Monte Hall Hoax

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Fife
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Fife » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:37 pm

The "always switch" strategy obtains in all games of n doors where n>2. All of them. Even a jilliony-jillion-googol doors.

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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:40 pm

Fife wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 7:21 pm
The doors aren't reshuffled before the player makes his choice to stick or switch. The array is static.

You could come up with a game where the bag is constantly shaken, so to speak. No problema. But that's not the game being discussed.
Damn, dude; you did not waver. Here I was trying to prove there’s a god, which you believe, and you wouldn’t let me troll it.
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Hanarchy Montanarchy
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:43 pm

Fife wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:37 pm
The "always switch" strategy obtains in all games of n doors where n>2. All of them. Even a jilliony-jillion-googol doors.
I am not certain the Monty Hall game counts as a n>2 game when you make your second guess.
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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:52 pm

Fife wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:37 pm
The "always switch" strategy obtains in all games of n doors where n>2. All of them. Even a jilliony-jillion-googol doors.
If there was life on the original pick, that would prove there’s a god.
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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:15 pm

Here’s my God Lives logic:
The odds of a human being springing into existence are in the jilliony-jillion-googol range, meaning God did it, but that same kind of number lends itself to evolution theory.

However, as I’ve pointed out before: the odds against hemoglobin is greater than the number of atoms in the universe, which may be a jilliony-jillion-googol?
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:26 pm

Statistics is a religion. :snooty:

Anyway, I think the solution to the Monty paradox is so fucking stupid that smart people don't think of it.

I choose a door. 1/3 odds.

Monty shows me a goat - my first door is still 1/3, but the new door is 2/3 chance of car.

Extend that reasoning - Monty opens another door. Maybe it is a goat, maybe it is a car - but either way I am absolutely, 100% certain what is behind the door I initially chose, not 33% certain.
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Martin Hash
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:27 pm

That was the most satisfying MM in years.

I was hoping this one or the “General Theory” one would catch. I even tweeked the General Theory to make it more provocative.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:30 pm

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:26 pm
Statistics is a religion. :snooty:

Anyway, I think the solution to the Monty paradox is so fucking stupid that smart people don't think of it.

I choose a door. 1/3 odds.

Monty shows me a goat - my first door is still 1/3, but the new door is 2/3 chance of car.

Extend that reasoning - Monty opens another door. Maybe it is a goat, maybe it is a car - but either way I am absolutely, 100% certain what is behind the door I initially chose, not 33% certain.
That’s good too; sew doubt with irrefutable logic.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Hanarchy Montanarchy » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:33 pm

Bruh, I think you are 100% right on the Monty Hall situation, and, what is more, I think you have the logic, math, and programming chops to prove it.

DB is right, disproving 30 years of Monty Hall bullshit could actually make you famous.
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Re: Monte Hall Hoax

Post by Martin Hash » Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:35 pm

Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote:
Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:33 pm
Bruh, I think you are 100% right on the Monty Hall situation, and, what is more, I think you have the logic, math, and programming chops to prove it.

DB is right, disproving 30 years of Monty Hall bullshit could actually make you famous.
Proving there is a god would have done it too.
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