THE ERA OF TRUMP

[StCapps]

OK, I guess you will be saying "Not the fuck again, ssu!" when the talk was economics, but nope, have to point it out:

President-elect Donald J. Trump said on Twitter on Thursday that the United States should greatly “expand its nuclear capability,” appearing to embrace an end to decades of bipartisan presidential efforts to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in American defenses and strategy.

Mr. Trump’s midafternoon post may have been a response to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who in a speech earlier on Thursday called for continued improvement of his country’s nuclear abilities so Russia can “reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defense systems.”

Shortly after Mr. Putin’s comments were reported by the news media, Mr. Trump said on Twitter that the United States must “strengthen and expand” its nuclear forces “until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” He did not elaborate.

See Trump Says U.S. Should ‘Expand Its Nuclear Capability’

Sorry... Trump, Putin and nukes. Have the urge comment.

I'll guess "the honeymoon" won't even start if things are going like this. Because no, I don't think that Trump just got that idea for that tweet from the Chinese. It's a response to what Putin said earlier. See Putin: Russia’s military is stronger than any potential foe

Nuclear Hitler because of a tweet? Simmer the fuck down Dan Carlin.

[TheReal_ND]

It's a good post though. I like the pictures.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Well damn, I didn't know you were so versed in this. So give us your thesis then. You see no carryover from 2008 happening here? System isn't broken, just sleepy? Super bond debts are going to be fine in raising-rate environment?

The system is broken, but totally another thing is when it will actually brake. It simply morphs into another crisis. First it was housing. Then it was Greece. Next time, who knows, Japan? There's a huge bubble in bonds also. Yet one thing is to have a bubble, another thing is to know when it will burst.

Take example of Peter Schiff. He could extremely well forecast what would happen with the housing bubble in 2006. If you have seen the movie "The big Short", this is a similar thing as given in a speech in November 2006 to realtors, which is extremely ironic. It's a long speech, but I find it quite historical.



Now what's the problem with Mr.Schiff? Well, Mr Schiff then thought that the next thing would be a dollar collapse. That then there would be inflation and hyperinflation as the fiscal policy of the US is simply going to break at some time. Well, it didn't happen. Now it has to be said, that the argument he made is actually quite sound. It's just something that hasn't happened yet. This made him a "Permabear" when he basically preaches all the time that the dollar would collapse. Well, it's starts to be a rather long time now from the financial crash.

The reason why all those trillions made up from thin air by the Fed and pumped into the system didn't create inflation is because the money stayed in the financial system. It didn't go into the real economy. Those trillions of dollars didn't end up paying salaries of workers, but just holding up the balance sheets of otherwise bankrupt banks. And the US exported that inflation.

Also, you'll need to explain your point here:

The problem is that the most important price in a capitalist system there is, the price of money, isn't given by the market mechanism, but by central banks who invent it. That's the basic flaw here.

Ok. The problem is that central banks give us what the interest rate is. They want to "jump start" the economy by lowering rates, and to "tighten" economic growth with higher rates if the economy is "boiling over". Now actually this ought to be something that the market mechanism does By itself. Yet the politicians don't want that. Hence the problem is that the market mechanism, the simple supply and demand mechanism that makes prices go up or down isn't working here. Hence it's a World that is totally manipulated, where you have the central banks intervening even in the stock market. Every market.

If you ask me, I'm still a gold bug. Have some percentage of my portfolio in gold. I think I will live to see the system crisis where gold is a good thing to own. Now it's not going to be anything apocalyptic, just a crisis of the whole system, like when Nixon went off the gold standard.



The Nixon speech is actually very educational. Because that's the way how politicians will tell about the crisis: it's the evil speculators, or the evil foreigners, basically anyone else but them, who are the real culprits.

Love it. Just watched the Big Short for the 3rd time earlier this week.

So, I'm not sure where you think I'm wrong. It looks like you just validated every talking point I've been spewing, and getting called "Commie Catstro" over. You seem to have a slightly more optimistic view of the next big Crash, but that's about the only difference....

Did I just not make my points clearly enough?

[ssu]

Nuclear Hitler because of a tweet? Simmer the fuck down Dan Carlin.

Strawman argument, Capps.

Saying that Trump is communicating with Putin. Doesn't have anything to do with Hitler.

