UK election

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StCapps
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Re: UK election

Post by StCapps » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:33 am

Montegriffo wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:31 am
Hastur wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:45 am

Yup. Now they are rallying to the flags. Lib Dems have clearly grown on Labour's expense. Now some are turning back. We will see if it will be enough.

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Well if those figures could translate directly to seats in Parliament (which they can't) then the Tories still don't have a majority.
If you split it along Leave/Remain lines then Remain has a small majority.
The thing is, pro-Brexit voters in the North of England are traditional Labour voters so they have no place to go but the Brexit Party. They will never vote Tory. So the BP is drawing from Tories disappointed at the slow movement of Brexit and Labour leavers who can't bring themselves to vote Tory.
Pro-Remain Tories, likewise, have no place to go but the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems are drawing from both parties based on their clear anti-Brexit policies and distaste for both Corbyn and Boris.
The Lib Dems are drawing a helluva lot more from Labour than they are from the Tories, dude who can't read polls. When Labour gains, the Lib Dems lose the same amount of support, When the Lib Dems gain, Labour loses the same amount of support, they are not stealing evenly from both parties, it's as plain as day.
*yip*

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Montegriffo
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Re: UK election

Post by Montegriffo » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:37 am

StCapps wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:33 am
Montegriffo wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:31 am
Hastur wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:45 am

Yup. Now they are rallying to the flags. Lib Dems have clearly grown on Labour's expense. Now some are turning back. We will see if it will be enough.

Image
Well if those figures could translate directly to seats in Parliament (which they can't) then the Tories still don't have a majority.
If you split it along Leave/Remain lines then Remain has a small majority.
The thing is, pro-Brexit voters in the North of England are traditional Labour voters so they have no place to go but the Brexit Party. They will never vote Tory. So the BP is drawing from Tories disappointed at the slow movement of Brexit and Labour leavers who can't bring themselves to vote Tory.
Pro-Remain Tories, likewise, have no place to go but the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems are drawing from both parties based on their clear anti-Brexit policies and distaste for both Corbyn and Boris.
The Lib Dems are drawing a helluva lot more from Labour than they are from the Tories, dude who can't read polls. When Labour gains, the Lib Dems lose support, When the Lib Dems gain, Labour loses support, they are not stealing evenly from both parties, it's as plain as day.
Your faith in polls with a range of 8% is misguided.
For legal reasons, we are not threatening to destroy U.S. government property with our glorious medieval siege engine. But if we wanted to, we could. But we won’t. But we could.
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StCapps
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Re: UK election

Post by StCapps » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:43 am

Montegriffo wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:37 am
StCapps wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:33 am
Montegriffo wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:31 am


Well if those figures could translate directly to seats in Parliament (which they can't) then the Tories still don't have a majority.
If you split it along Leave/Remain lines then Remain has a small majority.
The thing is, pro-Brexit voters in the North of England are traditional Labour voters so they have no place to go but the Brexit Party. They will never vote Tory. So the BP is drawing from Tories disappointed at the slow movement of Brexit and Labour leavers who can't bring themselves to vote Tory.
Pro-Remain Tories, likewise, have no place to go but the Lib Dems.

The Lib Dems are drawing from both parties based on their clear anti-Brexit policies and distaste for both Corbyn and Boris.
The Lib Dems are drawing a helluva lot more from Labour than they are from the Tories, dude who can't read polls. When Labour gains, the Lib Dems lose support, When the Lib Dems gain, Labour loses support, they are not stealing evenly from both parties, it's as plain as day.
Your faith in polls with a range of 8% is misguided.
Your faith in the Lib Dems pulling equally from both parties is misguided. Just because you are a Tory who is going to vote Lib Dem doesn't mean you are indicative of large amount of Lib Dem voters, stop projecting.
*yip*

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Montegriffo
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Re: UK election

Post by Montegriffo » Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:06 am

I'm a Tory now? I thought I was a Marxist?
BTW I've never voted Tory or Labour.
I've never voted Lib Dems either, only ever voted Green before.
This election is too important to waste my vote on the Greens though and the Lib Dem aims are closest to mine.
For legal reasons, we are not threatening to destroy U.S. government property with our glorious medieval siege engine. But if we wanted to, we could. But we won’t. But we could.
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StCapps
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Re: UK election

Post by StCapps » Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:23 am

Montegriffo wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:06 am
I'm a Tory now? I thought I was a Marxist?
BTW I've never voted Tory or Labour.
I've never voted Lib Dems either, only ever voted Green before.
This election is too important to waste my vote on the Greens though and the Lib Dem aims are closest to mine.
You never voted for your boy John Major? How odd.

