MHF - Hockey Thread

[Smitty-48]

The CHabs definitely need Poehling to pan out.

Even got the shootout winner, very nice.

Hits Freddie Toskala with the four.

Typical Mike Babock Country Club.

[StCapps]

MacKinnon finishes the season one point shy of 100, oh well.

[StCapps]

Oh shit, draft lottery on Tuesday, get hype. Hopefully the Hockey Gods want to smite the Sens real bad for that Duchene trade, because I sure want that.

[Zlaxer]

Maintaining my earlier call - Tampa for the win.

[Smitty-48]

Maintaining my earlier call - Tampa for the win.

Same as last year.

Tampa v. Washington.

Winner takes all.

[StCapps]

Maintaining my earlier call - Tampa for the win.

Same as last year.

Tampa v. Washington.

Winner takes all.

Probably. The balance of power has definitely shifted to the East, after moving in that direction for a few years prior, now they are by far the better conference. Tampa and Washington are clearly the two best teams in the East, if the hockey gods don't turn on them, I don't see how it doesn't play out that way.

[Smitty-48]

Maintaining my earlier call - Tampa for the win.

Same as last year.

Tampa v. Washington.

Winner takes all.

Probably. The balance of power has definitely shifted to the East, after moving in that direction for a few years prior, now they are by far the better conference. Tampa and Washington are clearly the two best teams in the East, if the hockey gods don't turn on them, I don't see how it doesn't play out that way.

I still think the West is the stronger conference, in that there are more teams in the West who I think have a legitimate shot at winning a cup, the East has fewer legit contenders, Washington and Tampa just happen to be the most complete contenders. They've got the experience and they are loaded up without any significant holes in their line ups.

It's also like you say; "stylistic"

I think the big heavy teams still have an advantage when the corrupt and incompetent NHL Basketball Refs change the way they call games in the playoffs. Tampa gets a lot of easy points in the regular season beating up on soft teams like the Leafs, but then when they get to the playoffs, they seem to fold like the Leafs, in the face of big heavy teams like Washington.

The Caps have the skill, they've got the firepower, but then they've got the beef on top.

Tampa does appear to be on a mission this year, but I think the one thing which could derail them is a big heavy team like Washington or Vegas or the Jets laying a physical pounding on them.

I think the Tampa model can win, but they have to avoid getting worn down. Which starts with dispatching Columbus quickly, they don't want to get into a seven game slugfest with the Jackets right out of the gate. Columbus is a dangerous opponent, they're big, they're heavy, they're mean, and they got a goalie.

Tamps needs to snuff Columbus before Columbus can get on a roll with a hot Bobro.

The only path out of the division I can see for the Loafs, is obviously don't choke against Boston again, but then after that, they would need to catch a break with a Tampa team beat up from a seven game war against a desperate Blue Jackets.

The main thing is to target Stamkos. He's not soft but he is brittle, just keep pounding on him, if the Bolts lose Stammer they are chopped down to size. Stamkos is Tampa's Ovechkin, he makes their power play go and they rely on their power play, if you can't take Stammer and his one timer from the left side out of the mix, Tampa is a lot less scary.

I actually think the Leafs have a deeper top nine than Tampa. Tampa is just more experienced, and they have Hedman. Hedman is the main difference between the Leafs and the Bolts. I think Rielly has proven this year that he is a Norris caliber defenseman, but Mo is more like Erik Karlsson, Hedman is more complete, Rielly is nowhere near as good in his own end as Hedman is.

The playoffs essentially come down to your number one D-man, because he will play half the game every night, Hedman can carry Stralman, but Rielly can't carry Hainsey, that's basically the Leafs Achilles Heel in a nutshell. I think the Leafs core seven is good enough to win it all if they got on a roll, but I don't see them keeping a roll going, when they are so reliant on the likes of Hainsey and Zaitsev.

No matter what the Leafs do, they won't overcome the legit contenders as currently configured, the Babock-Hainsey-Zaitsev axis will bring them down every time.

Neither Rielly nor Gardiner are anywhere near good enough down low in their own end, to carry the flailing of Hainsey and Zaitsev the way Hedman and McDonagh carry Stralman and Girardi.

Stralman is mediocre, Girardi actually sucks, but paired with Hedman and McDonagh, you can get away with it.

The Leafs just don't have a big dog on the back end who can break the cycle and clear the crease, whereas Tampa has two of them.

Everything hinges on Hedman and McDonagh. If they stay healthy and play well, Tampa is unstoppable.

If those two are lights out, they will keep the flies off Vasilevskiy, if you keep the flies off Vasilelvskiy, it's a walkover.

If nobody can get to Vasilevskiy, if nobody rattles his cage, Tampa will waltz to the cup.

[StCapps]

The East has caught up in legit contenders, and the legit contenders they do have are much better than the contenders in the West. So advantage East, even with heavy hockey getting a boost come playoff time.

I mean Tampa, Washington and Pittsburgh have a better chance than any team in the West of winning the cup, the West has really started to fall off this year. The big thing that could save the West is the Eastern contenders wearing each other down before they get to the final, that and the hockey gods of course.

The West is deeper, but that depth didn't make the playoffs, and at the top, the East keeps getting better and better. I mean it took 98 points for Columbus to clinch a spot in the East, the Avs clinched with 90 points, that shows the disparity right there. Six teams in the east with more than 100 points, and only three teams in the West, that's double.

[Smitty-48]

Two days to the playoffs and I'm not even remotely excited.

I just have a morbid fascination to see how the Mike Babcock Country Club is going to lose.

Will they flip a switch, play well, but ultimately lose to Tampa?

Will they completely embarrass themselves and get rinsed by Boston?

Those are the margins, so I don't see anything to get too worked up about.

On the one hand I like the Leafs season to go on as long as possible.

On the other hand I think a total disaster would be more useful in terms of forcing management to face reality.

Bottom line, the Leafs have created a window for themselves with Matthews and Tavares.

It was a five to six year window, but one of those years is already burned.

They don't just need one top four right defenseman, they need two of them.

They don't have it coming in the pipeline, not within the window.

They are going to have to make at least one if not two trades, and not minor ones, they will have to give guys up.

Kapanen, Johnsson, are both gonna have to go, they have to turn those two into two defensemen somehow.

Kadri is moveable too.

Right now they have a third scoring line, but that's not doing anything for them.

It doesn't get enough icetime to make a difference offensively, it doesn't do a good job of checking.

If you're loaded up with two super scoring lines, a third scoring line which can't check, is useless.

Neither Sandin nor Liljegren is going to be panning out before the window closes.

By the time those two are ready, Tavares will have aged out.

Once you sign Tavares, you have to go for it, you have to expend the assets to win now.

Dubas is going to have to confront this, sooner or later.

This is why there's tension with Babcock.

Babcock knows.

You can't waste the next three years waiting for Rasmus Sandin, when those are the peak Tavares years.

Your top prospect is more like five to six years away from being ready. Tavares will be done by then.

Babock is waiting for somebody to make the major moves needed to upgrade the defense.

This year is a write off. Jake Muzzin was not nearly enough.

Every year Dubas waits to make the hard choices, is another wasted year of the window.

[Smitty-48]

I think this is the reason the team has quit.

That's what they did.

The players quit on this season awhile back.

At the trade deadline.

They know they are not winning the cup with this defense.

By failing to make the big move to upgrade it, Dubas has sent the team the message that this year is a write off.