The Intellectual Dark Web

User avatar
TheReal_ND
Posts: 26030
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:23 pm

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by TheReal_ND » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:18 pm

DBTrek wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:15 pm
So Yang is going to dismantle all of the current, deeply entrenched, welfare systems AND implement a new UBI funded by productivity this country doesn't have?

... because this current guy couldn't get $5.8billion for a wall.

That's what's striking you as a likely course of events?
Anything is possible once we get our bags.

User avatar
DBTrek
Posts: 12241
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:04 pm

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by DBTrek » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:18 pm

Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:17 pm
Work is going to go away, there is literally going to be no work at all, it's not that far away.
I don't think so.
... and I work in an AI field.

Some work is going to go away.
Some new work is going to be found.
"Hey varmints, don't mess with a guy that's riding a buffalo"

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by Smitty-48 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:19 pm

There's not even going to be white collar work, the robots will do those jobs as well.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
Fife
Posts: 15157
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 9:47 am

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by Fife » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:19 pm

TheReal_ND wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:13 pm
Whatever inflation may happen would virtually destroy the buying potential of current gibs recipients as their gibs would not layer on top of UBI in the way Yang invisions UBI to work.
Exactly. If Little Ceasar's or Pepsi 2-liters had an upper bound of $10, whites would be in trouble.

Buy YUM.

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by Smitty-48 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:21 pm

DBTrek wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:18 pm
Some new work is going to be found.
Not enough, not nearly enough, it will be cottage industry when compared to industrialization.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
TheReal_ND
Posts: 26030
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:23 pm

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by TheReal_ND » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:21 pm

Fife wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:19 pm
TheReal_ND wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:13 pm
Whatever inflation may happen would virtually destroy the buying potential of current gibs recipients as their gibs would not layer on top of UBI in the way Yang invisions UBI to work.
Exactly. If Little Ceasar's or Pepsi 2-liters had an upper bound of $10, whites would be in trouble.

Buy YUM.
There's going to be plenty of money left over once we get our yangbux

User avatar
Speaker to Animals
Posts: 38685
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:59 pm

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by Speaker to Animals » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:22 pm

DBTrek wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:18 pm
Smitty-48 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:17 pm
Work is going to go away, there is literally going to be no work at all, it's not that far away.
I don't think so.
... and I work in an AI field.

Some work is going to go away.
Some new work is going to be found.
My graduate education was in AI.

Yes, we are about to automate the fuck out of this economy, including the developing of AI itself. LOL Hell, one of the things I was kind of known for in software engineering jobs was writing code that writes code for us (automating development itself).

It's just not general intelligence. There won't be a HAL 9000, but most retail, shipping, and even a lot of clerical/legal work will be automated within about twenty years or so. At this point, it's just musical chairs.

We really do need to figure out a solution to the high productivity gains and declining jobs. Step one, in my opinion, is to send all the immigrants back home. We really, really don't need them. More accurately, them being here is very dangerous in an environment where everybody is scrambling for jobs where jobs are your means to feed yourselves.

The problem here is that we can all pretty damned well see the two alternative future economies (welfare state serfdom and a post-scarcity society in which the means of automation are freely distributed), but we have no idea what to do in the interim. There are no good transitional systems like mercantilism was between manorialism and capitalism.

Smitty-48
Posts: 36399
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 3:22 am

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by Smitty-48 » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:25 pm

The Chinese and Russians won't have enough work neither, so war will be the solution, Spartan UBI is the most likely outcome of work going away.
Nec Aspera Terrent

User avatar
DBTrek
Posts: 12241
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:04 pm

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by DBTrek » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:25 pm

AI isn't good at everything, man.
General AI doesn't even exist.
Current AI is good at predictions involving regression and classification tasks . . . which while powerful, is not all-encompassing.

Plus, we control the robots, not the other way around.

Then there's economic considerations . . . is it cheaper to hire a human to rake your yard, or to develop, engineer, and mass produce highly sophisticated robots . .. to rake yards? Pedro still gonna be way cheaper.

/shrug
"Hey varmints, don't mess with a guy that's riding a buffalo"

User avatar
Speaker to Animals
Posts: 38685
Joined: Wed Nov 30, 2016 5:59 pm

Re: The Intellectual Dark Web

Post by Speaker to Animals » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:26 pm

I have thought of lots of ways to automate quite a lot of industries too. Especially the ones populated by the assholes who think they are above everybody else. Lawyers, especially, would get decimated (and probably will within twenty years). You could even automate "journalism" at this point, and get better edited pieces too.

The shit we can't automate easily involves human physical labor in complex tasks like you see in trades. Those are safe for a while yet.