2020 election

[StCapps]

If Biden doesn't gaffe his way to early exit before Iowa and New Hampshire, Beto doesn't stand a chance at winning the Democrat primary. Hell even if Biden does torpedo himself, Sanders will probably steal enough of Biden's support that Beto still doesn't stand a chance.

Have to credit Shapiro here but he has Biden on point.

Biden's best day will be the day he announces and it will be downhill from there. He is leading polls based on one primary thing, name recognition. If and when he gets in he is going to take attacks from all sides, same with Sanders. As it stands right now, I am getting a whiff of '04.

If it's like 2004, Biden is the most Kerry-like candidate in the field. Shapiro underestimates Biden because there are no viable centrists to steal his vote, and he just assumes he's too gaffe prone to win, despite the weakness of his opposition, wishful thinking style.

The center left folks will have to side with a far-left candidate like Sanders, for Biden to lose. Shapiro might be right that Sanders is the most likely to win, because he can steal enough of Biden's voters, but if it's 2004 all over again, Sanders isn't going to take it, but if it's 1972 all over again, then Sanders or Harris will win.

[clubgop]

If Biden doesn't gaffe his way to early exit before Iowa and New Hampshire, Beto doesn't stand a chance at winning the Democrat primary. Hell even if Biden does torpedo himself, Sanders will probably steal enough of Biden's support that Beto still doesn't stand a chance.

Have to credit Shapiro here but he has Biden on point.

Biden's best day will be the day he announces and it will be downhill from there. He is leading polls based on one primary thing, name recognition. If and when he gets in he is going to take attacks from all sides, same with Sanders. As it stands right now, I am getting a whiff of '04.

If it's like 2004, Biden is the most Kerry like candidate in the field. Shapiro underestimates Biden, and while he might be right that Sanders is the most likely to win, if it's 2004 all over again, Sanders isn't going to take it.

I said a whiff, not fully. Also Kerry didn't have Biden's name recognition nor was he leading in national polls. He snuck in there. Dean and Gephardt were tearing each other to shreds and were taking fire from everyone else. Kerry was able to emerge from the wreckage. He was no one's first choice but everyone's second choice. Biden and Sanders are going to have hit each other and take incoming, who benefits from that?

Beto- probably not
Harris- likely
Booker- strong maybe
Warren- longshot

[StCapps]

Have to credit Shapiro here but he has Biden on point.

Biden's best day will be the day he announces and it will be downhill from there. He is leading polls based on one primary thing, name recognition. If and when he gets in he is going to take attacks from all sides, same with Sanders. As it stands right now, I am getting a whiff of '04.

If it's like 2004, Biden is the most Kerry like candidate in the field. Shapiro underestimates Biden, and while he might be right that Sanders is the most likely to win, if it's 2004 all over again, Sanders isn't going to take it.

I said a whiff, not fully. Also Kerry didn't have Biden's name recognition nor was he leading in national polls. He snuck in there. Dean and Gephardt were tearing each other to shreds and were taking fire from everyone else. Kerry was able to emerge from the wreckage. He was no one's first choice but everyone's second choice. Biden and Sanders are going to have hit each other and take incoming, who benefits from that?

Beto- probably not
Harris- likely
Booker- strong maybe
Warren- longshot

I don't see anyone benefiting more than Sanders from Biden going down in flames. Sanders is the second-choice of far more Biden voters than Harris, Booker, Warren or Beto.

Also Sanders gains a lot more from Harris, Booker, Beto and/or Warren going down than Biden would, he's running in the far left lane after all, so there is plenty of incentive for him to not focus strictly on attacking Biden. Hell this is a guy who refused to attack Hillary on the emails, despite the fact that it would have been a great benefit to him to do so. What makes you think he'll go after Biden with any ferocity? History says he uses kid gloves on the centrist lane candidates. Everyone else is going to attack Biden, Sanders can play the high ground card and just let them do it for him.

The three candidates I see going after Biden the hardest are O'Rourke, Warren and Gabbard as they are trying to run in centrist lane, hoping Biden torpedoes himself so they can benefit, but the problem for them is Bernie will likely benefit more than them. Bernie has to worry more about Harris splitting the far-left vote than he has to worry about Biden.

