729 Black Swan

[Martin Hash]

[Speaker to Animals]

Correct response is to rank by importance threats according to impact, not your estimations of the probability that they occur. You do not really know the probability.

And definitely do not trust in your Soviet-Harvard overlords.

[Martin Hash]

Correct response is to rank by importance threats according to impact

No, because that's just biased guessing. All these "experts" attempt to predict the future.

p.s. We don't believe in experts on this forum anyway.

[Speaker to Animals]

Correct response is to rank by importance threats according to impact

No, because that's just biased guessing. All these "experts" attempt to predict the future.

p.s. We don't believe in experts on this forum anyway.

Disagree.

We can fairly well assess the impact of a large comet crashing into an ocean like the Atlantic, but our ability to predict the probability of that occurring within any reasonable span of time is bogus. We have no idea how many objects are out there that are going to collide with the Earth. There could be one heading this way, set for impact in a few years, and we have no idea; or there is nothing for centuries. The only thing we know is that an impact would be a mass extinction event, possibly including us, so it's probably worth our while to start developing a means to move rocks out there.

[Martin Hash]

We have a lot of circumstantial evidence that aliens visited the Earth, and probably will again in the future, so we should be prepared for intergalactic war. That’s why Trump created the Space Force.

[Martin Hash]

Very credible people, such as Elon Musk, contend that we all live in a simulation, so everyone should learn to code. That’s what we tell fired Lefty journalists.