THE ERA OF TRUMP

[Speaker to Animals]

The previous crash was a two-parter. It began in mid-2000s as a result of the combination of slowing technology investment and the first impact of mass offshoring of jobs upon macro-demand. Things started to stabilize a bit until September the following year when the impact of 9-11 impacted the markets.

In my opinion, we never really recovered. Businesses and banks recovered. The average American did not. From there it was one long decline in real wages and job prospects. The 2008 debacle didn't help. But Obama was the guy who really fucked us over with his "stimulus" plan that did nothing but enrich his donors at our expenses, his continued offshored job treaties that wrecked the middle class, and his running up of the national debt to near WW2 levels for no good reason whatsoever.

It's not clear our economy can survive Bush and Obama without a second great depression.

[ssu]

The previous crash was a two-parter. It began in mid-2000s as a result of the combination of slowing technology investment and the first impact of mass offshoring of jobs upon macro-demand. Things started to stabilize a bit until September the following year when the impact of 9-11 impacted the markets.

Ummm.... I have to disagree.

It was a classic housing bubble. Housing bubbles happen when the banking sector goes crazy, either because of deregulation or because they find a way to create new ways to pump money into the market. The craziness happens because of banking itself: the bigger you are, the better. And once you don't have anymore reliable customers, then somebody has to choose the unreliable ones and dump money to them. As houses & real estate cannot be made by robots in China, the economic impact is huge...to the real economy. And so is the impact when the bubble bursts, when the banking sector freezes and all those builders find themselves out of work. That's why housing bubbles are the worst.

In my opinion, we never really recovered. Businesses and banks recovered. The average American did not.

Yes, I agree with this. But you see, you let Wall Street control things. Just look who was the Secretary of Treasury back then. People could have gone to jail, you know. At least that would have given more credibility to the system, if not anything else.

But Obama was the guy who really fucked us over with his "stimulus" plan that did nothing but enrich his donors at our expenses, his continued offshored job treaties that wrecked the middle class, and his running up of the national debt to near WW2 levels for no good reason whatsoever.

I don't find any difference with the Bush administration on this issue.

[SuburbanFarmer]

It was a classic housing bubble. Housing bubbles happen when the banking sector goes crazy, either because of deregulation or because they find a way to create new ways to pump money into the market. The craziness happens because of banking itself: the bigger you are, the better. And once you don't have anymore reliable customers, then somebody has to choose the unreliable ones and dump money to them. As houses & real estate cannot be made by robots in China, the economic impact is huge...to the real economy. And so is the impact when the bubble bursts, when the banking sector freezes and all those builders find themselves out of work. That's why housing bubbles are the worst.

Well damn, I didn't know you were so versed in this. So give us your thesis then. You see no carryover from 2008 happening here? System isn't broken, just sleepy? Super bond debts are going to be fine in raising-rate environment?

Also, you'll need to explain your point here:

The problem is that the most important price in a capitalist system there is, the price of money, isn't given by the market mechanism, but by central banks who invent it. That's the basic flaw here.

[Speaker to Animals]

The previous crash was a two-parter. It began in mid-2000s as a result of the combination of slowing technology investment and the first impact of mass offshoring of jobs upon macro-demand. Things started to stabilize a bit until September the following year when the impact of 9-11 impacted the markets.

Ummm.... I have to disagree.

It was a classic housing bubble. Housing bubbles happen when the banking sector goes crazy, either because of deregulation or because they find a way to create new ways to pump money into the market. The craziness happens because of banking itself: the bigger you are, the better. And once you don't have anymore reliable customers, then somebody has to choose the unreliable ones and dump money to them. As houses & real estate cannot be made by robots in China, the economic impact is huge...to the real economy. And so is the impact when the bubble bursts, when the banking sector freezes and all those builders find themselves out of work. That's why housing bubbles are the worst.

In my opinion, we never really recovered. Businesses and banks recovered. The average American did not.

Yes, I agree with this. But you see, you let Wall Street control things. Just look who was the Secretary of Treasury back then. People could have gone to jail, you know. At least that would have given more credibility to the system, if not anything else.

But Obama was the guy who really fucked us over with his "stimulus" plan that did nothing but enrich his donors at our expenses, his continued offshored job treaties that wrecked the middle class, and his running up of the national debt to near WW2 levels for no good reason whatsoever.

I don't find any difference with the Bush administration on this issue.

Yoout are talking about 2008. I was talking about 2000..

[TheReal_ND]

Is this the new normal?

[Speaker to Animals]

Is this the new normal?

