Meanwhile in Iraq & Syria

[Smitty-48]

Welcome back Smitty!

I agree with you on kinetic military action, not going to happen. With all of the statements being made, I'm interested in what Tillerson and his State Department can do, as that's where any meaningful attempt at influencing this situation will come from.

There's nothing they can do, they'll do "blah-blah-blah", the Russians are propping Assad up, I suppose the Russians can be blamed for it, but it's not like they care, so it will just carry on regardless, with periodic "blah-blah-blah" and "ZOMG!", but no actual actions of consequence.

On the bright side, there's no mandate from the American electorate to do anything about it, so it's not going to cost anything to just stand aside, surely Americans are actually happy for it to be Russia's problem, more power to them, enjoy the quagmire, Russia, so other than defense contractors and the media, there's actual constituency for military action, thus, bluster nothwithstanding, ultimately a non-issue.

[DrYouth]

Calm down, folks, there's not going to be any US military action taken against Assad, regardless of what he does, as the Russians have deployed a comprehensive integrated air defense system to Syria, everything from S1 Panstyr to S-400 Triumf, with Su-35's flying CAP/QRA, not to mention the Russian forces are integrated alongside Assad's forces, thus, the Russians are shielding Assad from any sort of kinetic military action whatsoever, zero chance the US is going to send US forces downtown into the teeth of the Russian IADS, because this ain't the Iraqi's, and the Russians could and would inflict heavy casualties on US forces attempting to do so, and there's no way to hit Assad without killing significant numbers of Russian forces in the process, so there's no viable military option for Trump, the Pentagon would simply tell him how many planes and pilots he was likely to lose in the first wave, and that would be the end of that discussion right there, right thur, full stop.

So long as the Russians are in the way, the US is not going to be able to strike, which is exactly why the Russians have put themselves in the way in the first place.

Lookie who's back in town.
Where you been at ol' bean?

[Smitty-48]

Hmmm. I see the sarin wafted its way to the north side of the lake, like a fake news smelling salt. Happy Spring, Smits, is the sap finally starting to rise?

It's only a Happy Spring if the Leafs both clinch AND avoid the Caps in the first round, otherwise, it's just going to be a run o' the mill Spring, Auston Matthews mania notwithstanding, as that will be more of an ongoing thing, rather than specifically related to this Spring in particular, Matthews; a 6ix God already, regardless of how things turn out in the next week or so.

[Smitty-48]

Lookie who's back in town.
Where you been at ol' bean?

Here and there, out and about, there and back again, operations other than war, as they say.

[adwinistrator]

Welcome back Smitty!

I agree with you on kinetic military action, not going to happen. With all of the statements being made, I'm interested in what Tillerson and his State Department can do, as that's where any meaningful attempt at influencing this situation will come from.

There's nothing they can do, they'll do "blah-blah-blah", the Russians are propping Assad up, I suppose the Russians can be blamed for it, but it's not like they care, so it will just carry on regardless, with periodic "blah-blah-blah" and "ZOMG!", but no actual actions of consequence.

On the bright side, there's no mandate from the American electorate to do anything about it, so it's not going to cost anything to just stand aside, surely Americans are actually happy for it to be Russia's problem, more power to them, enjoy the quagmire, Russia, so other than defense contractors and the media, there's actual constituency for military action, thus, bluster nothwithstanding, ultimately a non-issue.

If anything, at least the Trump administration gets to do a dry run of the "should we go to war" machinery...

Dan Lamothe - Source tells me the Joint Chiefs of Staff are meeting in the tank this afternoon to discuss options on Syria.

But really, this entire situation is a test of our government's diplomatic power. If we're going to sabre-rattle towards Iran and Syria, while trying to work towards greater cooperation with Russia, it will be the State Department doing the heavy lifting, not the Pentagon.

[DrYouth]

Lookie who's back in town.
Where you been at ol' bean?

Here and there, out and about, there and back again, operations other than war, as they say.

Sounds downright civilized.

[Smitty-48]

But really, this entire situation is a test of our government's diplomatic power. If we're going to sabre-rattle towards Iran and Syria, while trying to work towards greater cooperation with Russia, it will be the State Department doing the heavy lifting, not the Pentagon.

I don't think the Russians are concerned either way, they have their agenda, and the US is not in a position to leverage them significantly more than it is already, there's nothing in the US quiver which will force the Russians to abandon their Assad project, if they do that, it will be entirely for their own domestic reasons, which, if they're not suffering heavy casualties, which they're not, there's no pressure to generate such reasons, propping up Assad is popular with Putin's base, the Amercans ain't gonna do shit about it, and so long as there ain't a parade of flag draped coffins coming home, Russians ain't too worried.

[Okeefenokee]

But really, this entire situation is a test of our government's diplomatic power. If we're going to sabre-rattle towards Iran and Syria, while trying to work towards greater cooperation with Russia, it will be the State Department doing the heavy lifting, not the Pentagon.

I don't think the Russians are concerned either way, they have their agenda, and the US is not in a position to leverage them significantly more than it is already, there's nothing in the US quiver which will force the Russians to abandon their Assad project, if they do that, it will be entirely for their own domestic reasons, which, if they're not suffering heavy casualties, which they're not, there's no pressure to generate such reasons, propping up Assad is popular with Putin's base, the Amercans ain't gonna do shit about it, and so long as there ain't a parade of flag draped coffins coming home, Russians ain't too worried.

We were hoping that Americans were coming around to the idea that it wasn't an American necessity to topple every regime around the world that we don't 100% love.

[adwinistrator]

But really, this entire situation is a test of our government's diplomatic power. If we're going to sabre-rattle towards Iran and Syria, while trying to work towards greater cooperation with Russia, it will be the State Department doing the heavy lifting, not the Pentagon.

I don't think the Russians are concerned either way, they have their agenda, and the US is not in a position to leverage them significantly more than it is already, there's nothing in the US quiver which will force the Russians to abandon their Assad project, if they do that, it will be entirely for their own domestic reasons, which, if they're not suffering heavy casualties, which they're not, there's no pressure to generate such reasons, propping up Assad is popular with Putin's base, the Amercans ain't gonna do shit about it, and so long as there ain't a parade of flag draped coffins coming home, Russians ain't too worried.

100% agree, those are the realities.

I'm not sure if Trump and Tillerson have come to terms with that yet, but I have to imagine they will over the next few days of meetings with DoD and JCS.

If they just want to posture and talk big, with no intention of influencing the situation on the ground, they can do that. This would be the same mistake made by the Obama administration, and would have them appear ineffective.

[Speaker to Animals]

But what if we installed people crazy enough to do it?

I'll be man enough to tell GCF he might have been right just before the lights go out.