[ssu]

Love it. Just watched the Big Short for the 3rd time earlier this week.

So, I'm not sure where you think I'm wrong. It looks like you just validated every talking point I've been spewing, and getting called "Commie Catstro" over. You seem to have a slightly more optimistic view of the next big Crash, but that's about the only difference....

Did I just not make my points clearly enough?

I don't think your wrong. And I'm not calling you names.

The only thing I'm pointing out is that if there actually is risk of a system collapse, that doesn't mean that the system will collapse anytime soon. And even if it does collapse, it's not a collapse of the society. Yeah, I'm optimistic.

There real sinister things are when such an economic crisis is tangled up with a severe political crisis. Then it can get ugly.

[SuburbanFarmer]

Love it. Just watched the Big Short for the 3rd time earlier this week.

So, I'm not sure where you think I'm wrong. It looks like you just validated every talking point I've been spewing, and getting called "Commie Catstro" over. You seem to have a slightly more optimistic view of the next big Crash, but that's about the only difference....

Did I just not make my points clearly enough?

I don't think your wrong. And I'm not calling you names.

The only thing I'm pointing out is that if there actually is risk of a system collapse, that doesn't mean that the system will collapse anytime soon. And even if it does collapse, it's not a collapse of the society. Yeah, I'm optimistic.

There real sinister things are when such an economic crisis is tangled up with a severe political crisis. Then it can get ugly.

We seem to have one of those brewing, you may have noticed...

[StCapps]

Nuclear Hitler because of a tweet? Simmer the fuck down Dan Carlin.

Strawman argument, Capps.

Saying that Trump is communicating with Putin. Doesn't have anything to do with Hitler.

Posting a picture of a nuke exploding and Trump in foreground is playing into the whole Trump is Nuclear Hitler meme Dan Carlin and the MSM was peddling. You are concern trolling over the world getting nuked because of a tweet. Ridiculous posturing.

[ssu]

Posting a picture of a nuke exploding and Trump in foreground is playing into the whole Trump is Nuclear Hitler meme Dan Carlin and the MSM was peddling. You are concern trolling over the world getting nuked because of a tweet. Ridiculous posturing.

So you looked at the picture. Bravo.

Next time read what others write.

[StCapps]

Posting a picture of a nuke exploding and Trump in foreground is playing into the whole Trump is Nuclear Hitler meme Dan Carlin and the MSM was peddling. You are concern trolling over the world getting nuked because of a tweet. Ridiculous posturing.

So you looked at the picture. Bravo.

Next time read what others write.

You implied Trump was fucking up and the honeymoon isn't going to last long if he keeps doing things like tweeting things about strengthening America's nuclear capabilities, then posted a picture of Trump and a mushroom cloud.

Excuse me for taking that to be more Nuclear Hitler BS, where could I ever have gotten that idea from?

[ssu]

You implied Trump was fucking up and the honeymoon isn't going to last long if he keeps doing things like tweeting things about strengthening America's nuclear capabilities, then posted a picture of Trump and a mushroom cloud.

Excuse me for taking that to be more Nuclear Hitler BS, where ever could I gotten that idea from?

It's not Goddam "fucking up" if the incoming President responds with such a tweet the way he did after Putin said:

Russia's military today can overpower any potential foe but should strengthen its nuclear arsenal, President Vladimir Putin told an annual end-of-year meeting Thursday with defense chiefs."We can say with certainty: We are stronger now than any potential aggressor," he told the meeting. "Anyone!"

(See earlier link)

It's a good response, not a "fuck up" by a "Nuclear Hitler" you imagine me saying, because you assume that I hate the guts of Trump and that I am in every way against him. Not so. And yes, it is an assumption that Trump tweeted back to Putin. Because one thing is sure that he just didn't abruptly think about nukes and then make a tweet about their role casually.

If I then say that the honeymoon might be over before it started, you just assume I'm saying that Trump is fucking things up. Well, there shouldn't be any honeymoon. Now Trump can hold up a carrot of good relations to Putin, have Tillerson ready to give that needed technological help that Russian oil sector just dies to have (and will have severe problems without) if Putin behaves well. If he doesn't, then make him notice that you can take the line of Mad Dog Mattis and others any time you want.

Stop assuming what people think, you'll just have strawman arguments.