with counterproductive central planning exacerbates that issue, blah, blah, blah

Your expectations of how wars work seem unrealistic to me

The government didn't fight World War Two very well neither, that's why it took so long

Vietnam also did not go so well, what were you expecting ? Ron Paultopia ?

I am not stating my expectations, I am stating the optimal strategy to fight the war, I never said most governments are smart enough to listen

I'm not interested in shoulda woulda coulda perfect world scenarios,

I fight the war that is, not the war that Capps wants it to be /shrugs