THE ERA OF TRUMP

[SuburbanFarmer]

Here's the actual wording of the study that CNN, the New York Times and the Washington Post are using to "fact check" Trump.

Results from the preferred statistical model,
shown below, estimate that excess mortality due to Hurricane María using the displacement scenario is estimated at 1,271 excess deaths in September and October (95% CI: 1,154-1,383), 2,098 excess deaths from September to December (95% CI: 1,872-2,315), and, 2,975 (95% CI: 2,658-3,290) excess deaths for the total study period of September 2017 through February 2018

ITS A FUCKING MATHEMATICAL GUESS, using selected statistical model.

With a confidence of 95%. That is not a guess dude.

We have a bunch more people dying in a given area than normal, and we’re estimating how much of that is an anomaly caused by the hurricane.

Vs an idiot with a global twitter account.

[C-Mag]

Bullshit
Actual bodies are real.

A week ago there 'experts' used computer modelling to tell us that Florence would be a Cat 5 Hurricane, they fucking dropped it to Cat 2 as soon as it reached the shore. They fuck this shit up all the time. These are estimates, they are best guesses.


I would also note that they used a 'selected model'. WTF is that ?
Why aren't they using an average of a wide number of models.
You can make a model to attribute the results you want easily, make the unrelated cause and affect.

Their using the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon to show Trump responsible for a big body count.

[The Conservative]

LOL possibly the funniest headline I've seen out of the backwards-talking Trump administration-covering press. True and accurate and misleading and hilariously meme-able all at the same time

Every time I think he’s hit bottom...

Does that help you forget about the Fake News of 3000 magically dead bodies that don't exist ?

Oh they will exist, in the next election cycle as voters.

[Ph64]

Every time I think he’s hit bottom...

Does that help you forget about the Fake News of 3000 magically dead bodies that don't exist ?

Oh they will exist, in the next election cycle as voters.

You're just a damn lifeist! What is it that makes you bigoted against the dead? Those poor dead victims have a right to their vote too y'know! We must bring an end to bigotry against the deceased!

[The Conservative]

Does that help you forget about the Fake News of 3000 magically dead bodies that don't exist ?

Oh they will exist, in the next election cycle as voters.

You're just a damn lifeist! What is it that makes you bigoted against the dead? Those poor dead victims have a right to their vote too y'know! We must bring an end to bigotry against the deceased!

Then I demand every fetus aborted 18 years ago to vote Republican

[SuburbanFarmer]

Bullshit
Actual bodies are real.

A week ago there 'experts' used computer modelling to tell us that Florence would be a Cat 5 Hurricane, they fucking dropped it to Cat 2 as soon as it reached the shore. They fuck this shit up all the time. These are estimates, they are best guesses.


I would also note that they used a 'selected model'. WTF is that ?
Why aren't they using an average of a wide number of models.
You can make a model to attribute the results you want easily, make the unrelated cause and affect.

Their using the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon to show Trump responsible for a big body count.

It’s hard to determine because you can’t say for a fact that X people died because of the hurricane, when people are still dying of regular causes.

There was a spike in mortality in PR after the hurricane. You have to select a statistical model, based on factors that are likely to reflect what you’re looking for.

The fact is, FEMA and the governor of PR got caught hoarding and fucking with the supplies, and they were out of power for months. That’s not in dispute.

Now since we apparently can’t get any actual reporting on the situation, we’re left with statistical analysis of the body count.

[Speaker to Animals]

Show me the data.

Seriously. I want to see the actual death certificate counts before, during, and after the storm.

It is certainly possible that many people died, but I am not going to believe the PR democratic party government or the MSM based on bullshit

Show me the data, Jerry.

[Speaker to Animals]

I have no trouble believing that 3000 Puerto Ricans died during that week. Neither would I be surprised to find out 3000 Puerto Ricans died this week or next week or the week after that.

Just counting the raw death certificates is the most dishonest, retarded hack move possible. I want to see how many additional death certificates were issued from what the average death rate would naturally produce over the same period.

[C-Mag]

It’s hard to determine because you can’t say for a fact that X people died because of the hurricane, when people are still dying of regular causes.

Well, Judicial Watch is slapping with a FOIA on all the documents on how the PR Government went from double digit bodies to OMG 3,000 died.

Which I think is great. Let's see how they got there. I think we'll find it highly partisan.

My personal experience working with large numbers of Puerto Ricans leads me to believe most of their problems are self inflicted. PR is little more than a 3rd world country. I've seen other people in similar situations do much better for themselves.

[Speaker to Animals]

High-balling it with a death total of 3,000 on an island of 3.337 million people gives you .09% of the population dead in the course of a week.

It's early, so I might be wrong, but that gives you a death rate of 3.003 per 1000 people in a week.

The official death rate for PR is 8.1 per 1000, annually.

8.1 * 3337 = 27029.7, rounding up to 27,030 deaths per year total. 27030/52=519 deaths per week on average.

So if the total count is 3,000, then you can sort of assume about 2,500 of those arguably happened directly or indirectly as a consequence of the storm.

But I need to see the data first.

I also need to see the range of dates for when the death certificates are counted.

And, no, I do not trust the fake media's word. I need to see the data first.