Dr. Martin Hash Podcast

Reminding people that no one can predict the future is a Fool's Errand; getting a glimpse into what will happen next is one of life's biggest entertainments. That's why soothsayers, such as “public intellectual” Nicholas Taleb, gets away with his ridiculous “systemic risk” argument. That hogwash reasoning is often central to the "we must do something about Climate Change” refrain, and goes like this: Climate Change is so big, and so horrific, that no matter how small the chance that it might happen, we must assume it will happen, and do whatever we have to.

It's not just the fortune telling that undermines such dishonest reasoning, it's the applicability to almost anything. How about the chance of the volcanic basin in Yellowstone National Park erupting, or the great California earthquake, or a meteorite strike? Applying this same logic to Muslims: if there's even a tiny chance that 1.6 billion Muslims plan to take over the world, form a theocracy and subjugate women then we must assume it will happen, and act accordingly. Systemic Risk arguments sound plausible to the illogical, but it's an easy step to preparing for space aliens attacking Earth.