Hanarchy Montanarchy wrote: Wed Apr 15, 2020 5:17 pm
I am out of my depth here, but as I understand it, the failure of the League of Nations is tied to the failure of the Treaty of Versailles. They were too inextricably tied together, and so punitive that they all but ensured more conflict. I don't believe this invalidates the concept of a multi-lateral diplomatic organization.
I agree that the existence of nuclear weapons has been a major deterrent, but I don't know if you can exorcise international bodies like NATO or the UN that used sanction and diplomacy to halt nuclear proliferation. Perhaps everything would have proceeded exactly the same without them, but I doubt it.
Knowing basically nothing about post Napoleonic Wars European diplomacy, I can't say much. I will say that, as with everything, past failures inform future successes.
The saying isn't "if at first you don't succeed, meh, fuck it, it is too hard, and probably gay anyway."
I realize that missile shields are kind a pork pipe dream, but I have often wondered what would happen if they were invented and became highly effective.
It would sort of put us back to square one in a lot of ways. Like, Great Powers could wage economic wars and stuff, but they'd have to mobilize again right and invade each other?
In that War book Dan Carlin mentioned, Dyer talked about how if we fought a non nuclear (or post nuclear) war with another Great Power, that we'd lose all the awesome shit fast. The fighters etc, and we would not be able to replenish them quickly enough. Adjusted for inflation I think I read that F-15's are like 100 times more expensive than the fighters of WW2. They also take a long time to make. I have no idea about the F-35's but I'm sure they cost an insane amount to produce one. What would happen if both sides ran out of fancy gear?
During the Yom Kippur War Israel vs Syria and Egypt were getting backed by Russia and America and they were just losing hundreds of tanks out there in the desert. They lost a shitload of equipment in a matter of hours. The Shah had I want to say the fourth largest army in the World before he got kicked out. He bought record numbers of top notch tanks and fighters from Britain and America. His logistics were shit and all but he still had an incredible force on paper. Now fast forward like 10 years later to the Iran Iraq War. No parts for the cool toys because the Shah is gone and America has an embargo against Iran. So they have to resort to human wave attacks against Saddam. They were getting kids to do Stalingrad style charges against the Iraqis. They went back in time to WW1 basically. Paths of Glory in the 80's.
Imagine two nuclear armed powers fighting a ground war in 2030 where we have to resort back to Verdun type stuff. This might be a retarded thought idk, but I've often pictured how a ground war would go down if America fought China or Russia. I wonder if it could even reach that point.