An apology

[SuburbanFarmer]

Not sure how it makes sense to start a war right now. What would be the point?

Nobody is going to set out to start a thermonuclear war

But if it spirals down, hegemons like India, Pakistan, North Korea, even Israel, could be backs against the wall.

These are not stable fault lines as in Cold War One

Once hegemons are backs against the wall, they start to ramp their bulwarks up

The tensions rise and it starts to feed on itself

Next thing you know they are in an escalatory loop, measure begets countermeasure, tit for tat

Once you are into brinkmanship, the fog of war ensues

In the fog of war, there can be launch on false warning, and then we are away to the races

I guess I don’t understand what would even kick that cycle off though. Everybody puts their military on alert - why?
Somebody shoots at somebody - why?

Seems completely pointless at a time like this.

[Smitty-48]

why?

Covfefe-19

The pandemic is destabilizing, it's wreaking havoc, it's the Black Swan

[SuburbanFarmer]

why?

Covfefe-19

The pandemic is destabilizing, it's wreaking havoc, it's the Black Swan

Yes, but how does that even involve military action, other than to help with medical care?

[Smitty-48]

why?

Covfefe-19

The pandemic is destabilizing, it's wreaking havoc, it's the Black Swan

Yes, but how does that even involve military action, other than to help with medical care?

The shutdown makes everybody vulnerable, when they get vulnerable, they ramp up their bulwarks

They also lash out for scapegoats

China is accusing America of planting the virus as a biowarfare attack,

America is accusing China of launching this as a biowarfare attack

Remember, it's all about the submarines, you don't see the Silent War, and it's never on tv

[SuburbanFarmer]

Covfefe-19

The pandemic is destabilizing, it's wreaking havoc, it's the Black Swan

Yes, but how does that even involve military action, other than to help with medical care?

The shutdown makes everybody vulnerable, when they get vulnerable, they ramp up their bulwarks

They also lash out for scapegoats

China is accusing America of planting the virus as a biowarfare attack,

America is accusing China of launching this as a biowarfare attack

Remember, it's all about the submarines, you don't see the Silent War, and it's never on tv

Just politics as usual there though. You don’t blow up the world over a virus.

You mentioned India/Pakistan. How does that be me a flashpoint at the moment? I know about their standoff, but that’s had years to calcify now.

[Smitty-48]

Yes, but how does that even involve military action, other than to help with medical care?

The shutdown makes everybody vulnerable, when they get vulnerable, they ramp up their bulwarks

They also lash out for scapegoats

China is accusing America of planting the virus as a biowarfare attack,

America is accusing China of launching this as a biowarfare attack

Remember, it's all about the submarines, you don't see the Silent War, and it's never on tv

Just politics as usual there though. You don’t blow up the world over a virus.

You mentioned India/Pakistan. How does that be me a flashpoint at the moment? I know about their standoff, but that’s had years to calcify now.

It's not calcified dude, they had an air battle just the other day, Indian MiG-21 shot down a Pak F-16

[SuburbanFarmer]

The shutdown makes everybody vulnerable, when they get vulnerable, they ramp up their bulwarks

They also lash out for scapegoats

China is accusing America of planting the virus as a biowarfare attack,

America is accusing China of launching this as a biowarfare attack

Remember, it's all about the submarines, you don't see the Silent War, and it's never on tv

Just politics as usual there though. You don’t blow up the world over a virus.

You mentioned India/Pakistan. How does that be me a flashpoint at the moment? I know about their standoff, but that’s had years to calcify now.

It's not calcified dude, they had an air battle just the other day, Indian MiG-21 shot down a Pak F-16

Did not know that. Interesting.

So say those two idiots come to blows, how does that rope in the rest of us? We don’t have alliances with either, that I’m aware of..

[Smitty-48]

Just politics as usual there though. You don’t blow up the world over a virus.

You mentioned India/Pakistan. How does that be me a flashpoint at the moment? I know about their standoff, but that’s had years to calcify now.

It's not calcified dude, they had an air battle just the other day, Indian MiG-21 shot down a Pak F-16

Did not know that. Interesting.

So say those two idiots come to blows, how does that rope in the rest of us? We don’t have alliances with either, that I’m aware of..

India & China are sworn enemies, Pakistan & China are allies

if China ramps up, America ramps up, and so on and so forth

Once the fur starts to fly on the high seas, King Dollar rules the waves, so King Dollar is in the breach

[SuburbanFarmer]

It's not calcified dude, they had an air battle just the other day, Indian MiG-21 shot down a Pak F-16

Did not know that. Interesting.

So say those two idiots come to blows, how does that rope in the rest of us? We don’t have alliances with either, that I’m aware of..

India and China are sworn enemies, Pakistan & China are allies

if China ramps up, America ramps up, and so on and so forth

Once the fur starts to fly on the high seas, King Dollar rules the waves, so King Dollar is in the breach

From a brief glance at it, it looks like India is fighting to hang onto Kashmir, which is more ethnically Paki, and doesn’t want to be Indian... seems like a stupid hill to die on.

[Smitty-48]

From a brief glance at it, it looks like India is fighting to hang onto Kashmir, which is more ethnically Paki, and doesn’t want to be Indian... seems like a stupid hill to die on.

The fault line is asymmetrical

India over matches Pakistan, Pakistan is David, India is Goliath

If Pakistan ends up backs against the wall, they are going to have to ramp up way more than India to compensate

This would set India off, which would set China off, and so on and so forth