Ivanka is pretty popular and well liked. Doing it on a plane is one of the few safe places to accost her without somebody slapping the progressivism out of you.

[ssu]

Well damn, I didn't know you were so versed in this. So give us your thesis then. You see no carryover from 2008 happening here? System isn't broken, just sleepy? Super bond debts are going to be fine in raising-rate environment?

The system is broken, but totally another thing is when it will actually brake. It simply morphs into another crisis. First it was housing. Then it was Greece. Next time, who knows, Japan? There's a huge bubble in bonds also. Yet one thing is to have a bubble, another thing is to know when it will burst.

Take example of Peter Schiff. He could extremely well forecast what would happen with the housing bubble in 2006. If you have seen the movie "The big Short", this is a similar thing as given in a speech in November 2006 to realtors, which is extremely ironic. It's a long speech, but I find it quite historical.



Now what's the problem with Mr.Schiff? Well, Mr Schiff then thought that the next thing would be a dollar collapse. That then there would be inflation and hyperinflation as the fiscal policy of the US is simply going to break at some time. Well, it didn't happen. Now it has to be said, that the argument he made is actually quite sound. It's just something that hasn't happened yet. This made him a "Permabear" when he basically preaches all the time that the dollar would collapse. Well, it's starts to be a rather long time now from the financial crash.

The reason why all those trillions made up from thin air by the Fed and pumped into the system didn't create inflation is because the money stayed in the financial system. It didn't go into the real economy. Those trillions of dollars didn't end up paying salaries of workers, but just holding up the balance sheets of otherwise bankrupt banks. And the US exported that inflation.

Also, you'll need to explain your point here:

The problem is that the most important price in a capitalist system there is, the price of money, isn't given by the market mechanism, but by central banks who invent it. That's the basic flaw here.

Ok. The problem is that central banks give us what the interest rate is. They want to "jump start" the economy by lowering rates, and to "tighten" economic growth with higher rates if the economy is "boiling over". Now actually this ought to be something that the market mechanism does By itself. Yet the politicians don't want that. Hence the problem is that the market mechanism, the simple supply and demand mechanism that makes prices go up or down isn't working here. Hence it's a World that is totally manipulated, where you have the central banks intervening even in the stock market. Every market.

If you ask me, I'm still a gold bug. Have some percentage of my portfolio in gold. I think I will live to see the system crisis where gold is a good thing to own. Now it's not going to be anything apocalyptic, just a crisis of the whole system, like when Nixon went off the gold standard.



The Nixon speech is actually very educational. Because that's the way how politicians will tell about the crisis: it's the evil speculators, or the evil foreigners, basically anyone else but them, who are the real culprits.

[ssu]

Yoout are talking about 2008. I was talking about 2000..

Ah, the tech bubble. But still, it also was a bubble created by debt. It goes basically like this:

- First banks (and the financial sector) give money or make IPO's to sound enterprises that can make actual profits like some Google or Ebay.
- after those, then some banks (and financial sector participants) give money to enterprises that aren't so great. Then it's the scams. The clueless ones.
- as stocks rise in general, the risks are low, hence it's profitable to be "aggressive" and go for what later can be seen as being totally unrealistic
- then you have ordinary people waiting in lines to buy stock. Taxi drivers giving stock tips. Your distant cousing that lives on a farm in Ohio buying stock.

That some Tulips are more expensive than others might have been a totally sound idea at first in Netherlands too at the time.

[ssu]

OK, I guess you will be saying "Not the fuck again, ssu!" when the talk was economics, but nope, have to point it out:

President-elect Donald J. Trump said on Twitter on Thursday that the United States should greatly “expand its nuclear capability,” appearing to embrace an end to decades of bipartisan presidential efforts to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in American defenses and strategy.

Mr. Trump’s midafternoon post may have been a response to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who in a speech earlier on Thursday called for continued improvement of his country’s nuclear abilities so Russia can “reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defense systems.”

Shortly after Mr. Putin’s comments were reported by the news media, Mr. Trump said on Twitter that the United States must “strengthen and expand” its nuclear forces “until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes.” He did not elaborate.

See Trump Says U.S. Should ‘Expand Its Nuclear Capability’

Sorry... Trump, Putin and nukes. Have the urge comment.

I'll guess "the honeymoon" won't even start if things are going like this. Because no, I don't think that Trump just got that idea for that tweet from the Chinese. It's a response to what Putin said earlier. See Putin: Russia’s military is stronger than any potential foe

[TheReal_ND]

Dan started it.