Biden wins if the far-left is split, Sanders or Harris win if the far-left unites against the centrist or Biden torpedoes himself via gaffe and the centrist pre-dominant second choice is one of them. Biden bringing down Sanders would increase the chances that enough of the far-left unites behind Harris, he wants as many viable far-lefties splitting the vote as possible, so I also don't think that Biden will go after Sanders as hard as you think he will either.

Biden is being seriously under-estimated by Shapiro, considering how clogged the far-left lane is this primary season. I think Shapiro is right about Bernie being under-estimated and being more likely than Harris to consolidate enough of the far-left vote to win in early primary states, while also being more likely to win the centrist vote if Biden goes down. I also think Shapiro is right that Kamala's chances of winning have been seriously overblown, but she's still the third most likely winner.

At this point, I don't think it's wide-open at all, this primary season is a near coinflip between 2012 and 1972, Biden wins very similar to the way Romney won, or Sanders/Harris unites the far-left like McGovern.

As of now, I'd make the odds - Biden 40%, Bernie 35%, Harris 15% and the rest of the field 10%.

[Hastur]

Why is Biden even a candidate? What is the statute of limitations for political plagiarism?

Joe Biden, 1987: During the 1988 Presidential election, the then-presidential candidate was accused of mimicking a speech that British Labour Party Neil Kinnock delivered just four months prior.

Kinnock’s speech included the following lines:

Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? [Pointing to his wife in the audience:] Why is Glenys the first woman in her family in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? Was it because all our predecessors were thick?

While Biden said:

I started thinking as I was coming over here, why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go to a university? [Pointing to his wife in the audience:] Why is it that my wife who is sitting out there in the audience is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright? Is it because I’m the first Biden in a thousand generations to get a college and a graduate degree that I was smarter than the rest?

The vice president was forced to withdraw from the presidential race after Maureen Dowd of the New York Times exposed his plagiarized speech. Allegations followed that Biden lifted parts of other speeches from Hubert Humphrey, Robert Kennedy, and JFK.

[StCapps]

Why is Biden even a candidate? What is the statute of limitations for political plagiarism?

Joe Biden, 1987: During the 1988 Presidential election, the then-presidential candidate was accused of mimicking a speech that British Labour Party Neil Kinnock delivered just four months prior.

Kinnock’s speech included the following lines:

Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? [Pointing to his wife in the audience:] Why is Glenys the first woman in her family in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? Was it because all our predecessors were thick?

While Biden said:

I started thinking as I was coming over here, why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go to a university? [Pointing to his wife in the audience:] Why is it that my wife who is sitting out there in the audience is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright? Is it because I’m the first Biden in a thousand generations to get a college and a graduate degree that I was smarter than the rest?

The vice president was forced to withdraw from the presidential race after Maureen Dowd of the New York Times exposed his plagiarized speech. Allegations followed that Biden lifted parts of other speeches from Hubert Humphrey, Robert Kennedy, and JFK.

Biden is a candidate because the Democrats have moved so far to the left, that he's the only viable center left candidate in the race. Don't have to be Usain Bolt to outrun political nobodies and socialists.

[Hastur]

Why is Biden even a candidate? What is the statute of limitations for political plagiarism?

Joe Biden, 1987: During the 1988 Presidential election, the then-presidential candidate was accused of mimicking a speech that British Labour Party Neil Kinnock delivered just four months prior.

Kinnock’s speech included the following lines:

Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? [Pointing to his wife in the audience:] Why is Glenys the first woman in her family in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? Was it because all our predecessors were thick?

While Biden said:

I started thinking as I was coming over here, why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go to a university? [Pointing to his wife in the audience:] Why is it that my wife who is sitting out there in the audience is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright? Is it because I’m the first Biden in a thousand generations to get a college and a graduate degree that I was smarter than the rest?

The vice president was forced to withdraw from the presidential race after Maureen Dowd of the New York Times exposed his plagiarized speech. Allegations followed that Biden lifted parts of other speeches from Hubert Humphrey, Robert Kennedy, and JFK.

Biden is a candidate because the Democrats have moved so far to the left, that he's the only viable center left candidate in the race. Don't have to be Usain Bolt to outrun political nobodies and socialists.

He's a suicide candidate. They can't be serious. What kind of reality do they live in?