Says this election is too important to waste his vote, and then plans to waste his vote on the Lib Dems and split the pro-EU vote.
:lol:
*yip*

Smitty-48
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Re: UK election

Post by Smitty-48 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:05 am

StCapps wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:23 am
Montegriffo wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:06 am
I'm a Tory now? I thought I was a Marxist?
BTW I've never voted Tory or Labour.
I've never voted Lib Dems either, only ever voted Green before.
This election is too important to waste my vote on the Greens though and the Lib Dem aims are closest to mine.
You never voted for your boy John Major? How odd.

Says this election is too important to waste his vote, and then plans to waste his vote on the Lib Dems and split the pro-EU vote.
:lol:
And what have they done in the wake of Thatcher ?

Nothing, the ball has been handed to America, London fiddles while Britain burns.
Nec Aspera Terrent

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Montegriffo
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Re: UK election

Post by Montegriffo » Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:25 am

StCapps wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:23 am

You never voted for your boy John Major? How odd.

Says this election is too important to waste his vote, and then plans to waste his vote on the Lib Dems and split the pro-EU vote.
:lol:
My particular constituency has been Tory my whole voting life. The only party with a chance of beating them is the Lib Dems. I could never bring myself to vote for this Labour party anyway.
As for Sir John, I had removed myself from the electoral roll as a protest against the milk snatcher's disastrous poll tax in the late 80s so was disenfranchised at the time. I'm not sure if I could have voted Tory even if I wasn't.
Whilst I consider him the best PM in my time that is a low bar and there were still many Tory policies he held that I didn't approve of.

Pragmatic > ideological every time.
For legal reasons, we are not threatening to destroy U.S. government property with our glorious medieval siege engine. But if we wanted to, we could. But we won’t. But we could.
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clubgop
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Re: UK election

Post by clubgop » Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:03 am

Montegriffo wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 10:25 am
StCapps wrote:
Tue Nov 26, 2019 8:23 am

You never voted for your boy John Major? How odd.

Says this election is too important to waste his vote, and then plans to waste his vote on the Lib Dems and split the pro-EU vote.
:lol:
My particular constituency has been Tory my whole voting life. The only party with a chance of beating them is the Lib Dems. I could never bring myself to vote for this Labour party anyway.
As for Sir John, I had removed myself from the electoral roll as a protest against the milk snatcher's disastrous poll tax in the late 80s so was disenfranchised at the time. I'm not sure if I could have voted Tory even if I wasn't.
Whilst I consider him the best PM in my time that is a low bar and there were still many Tory policies he held that I didn't approve of.

Pragmatic > ideological every time.
refusing to vote because of a policy you don't like is the opposite of pragmatic.

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Hastur
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Re: UK election

Post by Hastur » Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:46 am

Not voting in a winner-takes-all system is perfectly rational. Especially if neither of the top candidates represents your values or the outcome is a given. Election turnout is measured so a vote not cast is also counted. Low participation might be a signal that brings forth a new option.
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clubgop
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Re: UK election

Post by clubgop » Wed Nov 27, 2019 3:36 am

Hastur wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:46 am
Not voting in a winner-takes-all system is perfectly rational. Especially if neither of the top candidates represents your values or the outcome is a given. Election turnout is measured so a vote not cast is also counted. Low participation might be a signal that brings forth a new option.
I said policy not lack of choices. But that low participation being taken as a signal. That doesn't fly in this country, the common refrain is "if you don't vote you can't complain." Or you'll just be looked at as plain lazy. There is nothing pragmatic about it.