MHF Democrat Primary Poll

[Hastur]

Are "the networks" behind all polling being done, though?

Don't seriously know. The only ones I see reported on are from FOX, CNN, etc.

[StCapps]

Are "the networks" behind all polling being done, though?

Don't seriously know. The only ones I see reported on are from FOX, CNN, etc.

The answer is no. If you don't know of other polls, it's because you aren't paying attention. There are more polls done by non-major tv networks than polls done by major TV networks. Individual polls can be heavily skewed, but heavily skewing an aggregate is a lot harder, and the skewing that does occur is only off by a few points, so dismissing an aggregate out of hand entirely is just foolish.

Polls are totally meaningless is a myth, take them with a grain of salt, sure, but don't ignore them entirely.

[BjornP]

Are "the networks" behind all polling being done, though?

Don't seriously know. The only ones I see reported on are from FOX, CNN, etc.

Ah, during the last election, people were linking to realclearpolitics, I think it was. They showed polls from several sources, not sureif all were mainstream news sites.

I suspect that at least in some cases, news sites get a data point like a poll, and just write their own spin on it. So if possible it's better to get polling data straight from the company doing it.

[StCapps]

During last election when people act like polls meant nothing because of Trump's success against Hillary despite trailing in most polls, the polls still predicted the distinct possibility of a Trump upset, and they were only off by the margin of error. So even these supposedly rigged polls ain't rigged by a large enough margin to make them completely useless and should be entirely ignored.

[Hastur]

I think there is a huge difference in polling for the primaries vs the general. Much harder to predict the former. There is also a dynamic involved in the process with candidates dropping out and new ones joining so the polls can not be checked vs reality and the methods thereby improved. A lot of room for shenanigans that never will be called out on.

[StCapps]

I think there is a huge difference in polling for the primaries vs the general. Much harder to predict the former. There is also a dynamic involved in the process with candidates dropping out and new ones joining so the polls can not be checked vs reality and the methods thereby improved. A lot of room for shenanigans that never will be called out on.

Indeed there is a big difference between primary polling and general polling. For instance primary polling showed Trump to be a frontrunner fairly early on and predicted his primary success long before Iowa or New Hampshire voted, while general election polling showed Trump trailing near or within the margin of error of Clinton until the very end.

2016 was actually a case of the general being harder to predict than the primaries for pollsters, though usually it's the other way around.

Lots of room for shenanigans to go on, but the level of shenanigans actually going on is being severely overblown by folks who don't understand polls, and think that being off by an average of 3 percentage points in a Presidential election somehow means all polls are completely worthless now.

[Fife]

[pineapplemike]

what an epic fail for the democrats that tulsi can't even get 5% support

[StCapps]

what an epic fail for the democrats that tulsi can't even get 5% support

She's at 3% in the Economist/YouGov poll, and only three polls have been taken in August, but yeah thought she'd get a bigger bump than I'm seeing thus far. I guess the Anti-War Left is an even smaller faction of the Democrats than I thought, and I didn't think they were more than a small fringe minority to begin with.

I find it funny that some folks on this forum somehow think that Democrat primary voters somehow share their foreign policy views, talk about wishful thinking, that's straight delusional. They should know better, don't project the policy views of political misfits on Democrat primary voters, that should be fairly obvious at this point.

[BjornP]

The indifference to foreign policy does seem to be standard among many of those American progressive sites like Slate and Salon. Usually stories there are progressive commentaries on domestic issues.