Breaking: US and Russia to announce Syria cease fire

[Smitty-48]

Poland is the northern flank, on the Suwalki Gap in Belarus.

Thing is, it's unlikely to touch off there, that's a bridge too far for Ivan.

The southern flank is where shit is gonna happen.

The southern flank is where the shit is happening now, Syria is all about Tartus.

On the Black Sea. It's the naval standoffs which come about precipitously.

The Russians have more leverage in the Black Sea. In the Baltic, they are contained.

[Speaker to Animals]

Poland is the northern flank, on the Suwalki Gap in Belarus.

Thing is, it's unlikely to touch off there, that's a bridge too far for Ivan.

The southern flank is where shit is gonna happen.

On the Black Sea. It's the naval standoffs which come about precipitously.

The Russians have more leverage in the Black Sea. In the Baltic, they are contained.

I was just looking at that after I posted. All I see in Sevastopol is a couple of destroyer and some kind of missile cruiser. Do they have naval yards elsewhere in the sea?

They have a monster runway in the airfield just north of the harbor, but I don't see any aircraft parked there. Runway could definitely support long range bombers, no problem.

[Speaker to Animals]

Nevermind. Spotted a squadron of Su-27s.

[Smitty-48]

I was just looking at that after I posted. All I see in Sevastopol is a couple of destroyer and some kind of missile cruiser. Do they have naval yards elsewhere in the sea?

They've got a Slava class cruiser with an aging destroyer and six frigates.

The greater threat is the submarines, six SSK's.

Because of the Montreaux Agreement, NATO cannot deploy into the Black Sea in force.

Turkey controls this, that is why Russia and China are courting Turkey.

So the Black Sea Fleet doesn't need to be that big.

The arms of decision are their missiles, land based as well, and nukes, nuclear cruise missiles in the mix.

[Speaker to Animals]

I was just looking at that after I posted. All I see in Sevastopol is a couple of destroyer and some kind of missile cruiser. Do they have naval yards elsewhere in the sea?

They've got a Slava class cruiser with an aging destroyer and six frigates.

The greater threat is the submarines, six SSK's.

Because of the Montreaux Agreement, NATO cannot deploy into the Black Sea in force.

Turkey controls this, that is why Russia and China are courting Turkey.

So the Black Sea Fleet doesn't need to be that big.

The arms of decision are their missiles, land based as well, and nukes, nuclear cruise missiles in the mix.

Still. By American standards, that's not a serious effort.

[Smitty-48]

Still. By American standards, that's not a serious effort.

The Moskva is heavily armed, more than capable of sinking US Navy ships and submarines.

Moskva has torpedo launching cruise missiles, heavyweight torpedo at cruise missile range.

The torpedo once dropped can sink submarines and surface ships.

One hit from one of those would cut an American Aegis combatant in half.

The Moskva also deploys triple digit SAMs, Anti-Submarine Rockets. and more torpedoes.

Plus it has a twin 130mm gun which can put down a wall of fire against ships and shore targets.

The Frigates are Gregorevich and Gorskov class, state of the art, NATO equivalent.

The SSK's are inhrently dangerous, ultra quiet, and Russian SSK's carry Kalibr cruise missiles.

More than enough to over match what NATO has in the Black Sea.

NATO has to leverage air and missile power from Romania to counter.

[Smitty-48]

It's point blank for all intents and purposes.

The Russians can hit targets in Romania from land based in Crimea.

NATO can hit Russia from land bases in Romania.

The Russians have thermonuclear weapons in situ.

Just a matter of time until NATO moves theirs into Romania.

The Black Sea is the New Trace.

The war can kick off from land on either side, the navies are in a fishbowl.

The Black Sea is not deep, so it's no place for an SSN. Those Russian SSK's are dominant in such tight quarters.

VMF Varshavyanka Class, Improved Kilo II. They can strike with impunity, to include with nuclear cruise missiles.

[Smitty-48]

The VVS Long Range Aviation also has bombers available, Tu-160 is already being deployed in the Black Sea.

121st Guards Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment from 6950th Guards Air Base at Engels, Saratov.



Also Tu-22M3 Backfire.




These are all cruise missile carriers, for conventional anti-shipping/land attack and nuclear.

[Smitty-48]

This is the Moskva.

She's an oldie, but she packs a lot of firepower, NATO has nothing in the Black Sea in her weight class.

[Smitty-48]

This is the Bastion Coastal Defense System.

That's the P-800 Oniks supersonic cruise missile.

Has the range to hit anything on the Black Sea, launched from Crimea. At Mach 2.5

Can also deliver 100 kiloton thermonuclear warhead.

Truck mounted, so they can saturate the shore with them.



This is called Anti-Access Area Denial (A2AD) It's one of the things Ivan is good at.