[StCapps]

Why is Biden even a candidate? What is the statute of limitations for political plagiarism?

Biden is a candidate because the Democrats have moved so far to the left, that he's the only viable center left candidate in the race. Don't have to be Usain Bolt to outrun political nobodies and socialists.

He's a suicide candidate. They can't be serious. What kind of reality do they live in?

A reality where all the candidates are suicide candidates, who don't have a hope in hell of beating Trump.
/shrugs

Biden would actually do better against Trump than any other nominee, that's how weak the field is. Biden is simply the beneficiary of the Democrats having no bench.

[clubgop]

If it's like 2004, Biden is the most Kerry like candidate in the field. Shapiro underestimates Biden, and while he might be right that Sanders is the most likely to win, if it's 2004 all over again, Sanders isn't going to take it.

I said a whiff, not fully. Also Kerry didn't have Biden's name recognition nor was he leading in national polls. He snuck in there. Dean and Gephardt were tearing each other to shreds and were taking fire from everyone else. Kerry was able to emerge from the wreckage. He was no one's first choice but everyone's second choice. Biden and Sanders are going to have hit each other and take incoming, who benefits from that?

Beto- probably not
Harris- likely
Booker- strong maybe
Warren- longshot

I don't see anyone benefiting more than Sanders from Biden going down in flames. Sanders is the second-choice of far more Biden voters than Harris, Booker, Warren or Beto.

Also Sanders gains a lot more from Harris, Booker, Beto and/or Warren going down than Biden would, he's running in the far left lane after all, so there is plenty of incentive for him to not focus strictly on attacking Biden. Hell this is a guy who refused to attack Hillary on the emails, despite the fact that it would have been a great benefit to him to do so. What makes you think he'll go after Biden with any ferocity? History says he uses kid gloves on the centrist lane candidates. Everyone else is going to attack Biden, Sanders can play the high ground card and just let them do it for him.

The three candidates I see going after Biden the hardest are O'Rourke, Warren and Gabbard as they are trying to run in centrist lane, hoping Biden torpedoes himself so they can benefit, but the problem for them is Bernie will likely benefit more than them. Bernie has to worry more about Harris splitting the far-left vote than he has to worry about Biden.

Biden wins if the far-left is split, Sanders or Harris win if the far-left unites against the centrist or Biden torpedoes himself via gaffe and the centrist pre-dominant second choice is one of them. Biden bringing down Sanders would increase the chances that enough of the far-left unites behind Harris, he wants as many viable far-lefties splitting the vote as possible, so I also don't think that Biden will go after Sanders as hard as you think he will either.

Biden is being seriously under-estimated by Shapiro, considering how clogged the far-left lane is this primary season. I think Shapiro is right about Bernie being under-estimated and being more likely than Harris to consolidate enough of the far-left vote to win in early primary states, while also being more likely to win the centrist vote if Biden goes down. I also think Shapiro is right that Kamala's chances of winning have been seriously overblown, but she's still the third most likely winner.

At this point, I don't think it's wide-open at all, this primary season is a near coinflip between 2012 and 1972, Biden wins very similar to the way Romney won, or Sanders/Harris unites the far-left like McGovern.

As of now, I'd make the odds - Biden 40%, Bernie 35%, Harris 15% and the rest of the field 10%.

It's all about looking clean and taking the fewest hits. If the national polls are to be followed both Biden and Sanders got to get hit and have to hit each other. Think about the politics, think about this party, think about these primary voters. Two old white dinosaurs attacking each other while a younger photogenic black woman emerges triumphant. It's so virtual signaling, self indulgent, condescending nonsense, Aaron Sorkin could have written it. It is a clickbait primary for a Buzzfeed party.

[Speaker to Animals]

I think Harris is going to implode somehow. Most likely more of her fucking to get ahead will catch up with her. Just a feeling, but dem primary I think is not going to happen as planned.

[PartyOf5]

In a world (largely created by the left) of #metoo and cultural appropriation, their favorite candidates include an old white guy know to be "hndsy" with women, a lady who slept her way into positions of power, and another lady who used a claim of Native American heritage to get ahead.

I still have a feeling that the "not Trump" vote will win in 2020 and one of these abominations will become the next POTUS.