The Mess

[heydaralon]

Right now Putin is preparing to fight a limited theater thermonuclear war.

The objective end state is to stave off an overthrow while forcing NATO to sue for peace.

So for example they are building a lot of NATO style SSKs

Because they are cheap and plentiful.

But they can still launch cruise missiles.

They don't need long range deep diving nuclear powered submarines, to fight a theater war.

What do you mean by this? The NATO nuclear powers aren't going to give up their H-bombs. If everyone has nukes, thats always an option even if we did come to some kind of agreement. What is his ultimate endgame? To take back some baltic areas and Poland? To get NATO out of his backyard? What does Putin want most?

The game is to provoke NATO into a war, in order to incite the Russians to rally around the Kremlin.

When Putin comes under pressure, he escalates to make America into a menace at the gates.

The ultimate end game is to live to a ripe old age and die in his sleep, even if Ukraine is a nuclear wasteland.

If the West was gonna deploy nukes, why would they stop at Ukraine? In that situation, it seems logical that we'd nuke Moscow first. I've never understood this nuclear gamesmanship. I like your counterforce ideas, but to me, it seems like a big gamble for a despot with an inferior hand like Putin to call.

[Smitty-48]

Even in the wake of Putin, you get rid of him somehow, that doesn't mean George Clooney replaces him.

Entirely plausible that he could be overthrown by Bolsheviks, or Nazis, or a fusion of both in one.

[Smitty-48]

What do you mean by this? The NATO nuclear powers aren't going to give up their H-bombs. If everyone has nukes, thats always an option even if we did come to some kind of agreement. What is his ultimate endgame? To take back some baltic areas and Poland? To get NATO out of his backyard? What does Putin want most?

The game is to provoke NATO into a war, in order to incite the Russians to rally around the Kremlin.

When Putin comes under pressure, he escalates to make America into a menace at the gates.

The ultimate end game is to live to a ripe old age and die in his sleep, even if Ukraine is a nuclear wasteland.

If the West was gonna deploy nukes, why would they stop at Ukraine? In that situation, it seems logical that we'd nuke Moscow first. I've never understood this nuclear gamesmanship. I like your counterforce ideas, but to me, it seems like a big gamble for a despot with an inferior hand like Putin to call.

The West doesn't have a Supercounterforce. The West will not nuke, because that would incite Dead Hand.

Putin would nuke, theater thermonuclear below the strategic level, the West would chicken out and sue for peace.

[heydaralon]

Do you think that eventually Putin is going to try something the military/oligarghs deem as self-destructive for Russia and just take him out?

[Smitty-48]

Do you think that eventually Putin is going to try something the military/oligarghs deem as self-destructive for Russia and just take him out?

No. Putin is king of the oligarchs, he has amassed a personal fortune which makes him the richest of them all.

Like Hitler and his numbered bank accounts in Switzerland.

The Olligarchs are not in charge, the Siloviki are another ruling class, the Security Men. The KGB.

[Smitty-48]

The Military Security Arm staged a Coup de Tat, then they made themselves into Dukes.

[heydaralon]

Do you think that eventually Putin is going to try something the military/oligarghs deem as self-destructive for Russia and just take him out?

No. Putin is king of the oligarchs, he has amassed a personal fortune which makes him the richest of them all.

Like Hitler and his numbered bank accounts in Switzerland.

The Olligarchs are not in charge, the Siloviki are another ruling class, the Security Men. The KGB.

Do the highest ranking members of the Russian Mafia take marching orders from Putin? I know that many Russian oligarghs are members, and that they made a pretty penny after the Cold War. Does Putin have an adverserial relationship with the organization?

[Smitty-48]

The Mafiya, otherwise known as the Thieves by Law, are a rogue power structure.

They are not political tho.

The lawlessness of the Siloviki favors the Mafiya.

The Mafiya despised the Communists, but Putin doesn't bother them.

[heydaralon]

The Mafiya, otherwise known as the Thieves by Law, are a rogue power structure.

They are not political tho.

The lawlessness of the Siloviki favors the Mafiya.

The Mafiya despised the Communists, but Putin doesn't bother them.

Why not? Don't they represent a threat to his power? Or do they have some kind of symbiotic relationship?

[Smitty-48]

The Mafiya, otherwise known as the Thieves by Law, are a rogue power structure.

They are not political tho.

The lawlessness of the Siloviki favors the Mafiya.

The Mafiya despised the Communists, but Putin doesn't bother them.

Why not? Don't they represent a threat to his power? Or do they have some kind of symbiotic relationship?

They are superstitious, the Mafiya is like a Russian Orthodox splinter religion.

You see the tattoos? Those are religious runes.

Putin is with the Church, the Church is with Putin because they fear the Communists

The Mafiya is with the Church and whomever defends it, and against the Communists therein.

Putin is Czar for all intents and purposes.