SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

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StCapps
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by StCapps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:27 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:24 pm
Like forget sports, that's not coming back soon, nobody is going crowd into arenas, the players will refuse to play
They just cancelled the April 18 PPV, Disney forced the UFC's hand
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StCapps
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by StCapps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:28 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:26 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:25 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:24 pm


I don't think it's going to open up just because they lift the restrictions, I don't expect a V shaped recovery

More likely they will have after shocks and it will be a series of regional shutdowns, in waves
I'm just talking about the restrictions, not what people will do after many of them are lifted
I think the restrictions will be like this or similar, for months, all summer long, into the fall

Like I'm not banking on the NHL coming back next season
If so, the economic damage is going to outweigh the damage done by the virus

Things can't remain shutdown like this for a year or more, they have to ease up to some degree
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by Smitty-48 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:30 pm

StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:28 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:26 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:25 pm
I'm just talking about the restrictions, not what people will do after many of them are lifted
I think the restrictions will be like this or similar, for months, all summer long, into the fall

Like I'm not banking on the NHL coming back next season
If so, the economic damage is going to outweigh the damage done by the virus
In the short term the economic damage is going to be catastrophic, it already is

But that's how wars go, wars destroy your economy, this the is price of unpreparedness in real time

This is the chaos I've been talking about on the MLW,

the bubble which was going to pop and push debt ridden Canadians over the edge
Nec Aspera Terrent

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StCapps
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by StCapps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:32 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:30 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:28 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:26 pm

I think the restrictions will be like this or similar, for months, all summer long, into the fall

Like I'm not banking on the NHL coming back next season
If so, the economic damage is going to outweigh the damage done by the virus
In the short term the economic damage is going to be catastrophic, it already is

But that's how wars go, wars destroy your economy, this the is price of unpreparedness in real time

This is the chaos I've been talking about on the MLW,

the bubble which going to pop and push debt ridden Canadians over the edge
Indeed, but a lot of it is completely unnecessary and counter-productive, and the governments who handled this the best already know that, as they engaged in a whole lot less of it and death toll did not skyrocket as the SIFCLFs predicted

South Korea knows
Last edited by StCapps on Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by Smitty-48 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:35 pm

StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:32 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:30 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:28 pm
If so, the economic damage is going to outweigh the damage done by the virus
In the short term the economic damage is going to be catastrophic, it already is

But that's how wars go, wars destroy your economy, this the is price of unpreparedness in real time

This is the chaos I've been talking about on the MLW,

the bubble which going to pop and push debt ridden Canadians over the edge
Indeed, but a lot of it is completely unnecessary and counter-productive, and the governments who handled this the best already know that, as they engaged in a whole lot less of it and death toll did not skyrocket as the SIFCLFs predicted

South Korea knows
Doesn't matter,

it's like saying the French Army got beat by the Germans because the French fell apart in the Blitzkrieg

Yes, they did, that's war, shit happens, so what ?

South Korea is fully militarized, they are more prepared, that doesn't change anything here
Nec Aspera Terrent

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StCapps
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by StCapps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:37 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:35 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:32 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:30 pm


In the short term the economic damage is going to be catastrophic, it already is

But that's how wars go, wars destroy your economy, this the is price of unpreparedness in real time

This is the chaos I've been talking about on the MLW,

the bubble which going to pop and push debt ridden Canadians over the edge
Indeed, but a lot of it is completely unnecessary and counter-productive, and the governments who handled this the best already know that, as they engaged in a whole lot less of it and death toll did not skyrocket as the SIFCLFs predicted

South Korea knows
Doesn't matter,

it's like saying the French Army got beat by the Germans because the French fell apart in the Blitzkrieg

Yes, they did, that's war, shit happens, so what ?

South Korea is fully militarized, they are more prepared, that doesn't change anything here
Them being more prepared doesn't mean they aren't the model to emulate

Take necessary measures early, but don't destroy the economy more than you need to be overreacting with draconian government shutdowns, that's the best strategy

The countries who followed that model the least happen to be the hardest hit nations, coincidence, I think not
Last edited by StCapps on Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by Smitty-48 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:39 pm

StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:37 pm
Them being more prepared doesn't mean they aren't the model to emulate
Good luck with that, I'm not going to hold my breath

Ontario said that they would be testing 15,000 a day now, they are only testing 2,500

So Ontario is getting its ass handed to it in a blitz, the bug is moving faster, the bug is dictating the terms
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StCapps
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by StCapps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:40 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:39 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:37 pm
Them being more prepared doesn't mean they aren't the model to emulate
Good luck with that, I'm not going to hold my breath

Ontario said that they would be testing 15,000 a day now, they are only testing 2,500

So Ontario is getting its ass handed to it in a blitz, the bug is moving faster, the bug is dictating the terms
America is closing in on South Korean levels of per capita testing as we speak, and their medical capacity isn't going to be overwhelmed in the first wave

America could totally switch to the South Korean model in short order after this thing peaks, if they are smart

As for Ontario, once the peak passes and testing and medical capacity has ramped up, they could easily follow suit

Continuing to cling to draconian government shut downs once they testing and medical capacity are no longer the issue they once were, makes no sense
Last edited by StCapps on Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by Smitty-48 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:42 pm

StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:40 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:39 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:37 pm
Them being more prepared doesn't mean they aren't the model to emulate
Good luck with that, I'm not going to hold my breath

Ontario said that they would be testing 15,000 a day now, they are only testing 2,500

So Ontario is getting its ass handed to it in a blitz, the bug is moving faster, the bug is dictating the terms
America is closing in on South Korean levels of per capita testing as we speak, and their medical capacity isn't going to be overwhelmed in the first wave

America could totally switch to the South Korean model in short order after this thing peaks, if they are smart
I'm not expecting that anytime soon, I'm hunkered down indefinitely

Like if they lift the restrictions now I think the death rate will shoot up and then they will abort
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StCapps
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Re: SARS Pt. 2 - Wuhan Boogaloo

Post by StCapps » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:42 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:42 pm
StCapps wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:40 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:39 pm


Good luck with that, I'm not going to hold my breath

Ontario said that they would be testing 15,000 a day now, they are only testing 2,500

So Ontario is getting its ass handed to it in a blitz, the bug is moving faster, the bug is dictating the terms
America is closing in on South Korean levels of per capita testing as we speak, and their medical capacity isn't going to be overwhelmed in the first wave

America could totally switch to the South Korean model in short order after this thing peaks, if they are smart
I'm not expecting that anytime soon, I'm hunkered down indefinitely

Like if they lift the restrictions now I think the death rate will shoot up and then they will abort
That isn't happening in South Korea, the restrictions can be eased once testing and medical capacity reach South Korea's current levels as of right now, at the very least

The death rate will not spike to the point of needing to go with the Italian or Chinese model if that happens, though it will rise a little from where it would be if they continue to employ the Italian strategy, but the economic damage won't be anywhere near as severe which is more than worth that trade off, at least based on the data thus far

Following the model of countries handling this the worst instead of the countries handling this the best, is not a good pitch

The only good excuses to do that is that countries not going with the South Koran model aren't as prepared as they are right now, but once that gap is closed, the only good excuse to go with the Italian model is gone
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