Meanwhile in Iraq & Syria

[Smitty-48]

The Russians will not be at an advantage militarily when it comes to air-to-air combat. But they can definitely shoot down some of the US fighters. The F-35 isn't operational yet, and the F-22 is an expensive unicorn not worth taking the risk to lose. It will be SU-27s and SU35s against Hornets, Eagles and Falcons.

Of course the coalition has an advantage, both in numbers, sensors, and sensor networking. But the Russians have the advantage in the effect of public disapproval compared to the US if one of their pilots dies. Ten dead American pilots will hurt the public opinion in the US far more than fifty dead Russian pilots in Russia.

Then there's the whole drone warfare thing. US drones are simple to shoot down by the use of SAMs. And it's what the US is relying on in this theater. Russia is very much able to totally stop all drone strikes in Syria, without even launching a fighter. The US is also capable of taking out the SAM-network, but this will definitely lead to casualties among Russian personnel. We can all hope the Russians will just let this slide. But if they don't, they'll respond in a manner which makes American personnel die, and the Americans are for sure not going to let this slide.

Of all the stupid ideas, shooting on Russians ranks almost as high as shooting on Americans.

Pretty good analysis, except for the trite dimissal of the 5Gens, F-22 would be a key enabler, already is, and F-35 is close enough with the block 3i software to be used as well. The 5Gens would actually be used disproportionate to their fewer numbers, they're not Unicorns at all.

How many nukes can they carry?

F-35 can carry 2x B61 internal, 4x B61 external.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Pretty good analysis, except for the trite dimissal of the 5Gens, F-22 would be a key enabler, already is, and F-35 is close enough with the block 3i software to be used as well. The 5Gens would actually be used disproportionate to their fewer numbers, they're not Unicorns at all.

How many nukes can they carry?

F-35 can carry 2x B61 internal, 4x B61 external.

Should be a good seat to watch the world end, somewhere over Western Europe. ICBMs trump billion-dollar toys. Nothing else matters, with Russia.

[Smitty-48]

Should be a good seat to watch the world end, somewhere over Western Europe. ICBMs trump billion-dollar toys. Nothing else matters, with Russia.

But would the Russians go to the matresses, over a dust up in Syria? So you shoot the Russians up in Syria, and they go to the launch keys for that? No.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Should be a good seat to watch the world end, somewhere over Western Europe. ICBMs trump billion-dollar toys. Nothing else matters, with Russia.

But would the Russians go to the matresses, over a dust up in Syria? So you shoot the Russians up in Syria, and they go to the launch keys for that? No.

Probably not, but do you really want to roll those dice? Risk vs Reward.

And, of course, it's never just one incident. There has to be a response from them. Then we respond back. Then something unexpected happens, and the species looks down the barrel again.

[Smitty-48]

Should be a good seat to watch the world end, somewhere over Western Europe. ICBMs trump billion-dollar toys. Nothing else matters, with Russia.

But would the Russians go to the matresses, over a dust up in Syria? So you shoot the Russians up in Syria, and they go to the launch keys for that? No.

Probably not, but do you really want to roll those dice? Risk vs Reward.

And, of course, it's never just one incident. There has to be a response from them. Then we respond back. Then something unexpected happens, and the species looks down the barrel again.

Well you can't just let Mr. Ivan kick you around like a two nickel whore, that would actually just encourage him to do more, until he backs you up against a wall and causes things to go sideways that way instead.

[SuburbanFarmer]

But would the Russians go to the matresses, over a dust up in Syria? So you shoot the Russians up in Syria, and they go to the launch keys for that? No.

Probably not, but do you really want to roll those dice? Risk vs Reward.

And, of course, it's never just one incident. There has to be a response from them. Then we respond back. Then something unexpected happens, and the species looks down the barrel again.

Well you can't just let Mr. Ivan kick you around like a two nickel whore, that would actually just encourage him to do more, until he backs you up against a wall and causes things to go sideways that way instead.

That's quite preferable to ending the world.

[Smitty-48]

Probably not, but do you really want to roll those dice? Risk vs Reward.

And, of course, it's never just one incident. There has to be a response from them. Then we respond back. Then something unexpected happens, and the species looks down the barrel again.

Well you can't just let Mr. Ivan kick you around like a two nickel whore, that would actually just encourage him to do more, until he backs you up against a wall and causes things to go sideways that way instead.

That's quite preferable to ending the world.

But that's how the world ends too, because when America hits back against the wall, coming out swinging is gonna happen, so before you ever get there, you're going to need to give them shot upside the head, just to let them know that you ain't playun', cause, they're Russians, they're macho, they'll keep pushing and shoving, so at some point, you have to back them the fuck off, so it doesn't ever come to back against a wall.

[Smitty-48]

See, if you invoke the nuclear weapons, you invoke the balance of terror, operating words being balance and terror, so you cant ever let yourself become so terrorized by their nuclear weapons, that you just keep backing off while they kick you around like a two nickel whore, because then it goes off balance, and that is actually the most direct route to a nuclear exchange.

It's an inherently dangerous game, exitential in fact, true enough, but it only becomes even more so, if you don't rise to meet them when they challenge you. There is no safe, the whole thing is a high risk gambit at all times, but you have no choice but to play this dangerous game, there is no getting out, you have to maintain the balance, so the terror must be invoked, whenever you get pushed, you have to push back, lest the deterence regime break down, and things go sideways by default.

Deterence rests on one thing and one thing only, the utter surety in the hearts and minds of the adversary, that you will go all the way if push ever comes to shove, if they ever come to doubt it, that is the most dangerous thing of all.

Can't be any slack in the system, if you quail in the face of their terror, if you don't rise to meet them whenever they challenge, you're letting slack in, and that will just grow, until there is so much slack, that somebocy could fly MIRV's through it, yes, probably by mistake, but those sorts of mistakes could only happen, if it got slacked off instead of balanced.

When you're talking a nuclear deterence regime which is as necessarily balanced as this one, panty waisting, peacenicking, and pussing out, doesn't actually make you safer, quite the opposite, contrary to the ill advised opinions of panty waists, peaceniks, and pussies, you'd actually be playing with nuclear fire.

[SuburbanFarmer]

There has to be a reaolution at some point. This can't last forever. The doomsday clock is real.

[The Conservative]

There has to be a reaolution at some point. This can't last forever. The doomsday clock is real.

The doomsday clock is about as real as a unicorn... the people who control the doomsday clock know shit about what's going on 99% of the time. the 1% they do, they are guessing.

When Russia was playing with missiles in Cuba, we should have had the clock at a second before midnight, because that is almost exactly how close we were to going to war... my Papa worked in MITRE as a director at that time, and he was not allowed to leave until the crisis had been adverted, or we had gone to war. We weren't minutes away from it till Russia blinked, we were less than a minute...

As they say, "Ivan Blinked"... almost too late.

There were other times too, and you won't hear about them, the clock won't move and if it does, it's to fall off the wall because of the nuke that just landed in the area...

If you want to play ball with Russia, you are going to get a black eye... but it's better than being dead.