heydaralon wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:44 am
Speaker to Animals wrote: ↑Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:24 pm
Well, there are only a few hours left in the week and that might make the dumbest thing I have read for the week.
This thing shows similar severity as the Spanish Flu pandemic, and there is a pretty good chance we are going to be locked down just like China and now parts of Italy.
In my honest opinion, 2300 dead is not anywhere near spanish flu's 100 mil.
Again, this could be the new AIDS. It is likely, no certain rather, that the people who died of this were homosexuals. What do we know about the dead? They were going on cruises. That seems gay on the face of it. It is. They had weakened immune systems. Gays also have this problem. Many gays have single digit numbers of T-cells left. Two of the Americans were in or near Japan. Everyone knows that Japanese stuff is gay, especially anime. Gay beyond belief.
This flu is generally scary for middle aged homosexuals. Not for anyone else.
Are you really this fucking ridiculously dense?
If this coronavirus were as pandemic and widespread as the flu, we'd have hundreds of millions of fatalities. You are like a batshit feminist confusing the equality of outcomes with actual equality. We are only two months into this, and it only technically went pandemic yesterday. You are comparing the total death count today with the final death count of YEARS of the Spanish Flu. Look at the case mortality rate of this coronavirus (10%) combined with the r-naught value of at least 6.0. It's MORE infectious than the flu and is several orders of magnitude more lethal. It's actually much worse than normal flu, and possibly even more severe than the Spanish Influeza virus.
Influenza infects between 10-20% of the human population each year. It's mortality rate is something like 0.1%. The mortality rate of the Spanish Flu strain was about 2.5% before it mutated to something more benign.
This new coronavirus is many times more infectious than influenza and its case mortality rate is sitting at around 10% right now, and we have not yet seen hospitals completely overrun, bringing that mortality rate way up. Virologists predict this virus has the capability to infect up to 60% of the world's population because it is so transmissable. If that happens, even at the Spanish Flu mortality of only 2.5%, you are going to far exceed the death toll of the Spanish Flu virus. Except right now the mortality stands at 10% of the closed cases. Maybe you should look up the global population. Use your phone's calculator to get this number:
P*0.6*0.1, where P is the current global population, 0.6 is for 60% infected, and 0.1 is for 10% mortality of those infected. The result is the ceiling of how many people could die if we don't execute drastic measures (like total lock downs). And that's assuming that we can somehow treat the +20% of people who will depend on intensive care to survive. When Wuhan's hospitals were at capacity, their mortality was hovered around 15% before coming down due to the new hospitals they built. Change that 0.1 to
0.15 to see what happens when ICUs are overwhelmed.
That's not including the complete shut down of the global supply chain we already see right the fuck now. The global economy is about to hit a major recession, at best, but probably much worse.
You should pray to God this thing gets contained, but don't count on it. Your disbelief in what the math is telling us does not constitute a rational argument either.
